All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | |
NIC Stomp |
Penn Invitational |
Manchester Invitational |
Wildcat Classic |
Minutemen Invitational |
New Prairie Invitational |
New Haven Invitational |
NIC / NLC |
Riley Sectional |
Elkhart Regional |
New Haven Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | |
8/21 |
8/28 |
9/4 |
9/11 |
9/11 |
9/18 |
9/25 |
10/2 |
10/9 |
10/16 |
10/23 |
10/30 |
| Team Rating |
405 |
405 |
322 |
299 |
346 |
|
577 |
482 |
523 |
467 |
438 |
408 |
415 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | |
405 |
322 |
299 |
303 |
|
491 |
399 |
438 |
457 |
438 |
408 |
415 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating |
NIC Stomp |
Penn Invitational |
Manchester Invitational |
Wildcat Classic |
Minutemen Invitational |
New Prairie Invitational |
New Haven Invitational |
NIC / NLC |
Riley Sectional |
Elkhart Regional |
New Haven Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| 59 |
Mariano Retzloff |
12 |
16:22 |
16:17 |
16:02 |
15:56 |
15:44 |
|
16:47 |
16:12 |
16:44 |
16:33 |
16:37 |
16:32 |
16:20 |
| 114 |
Carter Kaser |
12 |
16:39 |
16:19 |
16:04 |
16:01 |
15:49 |
|
|
|
|
17:06 |
16:58 |
16:43 |
16:51 |
| 244 |
Nick Probst |
11 |
17:11 |
17:26 |
16:49 |
17:04 |
17:11 |
|
17:30 |
17:08 |
17:11 |
17:20 |
17:18 |
17:01 |
17:07 |
| 257 |
Jason Juarez |
11 |
17:14 |
17:20 |
17:37 |
16:56 |
|
|
17:48 |
17:19 |
17:10 |
17:13 |
17:04 |
17:08 |
17:14 |
| 356 |
Hudson Kaser |
10 |
17:29 |
17:24 |
17:27 |
17:19 |
17:07 |
|
17:25 |
17:30 |
17:40 |
|
17:30 |
17:36 |
17:31 |
| 445 |
Elijah Poorman |
11 |
17:41 |
17:28 |
17:14 |
|
17:47 |
|
17:44 |
17:46 |
17:47 |
17:36 |
17:35 |
17:41 |
17:50 |
| 787 |
Will Mickelson |
10 |
18:15 |
18:36 |
|
18:58 |
18:37 |
|
18:09 |
17:55 |
18:06 |
18:04 |
18:06 |
18:26 |
|
| 902 |
Logan Cira |
9 |
18:24 |
18:11 |
18:07 |
18:10 |
18:12 |
|
18:26 |
18:31 |
18:53 |
|
|
|
|
| 994 |
Aidan Probst |
9 |
18:31 |
19:40 |
19:11 |
19:11 |
19:19 |
|
18:59 |
18:40 |
18:21 |
18:07 |
|
|
|
| 999 |
Owen McFarland |
11 |
18:32 |
18:40 |
18:48 |
18:37 |
18:16 |
|
18:28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1,020 |
Joey Rutton |
12 |
18:34 |
|
|
|
|
|
18:32 |
18:31 |
18:35 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,066 |
Jack Ryan |
9 |
18:38 |
19:30 |
18:51 |
18:41 |
18:35 |
|
18:35 |
18:35 |
18:25 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,075 |
Brayden Mammolenti |
11 |
18:39 |
18:37 |
18:20 |
18:12 |
18:32 |
|
18:27 |
19:00 |
18:41 |
|
|
|
19:08 |
| 1,145 |
Noah Schafer |
10 |
18:44 |
19:05 |
17:59 |
18:18 |
18:22 |
21:41 |
20:52 |
18:26 |
20:30 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,244 |
Tyler Rerick |
9 |
18:50 |
19:06 |
18:34 |
18:45 |
18:54 |
|
18:48 |
18:42 |
19:03 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,322 |
Declan O'Donnell |
11 |
18:57 |
18:57 |
20:26 |
19:05 |
19:04 |
|
18:13 |
19:04 |
18:41 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,324 |
Brandon Mueller |
10 |
18:57 |
19:41 |
18:53 |
18:52 |
19:06 |
|
18:55 |
18:51 |
18:53 |
|
|
|
|
|
Mikel Cox |
10 |
19:05 |
19:13 |
18:55 |
18:59 |
19:09 |
|
19:16 |
18:54 |
19:10 |
|
|
|
|
|
Nate Pratt |
11 |
19:17 |
18:41 |
18:35 |
19:29 |
|
|
22:59 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
James Schwartz |
9 |
19:32 |
19:15 |
20:14 |
19:41 |
19:21 |
|
19:45 |
18:41 |
19:46 |
|
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
| State Finals |
100% |
18.1 |
450 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
1.9 |
2.7 |
4.1 |
5.8 |
9.1 |
11.9 |
13.9 |
15.1 |
13.2 |
8.5 |
6.1 |
3.8 |
1.7 |
| Semi-State |
100% |
6.9 |
217 |
|
0.0 |
0.7 |
3.2 |
14.1 |
25.9 |
25.3 |
17.3 |
8.2 |
3.4 |
1.3 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
100% |
3.0 |
83 |
1.3 |
6.9 |
85.3 |
6.5 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
1.0 |
28 |
100.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Mariano Retzloff |
100% |
60.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
|
72.4% |
| Carter Kaser |
100% |
98.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
20.8% |
| Nick Probst |
100% |
146.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1% |
| Jason Juarez |
100% |
151.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
| Hudson Kaser |
100% |
168.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
| Elijah Poorman |
100% |
181.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
| Will Mickelson |
100% |
202.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
| Semi-State | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Mariano Retzloff |
100% |
21.0 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
2.3 |
3.1 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
4.4 |
4.8 |
5.1 |
4.9 |
5.3 |
5.9 |
5.4 |
5.7 |
5.3 |
5.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Carter Kaser |
100% |
32.2 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
2.2 |
2.8 |
3.3 |
|
100.0% |
| Nick Probst |
100% |
61.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
99.9% |
| Jason Juarez |
100% |
65.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
99.7% |
| Hudson Kaser |
100% |
84.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
94.8% |
| Elijah Poorman |
100% |
100.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
74.6% |
| Will Mickelson |
100% |
143.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.4% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Mariano Retzloff |
100% |
6.1 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
1.6 |
5.8 |
16.4 |
23.1 |
25.3 |
14.1 |
7.1 |
3.1 |
1.5 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Carter Kaser |
100% |
9.3 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
2.4 |
7.3 |
16.0 |
18.3 |
16.4 |
12.6 |
8.6 |
6.5 |
4.5 |
2.9 |
1.7 |
1.1 |
0.6 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Nick Probst |
100% |
19.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
1.7 |
2.5 |
3.9 |
5.4 |
6.5 |
8.9 |
9.2 |
10.0 |
8.9 |
9.7 |
9.0 |
8.1 |
6.0 |
3.9 |
|
100.0% |
| Jason Juarez |
100% |
20.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
1.7 |
2.3 |
3.1 |
4.6 |
6.5 |
7.3 |
8.5 |
9.3 |
10.2 |
10.6 |
10.1 |
8.9 |
6.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Hudson Kaser |
100% |
25.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
1.8 |
2.6 |
3.7 |
4.8 |
6.8 |
10.4 |
11.8 |
|
100.0% |
| Elijah Poorman |
100% |
30.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
2.1 |
3.8 |
|
100.0% |
| Will Mickelson |
100% |
50.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Mariano Retzloff |
1.0 |
69.4 |
21.2 |
8.2 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Carter Kaser |
2.6 |
2.0 |
28.6 |
30.9 |
30.3 |
7.3 |
1.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Nick Probst |
6.1 |
|
|
0.4 |
2.5 |
16.2 |
28.9 |
29.8 |
16.6 |
3.9 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Jason Juarez |
6.6 |
|
|
0.2 |
1.2 |
8.9 |
21.3 |
29.5 |
27.1 |
7.9 |
2.5 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Hudson Kaser |
8.8 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
1.0 |
4.8 |
15.7 |
36.1 |
19.6 |
10.0 |
5.0 |
2.9 |
1.8 |
1.3 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
| Elijah Poorman |
11.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.2 |
1.4 |
7.1 |
20.1 |
19.4 |
12.9 |
9.9 |
7.8 |
6.6 |
4.5 |
3.7 |
2.8 |
1.6 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
| Will Mickelson |
22.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
2.3 |
3.0 |
4.3 |
6.3 |
9.1 |
9.5 |
10.1 |
11.8 |
10.5 |
8.0 |
|
