Penn
Boys - Girls
2020 - 2021 - 2022
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State Rank #22
New Haven Semi-State Rank #7
Elkhart Central Regional Rank #3
Riley Sectional Rank #3
Most Likely Finish 16th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 3.8%
Advance to State Finals 54.8%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating NIC Stomp Penn Invitational Manchester Invitational Wildcat Classic Minutemen Invitational New Prairie Invitational New Haven Invitational NIC / NLC Riley Sectional Elkhart Regional
Date 8/21 8/28 9/4 9/11 9/11 9/18 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/16
Team Rating 364 386 308 289 335 557 461 503 449 415
Team Adjusted Rating 386 308 289 292 457 365 404 436 415
State RankRunnerSeason Rating NIC Stomp Penn Invitational Manchester Invitational Wildcat Classic Minutemen Invitational New Prairie Invitational New Haven Invitational NIC / NLC Riley Sectional Elkhart Regional
32  Mariano Retzloff 12 16:10 16:15 16:00 15:56 15:43 16:45 16:10 16:41 16:30 16:34
55  Carter Kaser 12 16:20 16:17 16:03 16:00 15:48 17:03 16:55
250  Nick Probst 11 17:10 17:23 16:47 17:02 17:08 17:26 17:05 17:08 17:17 17:14
258  Jason Juarez 11 17:12 17:17 17:33 16:54 17:44 17:16 17:07 17:10 17:00
340  Hudson Kaser 10 17:23 17:20 17:23 17:17 17:05 17:23 17:27 17:37 17:25
428  Elijah Poorman 11 17:34 17:24 17:11 17:43 17:40 17:42 17:44 17:33 17:30
823  Will Mickelson 10 18:13 18:31 18:54 18:32 18:06 17:51 18:02 18:00 18:01
858  Logan Cira 9 18:17 18:06 18:03 18:06 18:09 18:23 18:26 18:49
1,000  Aidan Probst 9 18:27 19:34 19:06 19:07 19:14 18:55 18:35 18:17 18:03
1,019  Owen McFarland 11 18:28 18:35 18:43 18:33 18:12 18:23
1,023  Brayden Mammolenti 11 18:29 18:32 18:16 18:09 18:28 18:23 18:54 18:37
1,024  Joey Rutton 12 18:29 18:29 18:27 18:31
1,102  Jack Ryan 9 18:36 19:23 18:46 18:37 18:31 18:32 18:30 18:21
1,156  Noah Schafer 10 18:39 18:59 17:56 18:15 18:18 21:32 20:46 18:22 20:23
1,236  Tyler Rerick 9 18:45 19:01 18:30 18:41 18:49 18:45 18:37 18:58
1,331  Declan O'Donnell 11 18:52 18:51 20:19 19:01 18:59 18:08 18:59 18:36
1,342  Brandon Mueller 10 18:53 19:34 18:48 18:48 19:01 18:51 18:46 18:48
1,423  Mikel Cox 10 19:00 19:07 18:50 18:55 19:05 19:12 18:48 19:05
Nate Pratt 11 19:05 18:36 18:30 19:24 22:50
James Schwartz 9 19:27 19:09 20:08 19:36 19:15 19:41 18:36 19:40




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 54.8% 15.3 386 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.8 3.1 3.7 4.6 5.3 6.8 6.9 6.4 5.7 4.2 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.1
Semi-State 100% 6.4 202 0.0 3.4 11.2 16.7 23.5 18.8 13.3 8.0 3.2 1.4 0.3 0.0
Regionals 100% 2.7 78 6.9 21.3 66.4 5.4
Sectionals 100% 1.0 27 100.0



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mariano Retzloff 96.7% 35.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.9 92.7% 96.5%
Carter Kaser 84.5% 51.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.3 65.6% 81.9%
Nick Probst 54.8% 143.8 0.0% 0.0%
Jason Juarez 54.8% 145.4 0.0% 0.1%
Hudson Kaser 54.8% 163.1 0.0% 0.0%
Elijah Poorman 54.8% 176.3 0.0% 0.0%
Will Mickelson 54.8% 202.7 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mariano Retzloff 100% 12.9 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.4 3.8 4.7 5.1 6.1 6.8 6.4 6.4 5.9 5.8 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.0 3.6 2.9 3.4 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.5 100.0%
Carter Kaser 100% 19.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.7 1.8 2.2 3.4 3.2 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.6 4.8 5.4 5.4 5.0 4.2 4.0 4.4 3.9 100.0%
Nick Probst 100% 66.7 99.4%
Jason Juarez 100% 68.3 0.0 99.2%
Hudson Kaser 100% 85.0 92.4%
Elijah Poorman 100% 100.0 73.2%
Will Mickelson 100% 145.8 0.5%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mariano Retzloff 100% 4.5 0.3 3.7 6.8 27.4 24.0 17.9 10.2 5.6 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Carter Kaser 100% 6.4 0.0 0.4 1.3 6.3 14.9 20.0 20.0 16.0 10.0 6.7 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Nick Probst 100% 19.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.5 4.7 5.5 6.9 7.4 8.4 8.4 8.1 8.0 8.0 6.9 6.1 4.7 100.0%
Jason Juarez 100% 20.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.9 3.6 4.8 6.0 7.1 7.1 8.0 8.6 8.5 8.2 7.9 6.9 5.0 100.0%
Hudson Kaser 100% 25.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.8 2.3 3.0 3.5 5.0 5.9 6.9 8.3 8.8 100.0%
Elijah Poorman 100% 30.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.3 2.4 3.0 4.0 100.0%
Will Mickelson 100% 54.6 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mariano Retzloff 1.0 74.1 20.0 4.6 1.3
Carter Kaser 1.6 14.1 58.5 17.1 10.1 0.1 0.0
Nick Probst 6.1 0.4 1.4 22.0 23.6 22.3 15.3 8.6 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1
Jason Juarez 6.4 0.2 0.7 18.1 23.0 22.4 18.9 9.0 4.1 2.0 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hudson Kaser 8.9 0.0 1.2 3.2 9.3 15.9 22.6 17.3 12.0 6.9 4.4 3.0 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Elijah Poorman 11.5 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.3 7.8 14.7 15.5 14.9 11.3 8.7 6.8 5.0 3.4 3.1 1.8 1.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Will Mickelson 24.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.9 1.3 2.6 3.0 4.9 7.3 8.3 9.3 9.6 9.6