Towson
Colonial Athletic
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#219
Expected Predictive Rating-3.7#242
Pace56.4#361
Improvement-2.0#302

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#237
First Shot-6.4#333
After Offensive Rebound+4.3#14
Layup/Dunks+0.6#155
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#195
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#324
Freethrows-0.5#211
Improvement-2.8#348

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#177
First Shot+0.3#167
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#227
Layups/Dunks+0.0#178
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#208
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#133
Freethrows-0.8#241
Improvement+0.9#110
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 3.9% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 47.7% 61.8% 36.1%
.500 or above in Conference 58.5% 64.8% 53.3%
Conference Champion 2.7% 3.6% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.0% 1.8%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
First Round2.6% 3.6% 1.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Massachusetts (Home) - 44.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 33 - 63 - 12
Quad 411 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 40   @ Colorado L 57-75 7%     0 - 1 -3.7 -4.2 -0.9
  Nov 09, 2023 356   @ Coppin St. W 70-49 80%     1 - 1 +9.7 +2.9 +9.6
  Nov 12, 2023 299   Robert Morris W 66-62 78%     2 - 1 -6.5 +2.9 -8.5
  Nov 16, 2023 3   Houston L 49-65 3%     2 - 2 +3.5 -4.8 +6.0
  Nov 17, 2023 70   Wake Forest L 61-71 17%     2 - 3 -2.2 +1.4 -5.5
  Nov 19, 2023 82   North Texas L 39-65 20%     2 - 4 -19.7 -21.1 -2.8
  Nov 26, 2023 337   Morgan St. W 67-58 87%     3 - 4 -5.6 -3.5 -0.9
  Dec 01, 2023 134   South Dakota St. L 48-61 33%     3 - 5 -10.9 -15.2 +1.6
  Dec 06, 2023 133   Massachusetts L 65-66 45%    
  Dec 09, 2023 310   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 73-70 60%    
  Dec 16, 2023 197   Bryant L 65-66 46%    
  Dec 22, 2023 258   Nicholls St. W 68-62 71%    
  Jan 04, 2024 239   @ Monmouth L 63-65 44%    
  Jan 06, 2024 116   UNC Wilmington L 60-63 41%    
  Jan 11, 2024 261   Stony Brook W 64-58 70%    
  Jan 13, 2024 210   @ Northeastern L 63-66 38%    
  Jan 18, 2024 107   @ College of Charleston L 62-71 19%    
  Jan 20, 2024 317   Campbell W 63-54 80%    
  Jan 25, 2024 124   Drexel L 56-58 42%    
  Jan 27, 2024 156   @ Delaware L 60-66 30%    
  Feb 01, 2024 210   Northeastern W 66-63 60%    
  Feb 03, 2024 100   @ Hofstra L 59-69 18%    
  Feb 08, 2024 156   Delaware W 64-63 51%    
  Feb 12, 2024 297   Elon W 70-62 76%    
  Feb 15, 2024 315   @ William & Mary W 67-64 61%    
  Feb 17, 2024 327   @ Hampton W 70-65 66%    
  Feb 22, 2024 239   Monmouth W 66-62 65%    
  Feb 24, 2024 107   College of Charleston L 65-68 38%    
  Feb 29, 2024 361   @ N.C. A&T W 74-63 84%    
  Mar 02, 2024 116   @ UNC Wilmington L 57-66 23%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.9 2.6 0.3 0.0 6.6 3rd
4th 0.7 3.4 3.4 0.5 0.0 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.9 5.1 1.1 0.1 10.8 5th
6th 0.3 3.1 5.5 2.1 0.1 11.2 6th
7th 0.2 2.6 6.5 3.1 0.2 12.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 5.6 3.8 0.4 11.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 4.0 3.6 0.7 0.0 9.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.3 3.5 1.1 0.1 8.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.1 0.8 0.1 6.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.9 0.9 0.1 4.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.7 5.1 8.7 10.3 13.3 14.7 13.6 11.6 8.2 5.6 2.9 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 88.7% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 68.4% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 33.4% 1.0    0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 6.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.2% 33.3% 33.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.3% 10.6% 10.6% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.3% 11.4% 11.4% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.2
14-4 2.9% 10.2% 10.2% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.6
13-5 5.6% 8.1% 8.1% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 5.2
12-6 8.2% 5.4% 5.4% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 7.8
11-7 11.6% 3.5% 3.5% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 11.2
10-8 13.6% 3.0% 3.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 13.2
9-9 14.7% 2.4% 2.4% 15.8 0.1 0.3 14.3
8-10 13.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 13.1
7-11 10.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.2
6-12 8.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.6
5-13 5.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.1
4-14 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.7
3-15 1.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.2 97.1 0.0%