South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#143
Expected Predictive Rating-3.3#225
Pace66.8#247
Improvement+1.5#59

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#95
First Shot+0.9#155
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#84
Layup/Dunks-2.3#256
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#132
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#37
Freethrows-2.6#315
Improvement-0.9#277

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#214
First Shot-3.8#289
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#38
Layups/Dunks+1.5#122
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#270
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#333
Freethrows+1.2#113
Improvement+2.3#16
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.5% 42.2% 32.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.7
.500 or above 71.9% 80.6% 58.1%
.500 or above in Conference 92.2% 94.2% 89.0%
Conference Champion 45.4% 49.6% 38.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.8% 1.8%
First Four4.3% 3.0% 6.3%
First Round36.8% 41.1% 30.0%
Second Round3.5% 4.2% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Towson (Neutral) - 61.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 54 - 8
Quad 411 - 315 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 114   Akron L 75-81 53%     0 - 1 -5.4 +4.2 -9.8
  Nov 13, 2023 44   @ Kansas St. L 68-91 13%     0 - 2 -9.4 -1.8 -6.4
  Nov 19, 2023 83   Central Florida L 80-83 32%     0 - 3 +3.2 +10.7 -7.4
  Nov 20, 2023 111   George Mason L 71-73 40%     0 - 4 +1.8 +7.0 -5.3
  Nov 22, 2023 202   @ Southern Miss W 65-54 51%     1 - 4 +12.0 -0.7 +13.7
  Dec 01, 2023 196   Towson W 67-64 61%    
  Dec 05, 2023 108   Kent St. W 73-72 50%    
  Dec 09, 2023 89   Wichita St. L 71-75 34%    
  Dec 20, 2023 149   Wyoming W 71-70 52%    
  Dec 31, 2023 256   North Dakota W 77-68 80%    
  Jan 03, 2024 124   @ Weber St. L 63-68 33%    
  Jan 06, 2024 229   Montana St. W 72-64 76%    
  Jan 11, 2024 278   @ St. Thomas W 71-66 65%    
  Jan 13, 2024 254   @ Denver W 81-78 61%    
  Jan 18, 2024 275   Nebraska Omaha W 79-69 83%    
  Jan 20, 2024 293   @ South Dakota W 78-73 68%    
  Jan 25, 2024 301   UMKC W 74-62 86%    
  Jan 27, 2024 174   @ Oral Roberts L 76-77 45%    
  Feb 01, 2024 215   North Dakota St. W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 04, 2024 293   South Dakota W 81-70 84%    
  Feb 10, 2024 174   Oral Roberts W 79-74 66%    
  Feb 15, 2024 301   @ UMKC W 71-65 69%    
  Feb 17, 2024 275   @ Nebraska Omaha W 76-72 65%    
  Feb 22, 2024 254   Denver W 84-75 79%    
  Feb 24, 2024 278   St. Thomas W 74-63 82%    
  Feb 29, 2024 256   @ North Dakota W 74-71 62%    
  Mar 02, 2024 215   @ North Dakota St. W 74-73 53%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 4.2 9.6 12.4 10.4 6.0 1.9 45.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 5.3 7.9 5.8 2.1 0.3 22.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.2 5.4 2.4 0.3 0.0 13.0 3rd
4th 0.3 2.8 3.6 1.0 0.1 7.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.6 0.7 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.6 0.0 3.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 2.2 3.7 6.7 9.4 12.5 14.6 15.7 14.6 10.8 6.0 1.9 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.9    1.9
15-1 100.0% 6.0    5.9 0.1
14-2 96.9% 10.4    9.7 0.7
13-3 85.2% 12.4    9.6 2.7 0.1
12-4 60.8% 9.6    5.5 3.5 0.5 0.0
11-5 29.0% 4.2    1.3 2.0 0.9 0.1
10-6 6.4% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
9-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 45.4% 45.4 34.0 9.2 1.8 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.9% 79.8% 79.3% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.4 2.5%
15-1 6.0% 70.2% 70.2% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.1 0.1 1.8
14-2 10.8% 62.0% 62.0% 13.6 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.8 0.7 0.0 4.1
13-3 14.6% 52.3% 52.3% 14.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.5 2.0 0.2 6.9
12-4 15.7% 43.8% 43.8% 14.5 0.0 0.7 2.6 3.0 0.6 8.8
11-5 14.6% 33.7% 33.7% 15.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 1.3 9.7
10-6 12.5% 26.2% 26.2% 15.5 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 9.2
9-7 9.4% 18.5% 18.5% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.4 7.7
8-8 6.7% 15.4% 15.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0 5.7
7-9 3.7% 10.6% 10.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4 3.3
6-10 2.2% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.1 2.1
5-11 1.0% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.1 1.0
4-12 0.6% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-13 0.2% 0.2
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 38.5% 38.5% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.2 7.6 11.3 9.9 6.9 61.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 91.7% 9.0 4.1 14.0 4.1 3.3 4.1 14.0 8.3 29.8 9.9