Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.3#82
Expected Predictive Rating+3.7#125
Pace68.0#213
Improvement+2.2#31

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#146
First Shot+2.3#116
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#250
Layup/Dunks+0.2#163
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#278
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#160
Freethrows+3.1#36
Improvement+2.3#15

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#44
First Shot+3.7#79
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#82
Layups/Dunks-0.5#203
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#1
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#111
Freethrows-3.2#326
Improvement-0.2#196
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.4% 15.8% 10.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.6% 2.8% 0.7%
Average Seed 11.6 11.6 12.4
.500 or above 91.0% 92.2% 76.7%
.500 or above in Conference 81.4% 82.1% 71.9%
Conference Champion 18.5% 19.0% 12.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.3% 3.3%
First Four1.3% 1.4% 0.5%
First Round14.8% 15.2% 10.0%
Second Round4.1% 4.3% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.3% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Norfolk St. (Home) - 92.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 23 - 43 - 6
Quad 39 - 412 - 10
Quad 47 - 120 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 179   McNeese St. L 65-76 83%     0 - 1 -14.9 -7.9 -7.8
  Nov 10, 2023 161   Samford W 75-65 81%     1 - 1 +7.1 -3.1 +9.9
  Nov 15, 2023 160   Radford W 73-50 81%     2 - 1 +20.2 +3.6 +17.9
  Nov 18, 2023 132   Seattle W 60-56 75%     3 - 1 +3.4 -5.8 +9.5
  Nov 23, 2023 33   Iowa St. L 64-68 28%     3 - 2 +8.3 +6.9 +1.0
  Nov 24, 2023 79   Boise St. L 61-65 49%     3 - 3 +2.6 -1.3 +3.6
  Nov 26, 2023 90   Penn St. W 86-74 53%     4 - 3 +17.5 +11.8 +5.2
  Dec 01, 2023 274   Norfolk St. W 75-60 92%    
  Dec 06, 2023 34   Memphis L 71-74 40%    
  Dec 10, 2023 291   Alcorn St. W 80-64 94%    
  Dec 16, 2023 145   Temple W 73-65 78%    
  Dec 22, 2023 346   Maryland Eastern Shore W 78-56 98%    
  Dec 30, 2023 177   Gardner-Webb W 69-59 82%    
  Jan 03, 2024 109   St. Bonaventure W 69-64 69%    
  Jan 06, 2024 147   George Washington W 79-71 78%    
  Jan 09, 2024 111   @ George Mason L 66-67 48%    
  Jan 13, 2024 204   @ La Salle W 74-69 69%    
  Jan 19, 2024 148   Saint Louis W 76-68 77%    
  Jan 23, 2024 130   Loyola Chicago W 71-64 73%    
  Jan 27, 2024 141   @ Davidson W 67-65 56%    
  Jan 30, 2024 109   @ St. Bonaventure L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 03, 2024 85   Richmond W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 06, 2024 172   @ Fordham W 69-65 62%    
  Feb 09, 2024 70   Dayton W 66-64 55%    
  Feb 16, 2024 148   @ Saint Louis W 73-71 59%    
  Feb 20, 2024 140   @ Massachusetts W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 25, 2024 126   Saint Joseph's W 71-65 71%    
  Feb 28, 2024 176   Rhode Island W 74-64 81%    
  Mar 02, 2024 85   @ Richmond L 65-68 41%    
  Mar 05, 2024 84   Duquesne W 74-71 61%    
  Mar 08, 2024 70   @ Dayton L 63-67 35%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.5 5.1 2.9 1.2 0.2 18.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.6 5.5 3.4 1.0 0.1 14.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.9 5.7 2.6 0.5 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 5.1 2.9 0.4 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.5 3.9 3.7 0.5 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 4.6 0.9 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.8 2.0 0.1 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 3.0 0.3 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 2.8 0.9 0.0 4.5 9th
10th 0.3 1.6 1.7 0.1 3.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 2.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 1.7 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 1.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.2 4.9 7.7 10.3 12.6 13.6 13.5 11.5 9.4 6.1 3.0 1.2 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
16-2 96.3% 2.9    2.7 0.2
15-3 84.0% 5.1    3.9 1.1 0.1
14-4 58.4% 5.5    2.8 2.1 0.6 0.0
13-5 25.4% 2.9    0.7 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.7% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.5% 18.5 11.5 4.9 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 93.4% 36.8% 56.6% 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.6%
17-1 1.2% 79.3% 34.4% 45.0% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 68.5%
16-2 3.0% 54.9% 31.7% 23.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.2 1.3 34.1%
15-3 6.1% 36.4% 27.2% 9.3% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.1 3.9 12.7%
14-4 9.4% 23.9% 21.1% 2.8% 11.5 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.1 7.2 3.5%
13-5 11.5% 18.2% 17.4% 0.9% 12.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.4 0.0 9.4 1.1%
12-6 13.5% 14.4% 14.4% 0.1% 12.3 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.1 11.5 0.1%
11-7 13.6% 11.1% 11.1% 12.6 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 12.1
10-8 12.6% 8.7% 8.7% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 11.5
9-9 10.3% 6.8% 6.8% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.6
8-10 7.7% 5.5% 5.5% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.3
7-11 4.9% 4.5% 4.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.7
6-12 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 3.1
5-13 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.4% 13.1% 2.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 3.6 5.3 2.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 84.6 2.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 95.9% 4.1 8.2 2.0 22.4 28.6 10.2 24.5