North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#215
Expected Predictive Rating-0.3#173
Pace67.8#221
Improvement-0.4#225

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#172
First Shot+1.9#130
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#275
Layup/Dunks-4.9#328
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#78
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#118
Freethrows+2.8#42
Improvement+0.3#151

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#259
First Shot-4.3#302
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#79
Layups/Dunks-2.2#268
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#329
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#159
Freethrows+0.0#195
Improvement-0.7#260
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.1% 16.3% 11.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 51.7% 66.7% 42.3%
.500 or above in Conference 72.2% 77.9% 68.7%
Conference Champion 16.4% 20.5% 13.9%
Last Place in Conference 5.2% 3.6% 6.2%
First Four2.7% 1.9% 3.1%
First Round11.8% 15.5% 9.5%
Second Round0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Jose St. (Home) - 38.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 53 - 9
Quad 410 - 514 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 283   @ Western Michigan W 80-76 OT 53%     1 - 0 +0.6 +0.2 +0.2
  Nov 11, 2023 15   @ Creighton L 60-89 4%     1 - 1 -10.5 -1.0 -11.1
  Nov 14, 2023 199   UC Davis L 53-68 47%     1 - 2 -16.8 -10.4 -9.1
  Nov 16, 2023 195   @ Montana W 78-69 35%     2 - 2 +10.3 +9.7 +1.3
  Nov 25, 2023 78   @ Grand Canyon L 71-86 13%     2 - 3 -5.3 +3.2 -8.8
  Nov 27, 2023 116   @ San Jose St. L 65-78 20%     2 - 4 -6.5 -0.3 -6.8
  Dec 04, 2023 116   San Jose St. L 65-68 38%    
  Dec 07, 2023 187   Portland W 77-75 57%    
  Dec 17, 2023 231   @ Illinois St. L 66-68 43%    
  Dec 19, 2023 119   @ Southern Illinois L 63-72 21%    
  Dec 29, 2023 293   South Dakota W 79-71 76%    
  Jan 03, 2024 195   Montana W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 06, 2024 201   @ Eastern Washington L 76-80 38%    
  Jan 11, 2024 301   @ UMKC W 69-67 57%    
  Jan 13, 2024 275   @ Nebraska Omaha W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 18, 2024 254   Denver W 82-77 69%    
  Jan 20, 2024 174   Oral Roberts W 77-76 53%    
  Jan 25, 2024 278   @ St. Thomas W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 01, 2024 143   @ South Dakota St. L 70-77 27%    
  Feb 03, 2024 256   @ North Dakota L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 08, 2024 301   UMKC W 72-64 76%    
  Feb 10, 2024 275   Nebraska Omaha W 78-71 72%    
  Feb 15, 2024 174   @ Oral Roberts L 74-79 33%    
  Feb 17, 2024 254   @ Denver L 79-80 48%    
  Feb 22, 2024 278   St. Thomas W 72-65 72%    
  Feb 24, 2024 256   North Dakota W 75-69 68%    
  Feb 29, 2024 293   @ South Dakota W 76-74 56%    
  Mar 02, 2024 143   South Dakota St. L 73-74 47%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.4 4.6 2.8 1.0 0.2 16.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 5.2 6.7 4.1 1.1 0.1 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 6.1 6.3 2.7 0.3 0.0 16.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 5.6 6.1 1.6 0.1 14.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.5 4.9 1.2 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.1 1.0 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.2 0.9 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.0 0.6 0.0 4.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.8 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.8 4.9 7.5 10.7 12.9 14.7 13.7 12.2 8.9 5.7 2.9 1.0 0.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
14-2 96.5% 2.8    2.4 0.3
13-3 80.2% 4.6    3.2 1.3 0.0
12-4 50.1% 4.4    2.3 1.7 0.4 0.0
11-5 22.6% 2.8    0.8 1.3 0.6 0.1
10-6 4.1% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 16.4% 16.4 10.0 4.9 1.2 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 64.4% 64.4% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 1.0% 52.8% 52.8% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5
14-2 2.9% 42.0% 42.0% 13.8 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.7
13-3 5.7% 33.8% 33.8% 14.1 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 3.8
12-4 8.9% 26.4% 26.4% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.2 6.5
11-5 12.2% 18.5% 18.5% 15.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 0.5 10.0
10-6 13.7% 14.4% 14.4% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 11.7
9-7 14.7% 8.2% 8.2% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.9 13.5
8-8 12.9% 5.4% 5.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 12.3
7-9 10.7% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.4 10.3
6-10 7.5% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 7.3
5-11 4.9% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 4.8
4-12 2.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.8
3-13 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-14 0.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.1% 13.1% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.1 4.4 4.1 86.9 0.0%