Richmond
Atlantic 10
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.5#90
Expected Predictive Rating+3.1#137
Pace64.3#309
Improvement-0.6#225

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#86
First Shot+8.8#12
After Offensive Rebound-5.4#361
Layup/Dunks+4.2#50
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#37
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#69
Freethrows-3.0#330
Improvement-0.2#196

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#114
First Shot+3.8#69
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#289
Layups/Dunks+8.2#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#349
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#221
Freethrows+1.4#104
Improvement-0.4#231
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.4% 13.4% 9.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.1% 1.6% 0.6%
Average Seed 12.1 11.9 12.5
.500 or above 86.0% 92.0% 79.2%
.500 or above in Conference 76.3% 80.3% 71.8%
Conference Champion 14.4% 16.8% 11.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.2% 2.2%
First Four0.8% 1.1% 0.6%
First Round11.1% 13.0% 8.9%
Second Round3.0% 3.9% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.1% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Away) - 53.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 23 - 53 - 8
Quad 38 - 411 - 12
Quad 48 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 342   VMI W 93-75 96%     1 - 0 +2.9 +6.5 -5.0
  Nov 11, 2023 350   Siena W 90-48 97%     2 - 0 +26.1 +14.0 +13.5
  Nov 15, 2023 97   @ Boston College L 61-68 41%     2 - 1 +0.8 -2.5 +2.7
  Nov 20, 2023 40   Colorado L 59-64 29%     2 - 2 +6.3 -0.2 +5.9
  Nov 21, 2023 126   UNLV W 82-65 61%     3 - 2 +19.5 +15.9 +5.1
  Nov 25, 2023 255   Queens W 90-61 89%     4 - 2 +20.9 +4.3 +13.9
  Nov 29, 2023 84   @ Wichita St. L 68-80 36%     4 - 3 -2.9 +4.2 -7.7
  Dec 02, 2023 315   William & Mary W 88-69 93%     5 - 3 +7.5 +12.8 -3.9
  Dec 06, 2023 143   @ Northern Iowa W 71-70 53%    
  Dec 09, 2023 33   Florida L 72-78 28%    
  Dec 16, 2023 131   Charlotte W 66-60 72%    
  Dec 21, 2023 321   Buffalo W 79-62 95%    
  Dec 30, 2023 325   Lafayette W 73-56 95%    
  Jan 06, 2024 99   St. Bonaventure W 69-65 63%    
  Jan 09, 2024 119   @ Loyola Chicago L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 13, 2024 98   George Mason W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 16, 2024 85   @ Duquesne L 70-74 36%    
  Jan 20, 2024 123   @ Davidson L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 24, 2024 162   George Washington W 79-71 78%    
  Jan 27, 2024 60   Dayton W 66-65 50%    
  Jan 31, 2024 170   @ Fordham W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 03, 2024 93   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 65-68 40%    
  Feb 10, 2024 200   La Salle W 77-67 82%    
  Feb 14, 2024 133   Massachusetts W 75-69 71%    
  Feb 17, 2024 162   @ George Washington W 76-74 59%    
  Feb 21, 2024 173   @ Rhode Island W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 24, 2024 123   Davidson W 72-66 68%    
  Feb 28, 2024 188   @ Saint Louis W 75-71 63%    
  Mar 02, 2024 93   Virginia Commonwealth W 68-65 61%    
  Mar 06, 2024 96   Saint Joseph's W 71-67 61%    
  Mar 09, 2024 98   @ George Mason L 67-69 42%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.4 3.9 2.1 0.7 0.1 14.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.8 2.5 0.7 0.1 12.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.7 5.2 2.7 0.3 0.0 11.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 5.3 3.0 0.4 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.5 3.9 3.7 0.5 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 5.0 1.2 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.2 2.1 0.2 7.1 7th
8th 0.2 2.5 3.3 0.4 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 3.6 1.1 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.4 2.5 2.0 0.1 5.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 2.1 0.5 0.0 3.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.8 0.0 2.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.1 2.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 1.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.8 6.8 9.4 11.4 13.4 13.7 12.6 10.5 7.2 4.6 2.2 0.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
16-2 96.5% 2.1    1.9 0.2 0.0
15-3 85.1% 3.9    2.9 1.0 0.1
14-4 61.2% 4.4    2.1 1.8 0.5 0.0
13-5 24.7% 2.6    0.6 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.4% 14.4 8.2 4.3 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 95.5% 56.1% 39.4% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.7%
17-1 0.7% 68.6% 28.2% 40.5% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 56.3%
16-2 2.2% 37.0% 24.9% 12.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 1.4 16.1%
15-3 4.6% 30.3% 24.7% 5.7% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 3.2 7.5%
14-4 7.2% 19.9% 18.4% 1.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.1 5.8 1.8%
13-5 10.5% 14.4% 14.2% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 9.0 0.2%
12-6 12.6% 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 12.3 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.0 10.9 0.0%
11-7 13.7% 10.2% 10.2% 12.7 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 12.3
10-8 13.4% 7.5% 7.5% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 12.4
9-9 11.4% 6.5% 6.5% 13.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 10.7
8-10 9.4% 4.1% 4.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 9.0
7-11 6.8% 4.7% 4.7% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 6.5
6-12 3.8% 3.5% 3.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.7
5-13 2.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-14 1.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.4% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 11.4% 10.4% 1.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 2.6 3.7 2.4 1.0 0.5 0.3 88.6 1.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.4 3.0 33.3 9.1 33.3 21.2