North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#245
Expected Predictive Rating-3.5#235
Pace67.0#227
Improvement+5.9#13

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#205
First Shot-3.2#271
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#47
Layup/Dunks-2.7#289
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#238
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#151
Freethrows-0.2#193
Improvement+4.0#18

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#267
First Shot-3.2#288
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#189
Layups/Dunks-1.5#245
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#108
Freethrows-1.0#250
Improvement+1.9#83
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.3% 7.8% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.8% 1.2% 3.6%
First Round6.3% 7.1% 4.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Home) - 75.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 34 - 34 - 5
Quad 411 - 815 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 45   @ Iowa L 68-110 6%     0 - 1 -28.6 -12.2 -10.6
  Nov 12, 2023 314   Elon W 85-68 75%     1 - 1 +5.8 +3.8 +1.8
  Nov 20, 2023 342   @ Pacific W 73-71 72%     2 - 1 -8.0 -5.0 -3.0
  Nov 25, 2023 349   New Orleans W 71-69 OT 82%     3 - 1 -11.8 -21.1 +9.0
  Nov 26, 2023 326   Eastern Michigan W 72-70 72%     4 - 1 -8.2 +1.6 -9.6
  Dec 01, 2023 223   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 54-64 36%     4 - 2 -10.5 -9.0 -2.9
  Dec 03, 2023 212   @ UC Riverside L 62-68 35%     4 - 3 -6.1 -5.9 -0.7
  Dec 09, 2023 297   Portland L 72-83 72%     4 - 4 -21.0 -6.5 -14.6
  Dec 16, 2023 277   @ Utah Tech W 79-62 46%     5 - 4 +13.9 +7.3 +6.5
  Dec 20, 2023 33   @ Nebraska L 75-83 5%     5 - 5 +6.5 +12.2 -6.0
  Dec 29, 2023 166   St. Thomas L 45-70 45%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -27.9 -24.7 -6.3
  Dec 31, 2023 156   @ South Dakota St. L 61-80 24%     5 - 7 0 - 2 -15.9 -10.0 -6.2
  Jan 03, 2024 202   Northern Colorado L 87-97 54%     5 - 8 -15.1 +8.9 -24.1
  Jan 06, 2024 299   @ Northern Arizona L 73-74 53%     5 - 9 -5.8 +0.3 -6.1
  Jan 11, 2024 264   @ Nebraska Omaha L 61-79 44%     5 - 10 0 - 3 -20.5 -11.5 -9.9
  Jan 13, 2024 234   @ UMKC W 82-69 38%     6 - 10 1 - 3 +12.1 +13.7 -1.0
  Jan 18, 2024 266   Oral Roberts W 87-77 65%     7 - 10 2 - 3 +2.0 +13.4 -10.9
  Jan 20, 2024 278   Denver W 92-78 67%     8 - 10 3 - 3 +5.5 +11.9 -6.2
  Jan 27, 2024 166   @ St. Thomas W 74-64 26%     9 - 10 4 - 3 +12.5 +5.1 +7.9
  Feb 01, 2024 310   @ South Dakota W 95-81 56%     10 - 10 5 - 3 +8.4 +17.8 -9.2
  Feb 03, 2024 256   North Dakota St. W 60-58 63%     11 - 10 6 - 3 -5.4 -9.5 +4.3
  Feb 08, 2024 264   Nebraska Omaha W 99-78 64%     12 - 10 7 - 3 +13.1 +11.6 -0.5
  Feb 10, 2024 234   UMKC L 47-65 59%     12 - 11 7 - 4 -24.3 -20.8 -6.2
  Feb 15, 2024 278   @ Denver W 92-78 46%     13 - 11 8 - 4 +10.9 +14.1 -3.0
  Feb 17, 2024 266   @ Oral Roberts W 78-65 44%     14 - 11 9 - 4 +10.5 +0.2 +9.9
  Feb 24, 2024 256   @ North Dakota St. L 68-73 42%     14 - 12 9 - 5 -7.0 -1.4 -6.0
  Feb 29, 2024 156   South Dakota St. L 62-72 43%     14 - 13 9 - 6 -12.3 -4.1 -9.7
  Mar 02, 2024 310   South Dakota W 80-73 75%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 10 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 13.7 75.2 89.0 2nd
3rd 11.0 11.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 24.8 75.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 75.2% 7.8% 7.8% 15.5 0.0 2.6 3.2 69.4
9-7 24.8% 5.9% 5.9% 15.9 0.1 1.4 23.3
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 2.7 4.6 92.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 75.2% 7.8% 15.5 0.1 3.4 4.3
Lose Out 24.8% 5.9% 15.9 0.4 5.5