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2020 - 2021 - 2022
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State Rank #15
New Haven Semi-State Rank #3
West Noble Regional Rank #2
Northrop Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish 15th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.7%
Top 10 at State Finals 18.1%
Advance to State Finals 95.9%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Huntington Invitational Penn Invitational Marion Invitational West Noble Invitational
Date 8/21 8/28 9/4 9/18
Team Rating 295 308 243 296 471
Team Adjusted Rating 308 243 296 285
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Huntington Invitational Penn Invitational Marion Invitational West Noble Invitational
Addison Knoblauch 10 18:15 18:15 18:15 18:10 18:33
89  Lauren Saddington 10 19:39 19:46 19:36 19:36 19:23
91  Alexis Goebel 9 19:40 19:36 19:41 19:41
190  Elise Peckinpaugh 11 20:17 20:28 19:40 20:23 20:13
435  Anna Denice 12 21:12 21:55 20:47 21:12
444  Arianna Osborn 10 21:15 21:16 21:01 21:14
511  Amelia Faber 12 21:29 21:45
709  Gabrielle Kiess 11 22:01 21:28 21:40 22:49 22:51
721  Audrey Gardner 11 22:02 22:01 21:51 22:28
1,231  Emily Uhrhammer 11 23:08 23:02 23:11 23:11
1,284  Lydia Shaw 9 23:15 21:39 25:30
Sydney Hoff 10 23:38 26:12 23:25 23:11
Kiera Hunter 12 23:46 24:10 23:35 23:39




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 95.9% 13.4 351 0.3 0.5 1.3 2.1 3.4 4.5 6.0 8.3 9.3 10.5 11.3 11.7 10.2 7.6 4.3 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Semi-State 100% 3.6 135 3.6 20.8 28.5 25.7 11.8 5.4 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.1
Regionals 100% 2.2 74 8.5 73.2 13.7 3.7 0.8
Sectionals 100% 2.1 63 9.0 76.3 12.9 1.8



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Addison Knoblauch 100% 9.8 0.2 1.1 4.1 6.3 7.4 8.3 8.5 7.4 8.1 7.4 7.5 6.6 5.3 4.3 3.7 3.4 2.5 1.9 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.3 100.0% 100.0%
Lauren Saddington 96.8% 82.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.6% 76.9%
Alexis Goebel 96.7% 83.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.6% 75.2%
Elise Peckinpaugh 95.9% 135.3 0.0% 5.4%
Anna Denice 95.9% 184.7 0.0% 0.0%
Arianna Osborn 95.9% 186.7 0.0% 0.0%
Amelia Faber 95.9% 193.3 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Addison Knoblauch 100% 2.1 1.4 45.4 35.9 12.3 3.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Lauren Saddington 100% 18.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.5 2.4 2.9 4.5 5.5 5.4 6.4 7.3 6.8 6.8 6.4 5.7 5.5 4.5 4.0 3.4 100.0%
Alexis Goebel 100% 19.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.5 3.0 4.1 4.5 5.2 6.1 6.5 6.6 7.2 6.4 6.2 5.3 4.7 4.6 3.7 100.0%
Elise Peckinpaugh 100% 42.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 92.1%
Anna Denice 100% 86.7 4.8%
Arianna Osborn 100% 90.4 3.3%
Amelia Faber 100% 103.9 0.5%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Addison Knoblauch 100% 1.0 80.0 18.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Lauren Saddington 100% 10.5 0.0 0.7 1.9 3.3 4.8 6.0 7.5 9.2 11.0 10.3 10.4 8.6 7.5 5.8 3.8 3.1 1.7 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Alexis Goebel 100% 10.6 0.0 0.7 1.9 2.9 4.3 6.3 7.4 9.3 10.6 11.1 9.3 9.0 6.9 5.2 4.1 3.1 2.4 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Elise Peckinpaugh 100% 22.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.0 2.4 3.7 4.0 5.7 5.5 6.6 6.9 8.0 7.4 8.0 6.7 100.0%
Anna Denice 100% 38.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.0%
Arianna Osborn 100% 39.7 0.0 0.1 96.8%
Amelia Faber 100% 45.5 0.0 86.7%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Addison Knoblauch 1.0 99.0 0.9 0.1 0.1
Lauren Saddington 8.1 1.5 3.1 5.1 6.5 8.5 11.1 13.1 12.3 10.9 8.2 6.9 5.2 2.8 1.9 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Alexis Goebel 8.3 1.3 2.9 4.7 6.7 8.3 10.0 12.1 12.9 10.8 9.3 7.1 4.7 3.8 2.1 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1
Elise Peckinpaugh 17.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.6 3.3 5.1 5.5 8.1 9.1 10.0 9.8 9.3 10.3 9.5 6.5 5.0 2.4 0.5
Anna Denice 27.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.3 5.4 10.7
Arianna Osborn 28.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.8 7.3
Amelia Faber 32.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.5