Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#240
Expected Predictive Rating-9.3#303
Pace69.2#187
Improvement-0.4#212

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#228
First Shot-3.2#268
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#104
Layup/Dunks-0.9#206
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#328
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#78
Freethrows-2.5#308
Improvement-3.7#361

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#235
First Shot-1.5#222
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#231
Layups/Dunks-2.9#287
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#285
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#13
Freethrows-4.1#342
Improvement+3.3#5
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 4.0% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.7 15.5
.500 or above 12.1% 38.3% 11.6%
.500 or above in Conference 42.1% 62.8% 41.7%
Conference Champion 1.5% 4.5% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 7.7% 4.5% 7.8%
First Four1.0% 2.5% 1.0%
First Round1.3% 2.4% 1.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 1.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 83 - 13
Quad 48 - 611 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 22   @ Wisconsin L 76-105 4%     0 - 1 -13.0 +0.5 -9.4
  Nov 11, 2023 230   @ Bowling Green L 75-81 36%     0 - 2 -6.2 +3.3 -9.6
  Nov 14, 2023 296   Alcorn St. W 100-86 73%     1 - 2 +3.8 +20.1 -16.4
  Nov 17, 2023 35   @ Iowa L 74-88 5%     1 - 3 +0.6 -2.3 +4.2
  Nov 24, 2023 215   San Diego L 57-71 44%     1 - 4 -16.3 -19.5 +4.0
  Nov 25, 2023 318   UT Rio Grande Valley W 75-58 68%     2 - 4 +8.3 +1.9 +7.3
  Nov 28, 2023 262   Jackson St. L 71-75 67%     2 - 5 -12.4 -4.3 -8.2
  Dec 01, 2023 238   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 66-77 38%     2 - 6 -11.7 -13.1 +1.9
  Dec 04, 2023 15   @ Alabama L 71-93 2%    
  Dec 09, 2023 132   UAB L 74-77 38%    
  Dec 13, 2023 157   @ Louisville L 69-76 25%    
  Dec 20, 2023 148   @ Belmont L 74-82 24%    
  Dec 30, 2023 204   @ Georgia St. L 69-74 32%    
  Jan 04, 2024 313   Georgia Southern W 78-71 76%    
  Jan 06, 2024 206   Old Dominion W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 11, 2024 213   Texas St. W 67-66 55%    
  Jan 13, 2024 174   Louisiana L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 17, 2024 185   @ Southern Miss L 69-75 30%    
  Jan 20, 2024 213   @ Texas St. L 64-69 34%    
  Jan 25, 2024 174   @ Louisiana L 70-76 29%    
  Jan 27, 2024 286   @ Louisiana Monroe L 69-70 50%    
  Jan 31, 2024 185   Southern Miss W 73-72 51%    
  Feb 03, 2024 286   Louisiana Monroe W 72-66 69%    
  Feb 07, 2024 68   James Madison L 75-84 22%    
  Feb 15, 2024 189   @ Troy L 70-76 31%    
  Feb 17, 2024 231   @ South Alabama L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 22, 2024 189   Troy W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 24, 2024 231   South Alabama W 71-69 59%    
  Feb 28, 2024 300   @ Coastal Carolina W 74-73 52%    
  Mar 01, 2024 114   @ Appalachian St. L 64-75 18%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.0 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.1 1.3 0.3 5.5 3rd
4th 0.2 1.5 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.2 2.3 0.3 0.0 8.0 5th
6th 0.5 4.4 3.4 0.5 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.2 2.5 4.6 1.2 0.1 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.2 2.5 0.1 9.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 5.2 4.2 0.5 0.0 10.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.5 4.6 1.0 0.0 9.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.9 1.9 0.1 9.4 11th
12th 0.3 2.0 3.9 2.5 0.3 8.9 12th
13th 0.3 1.4 2.7 1.7 0.3 6.4 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.6 14th
Total 0.1 0.2 1.2 3.2 5.7 8.5 11.9 13.8 13.4 13.3 10.7 7.8 4.5 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 86.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 57.9% 0.5    0.3 0.1 0.1
14-4 29.8% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.1% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.2% 14.5% 14.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.8% 10.8% 10.8% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
14-4 1.7% 10.0% 10.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.6
13-5 3.0% 5.9% 5.9% 14.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.9
12-6 4.5% 2.9% 2.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.4
11-7 7.8% 4.0% 4.0% 15.8 0.1 0.2 7.5
10-8 10.7% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 10.4
9-9 13.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 13.1
8-10 13.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.3
7-11 13.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 13.7
6-12 11.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 11.8
5-13 8.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.5
4-14 5.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.7
3-15 3.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.1
2-16 1.2% 1.2
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.2 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%