Troy
Sun Belt
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#189
Expected Predictive Rating-6.9#275
Pace71.9#110
Improvement+1.7#71

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#205
First Shot-3.1#264
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#73
Layup/Dunks-1.9#241
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#329
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#290
Freethrows+5.6#8
Improvement+2.5#21

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#174
First Shot+1.9#114
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#311
Layups/Dunks-2.2#263
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#50
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#55
Freethrows-2.0#294
Improvement-0.8#259
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 6.1% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 13.8 14.9
.500 or above 43.7% 67.5% 40.4%
.500 or above in Conference 69.1% 79.6% 67.6%
Conference Champion 6.3% 10.3% 5.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 1.0% 3.1%
First Four1.1% 0.5% 1.2%
First Round4.0% 5.8% 3.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.8% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 12.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 63 - 9
Quad 410 - 513 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 129   @ Ohio L 70-88 26%     0 - 1 -12.6 -8.2 -3.1
  Nov 10, 2023 147   @ Oregon St. L 80-81 2OT 30%     0 - 2 +3.0 -6.4 +9.7
  Nov 20, 2023 141   Sam Houston St. L 86-88 OT 51%     0 - 3 -3.5 +1.2 -4.5
  Nov 24, 2023 329   Grambling St. W 80-67 86%     1 - 3 +0.0 +0.7 -0.9
  Nov 27, 2023 225   @ Eastern Kentucky L 76-77 44%     1 - 4 -0.8 +3.2 -4.0
  Dec 01, 2023 263   SIU Edwardsville W 83-60 75%     2 - 4 +14.6 +11.6 +4.8
  Dec 09, 2023 60   @ Dayton L 61-74 12%    
  Dec 19, 2023 77   @ Mississippi L 65-76 14%    
  Dec 21, 2023 225   Eastern Kentucky W 79-75 66%    
  Dec 30, 2023 300   @ Coastal Carolina W 76-73 61%    
  Jan 04, 2024 206   Old Dominion W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 06, 2024 114   Appalachian St. L 69-71 42%    
  Jan 10, 2024 174   Louisiana W 75-73 57%    
  Jan 13, 2024 185   Southern Miss W 75-72 59%    
  Jan 18, 2024 231   @ South Alabama L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 20, 2024 185   @ Southern Miss L 72-75 39%    
  Jan 24, 2024 213   Texas St. W 69-65 64%    
  Jan 27, 2024 231   South Alabama W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 01, 2024 313   @ Georgia Southern W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 03, 2024 204   @ Georgia St. L 71-73 41%    
  Feb 07, 2024 196   Marshall W 78-75 61%    
  Feb 15, 2024 240   Arkansas St. W 76-70 69%    
  Feb 17, 2024 286   Louisiana Monroe W 74-66 77%    
  Feb 22, 2024 240   @ Arkansas St. L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 24, 2024 286   @ Louisiana Monroe W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 28, 2024 174   @ Louisiana L 72-76 37%    
  Mar 01, 2024 213   @ Texas St. L 66-68 43%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.7 1.5 0.5 0.1 6.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.1 3.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 12.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.7 2.9 0.8 0.1 11.3 3rd
4th 0.1 2.5 5.1 3.8 0.6 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 1.2 4.6 3.6 0.6 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.7 4.2 0.8 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 4.5 1.2 0.1 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.6 2.1 0.1 7.9 8th
9th 0.4 3.0 2.6 0.3 6.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 2.8 0.7 0.0 5.2 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 2.2 1.2 0.1 4.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.2 3.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.2 2.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.4 5.5 8.2 10.5 12.0 13.0 12.4 11.4 8.5 5.8 3.5 1.8 0.5 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 94.7% 0.5    0.4 0.1
16-2 81.0% 1.5    1.1 0.4
15-3 48.4% 1.7    0.8 0.7 0.2
14-4 27.5% 1.6    0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 9.6% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.3% 6.3 3.0 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 41.5% 29.3% 12.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.2%
17-1 0.5% 26.3% 26.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-2 1.8% 24.7% 24.7% 13.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.3
15-3 3.5% 13.2% 13.2% 13.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 3.0
14-4 5.8% 9.3% 9.3% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 5.3
13-5 8.5% 7.1% 7.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 7.9
12-6 11.4% 5.3% 5.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 10.8
11-7 12.4% 4.8% 4.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 11.8
10-8 13.0% 3.2% 3.2% 15.8 0.1 0.3 12.6
9-9 12.0% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.3 11.7
8-10 10.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 10.3
7-11 8.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 8.1
6-12 5.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.5
5-13 3.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 3.4
4-14 1.8% 1.8
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.7 95.5 0.0%