All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | |
Dave Bannon Invitational |
THSB State Preview |
Eagle Classic |
RH Flashrock Invitational |
Hoosier Crossroads Conference |
Nike Valley Twilight |
Ben Davis Sectional |
Ben Davis Regional |
Shelbyville Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | |
8/28 |
9/4 |
9/11 |
9/18 |
9/25 |
10/2 |
10/9 |
10/16 |
10/23 |
10/30 |
| Team Rating |
241 |
248 |
244 |
219 |
546 |
236 |
270 |
245 |
219 |
231 |
247 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | |
248 |
244 |
219 |
241 |
236 |
270 |
245 |
219 |
231 |
247 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating |
Dave Bannon Invitational |
THSB State Preview |
Eagle Classic |
RH Flashrock Invitational |
Hoosier Crossroads Conference |
Nike Valley Twilight |
Ben Davis Sectional |
Ben Davis Regional |
Shelbyville Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| 40 |
Will Nobbe |
11 |
16:14 |
16:03 |
16:07 |
16:00 |
|
16:12 |
16:22 |
16:20 |
16:14 |
16:10 |
16:16 |
| 51 |
Matthew Helton |
11 |
16:18 |
16:13 |
16:20 |
16:06 |
|
16:15 |
16:28 |
16:12 |
16:21 |
16:24 |
16:18 |
| 77 |
Ryan Handy |
11 |
16:29 |
16:39 |
16:39 |
16:25 |
|
16:24 |
16:33 |
16:32 |
16:13 |
16:33 |
16:28 |
| 98 |
Samuel Spees |
10 |
16:34 |
16:40 |
16:36 |
16:43 |
|
16:39 |
16:36 |
16:37 |
16:23 |
16:30 |
16:28 |
| 154 |
Evan Mayo |
10 |
16:53 |
16:59 |
16:48 |
16:52 |
|
16:55 |
17:13 |
17:01 |
17:01 |
16:43 |
17:09 |
| 229 |
Skyler Cole |
11 |
17:06 |
17:25 |
17:14 |
17:02 |
|
16:59 |
16:59 |
16:54 |
17:07 |
17:06 |
17:22 |
| 238 |
Decatur Dell |
12 |
17:09 |
|
17:09 |
17:32 |
17:07 |
17:01 |
17:06 |
17:13 |
16:55 |
17:21 |
17:03 |
| 285 |
Jack Turnbull |
9 |
17:19 |
17:15 |
17:14 |
17:21 |
17:21 |
17:13 |
17:26 |
|
|
|
|
| 326 |
Joe Spees |
10 |
17:26 |
17:14 |
17:22 |
17:20 |
17:23 |
17:23 |
17:44 |
|
|
|
|
| 348 |
Michael Schilson |
10 |
17:28 |
17:35 |
17:28 |
17:47 |
17:30 |
17:25 |
17:07 |
|
|
|
|
| 359 |
Trey Martin |
11 |
17:29 |
17:26 |
|
17:34 |
17:33 |
17:24 |
17:29 |
|
|
|
|
| 563 |
Caleb Lindsay |
12 |
17:51 |
|
|
|
18:25 |
17:46 |
17:41 |
|
|
|
|
| 589 |
Elijah Bineyard |
10 |
17:54 |
18:22 |
17:59 |
17:56 |
17:54 |
17:46 |
17:45 |
|
|
|
|
| 604 |
Dominick Dell |
10 |
17:55 |
18:09 |
17:44 |
17:52 |
18:05 |
17:57 |
17:47 |
|
|
|
|
| 643 |
Geoffrey Ostrander |
12 |
18:00 |
17:36 |
17:46 |
17:58 |
18:11 |
18:15 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 675 |
Aidan Cole |
9 |
18:03 |
18:27 |
18:19 |
18:19 |
17:50 |
17:54 |
17:51 |
|
|
|
|
| 750 |
Charlie Fisher |
11 |
18:10 |
18:21 |
18:03 |
17:56 |
18:19 |
18:13 |
18:11 |
|
|
|
|
| 952 |
Grant Gogis |
10 |
18:28 |
18:37 |
18:30 |
18:49 |
18:49 |
18:13 |
18:09 |
|
|
|
|
| 978 |
Niyan Patel |
11 |
18:30 |
18:12 |
18:16 |
18:37 |
18:51 |
18:27 |
18:36 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,003 |
Brayden Kenworthy |
11 |
18:32 |
18:17 |
18:19 |
18:27 |
18:19 |
18:42 |
19:14 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,062 |
Fenton Walpole |
12 |
18:38 |
18:52 |
18:37 |
18:27 |
19:02 |
18:33 |
18:31 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,097 |
Jude Watters |
11 |
18:41 |
|
19:30 |
19:06 |
18:41 |
18:28 |
18:08 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,137 |
Nolan Toney |
10 |
18:43 |
19:07 |
18:51 |
19:12 |
18:17 |
18:19 |
18:48 |
|
|
|
|
|
John Bailey |
9 |
19:03 |
|
19:26 |
18:50 |
18:59 |
19:02 |
19:05 |
|
|
|
|
|
Jack Mybeck |
9 |
19:08 |
19:23 |
18:42 |
19:17 |
19:02 |
19:30 |
18:58 |
|
|
|
|
|
Joel Albrecht |
11 |
19:09 |
19:31 |
19:31 |
19:48 |
19:02 |
18:57 |
18:37 |
|
|
|
|
|
Jason Fu |
12 |
19:12 |
|
|
19:12 |
19:12 |
19:07 |
19:18 |
|
|
|
|
|
Jack Schilson |
12 |
19:21 |
|
|
|
|
19:58 |
18:51 |
|
|
|
|
|
Nikolas Leachman |
12 |
19:23 |
|
|
19:05 |
19:58 |
19:48 |
18:55 |
|
|
|
|
|
Gabo Tragesser |
12 |
19:29 |
19:38 |
19:11 |
19:10 |
19:50 |
19:07 |
21:11 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carter Miller |
9 |
19:38 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ben Shuster |
9 |
19:39 |
19:33 |
19:23 |
19:35 |
20:32 |
19:14 |
19:57 |
|
|
|
|
|
Luke Smith |
10 |
19:39 |
|
19:50 |
19:46 |
19:55 |
19:01 |
19:44 |
|
|
|
|
|
Ryan Luke |
11 |
19:41 |
19:20 |
19:04 |
20:38 |
21:18 |
19:17 |
19:45 |
|
|
|
|
|
Jackson Barker |
12 |
19:52 |
20:25 |
20:02 |
19:36 |
20:46 |
|
18:58 |
|
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
| State Finals |
100% |
8.3 |
259 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
1.2 |
2.8 |
5.8 |
12.1 |
22.5 |
16.6 |
11.7 |
8.9 |
6.2 |
4.1 |
3.2 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
| Semi-State |
100% |
4.4 |
137 |
0.4 |
3.1 |
12.1 |
48.5 |
22.6 |
8.8 |
3.2 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
100% |
1.0 |
30 |
99.6 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
1.0 |
18 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Will Nobbe |
100% |
43.8 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
|
91.6% |
| Matthew Helton |
100% |
52.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
|
85.3% |
| Ryan Handy |
100% |
78.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
|
54.7% |
| Samuel Spees |
100% |
89.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
38.0% |
| Evan Mayo |
100% |
120.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.2% |
| Skyler Cole |
100% |
141.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1% |
| Decatur Dell |
100% |
144.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1% |
| Semi-State | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Will Nobbe |
100% |
15.2 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
2.4 |
3.4 |
3.9 |
4.7 |
5.1 |
5.6 |
5.4 |
5.3 |
5.6 |
5.5 |
5.2 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
4.2 |
4.0 |
3.6 |
3.1 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
|
100.0% |
| Matthew Helton |
100% |
18.5 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
2.1 |
2.7 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
4.9 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
4.6 |
4.6 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
|
100.0% |
| Ryan Handy |
100% |
28.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
2.6 |
2.8 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.7 |
3.3 |
3.9 |
3.7 |
|
100.0% |
| Samuel Spees |
100% |
33.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
1.4 |
2.0 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.6 |
|
100.0% |
| Evan Mayo |
100% |
54.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Skyler Cole |
100% |
72.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Decatur Dell |
100% |
75.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Will Nobbe |
100% |
1.6 |
30.4 |
31.8 |
19.5 |
9.9 |
4.8 |
2.1 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Matthew Helton |
100% |
2.4 |
13.3 |
26.0 |
25.1 |
16.4 |
9.4 |
5.2 |
2.7 |
1.2 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Ryan Handy |
100% |
5.0 |
0.7 |
2.9 |
9.9 |
17.8 |
18.3 |
15.7 |
13.2 |
9.4 |
5.9 |
3.2 |
1.5 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Samuel Spees |
100% |
6.3 |
0.1 |
0.9 |
3.6 |
8.7 |
14.6 |
16.7 |
15.9 |
14.3 |
10.5 |
6.3 |
3.8 |
2.6 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Evan Mayo |
100% |
11.2 |
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.4 |
1.4 |
3.3 |
6.3 |
9.6 |
12.1 |
14.0 |
12.6 |
11.1 |
8.2 |
6.6 |
4.8 |
3.7 |
2.2 |
1.5 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Skyler Cole |
100% |
16.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.9 |
2.0 |
3.7 |
5.5 |
7.5 |
8.7 |
9.8 |
10.1 |
9.5 |
8.6 |
7.7 |
6.3 |
5.5 |
4.2 |
2.9 |
2.2 |
1.5 |
|
100.0% |
| Decatur Dell |
100% |
17.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
1.2 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
6.3 |
7.5 |
8.5 |
8.8 |
9.8 |
9.4 |
8.3 |
7.8 |
6.3 |
5.2 |
3.8 |
2.8 |
2.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Will Nobbe |
1.0 |
58.4 |
30.8 |
8.8 |
1.7 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Matthew Helton |
1.5 |
28.3 |
45.6 |
19.6 |
5.3 |
1.1 |
0.2 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Ryan Handy |
3.2 |
1.9 |
8.4 |
34.3 |
34.5 |
17.4 |
3.0 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Samuel Spees |
4.0 |
0.3 |
2.3 |
15.0 |
33.9 |
37.8 |
8.3 |
1.9 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Evan Mayo |
6.0 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.8 |
7.8 |
41.6 |
27.4 |
12.2 |
5.6 |
3.1 |
1.1 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Skyler Cole |
8.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.2 |
3.4 |
15.2 |
22.1 |
20.6 |
15.1 |
11.5 |
8.5 |
2.9 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Decatur Dell |
8.9 |
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
1.7 |
9.9 |
18.6 |
21.5 |
17.0 |
13.9 |
12.1 |
4.1 |
1.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
