UMKC
Summit League
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.6#234
Expected Predictive Rating-4.7#256
Pace66.5#246
Improvement+6.7#5

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#266
First Shot-5.7#325
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#45
Layup/Dunks-5.1#340
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#206
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#82
Freethrows-2.6#336
Improvement+0.0#187

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#183
First Shot-2.0#249
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#53
Layups/Dunks-1.6#251
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#205
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#76
Freethrows-2.9#332
Improvement+6.8#2
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 10.2% 7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.8% 6.5% 6.9%
First Round5.7% 7.2% 4.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oral Roberts (Away) - 44.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 62 - 9
Quad 410 - 612 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2023 15   @ Baylor L 61-99 3%     0 - 1 -20.0 -2.7 -19.5
  Nov 17, 2023 40   @ Colorado St. L 61-84 6%     0 - 2 -9.2 -5.3 -4.0
  Nov 24, 2023 146   UNC Greensboro L 64-76 32%     0 - 3 -10.7 -3.3 -8.5
  Nov 25, 2023 226   Brown L 83-93 OT 48%     0 - 4 -13.2 +1.6 -13.9
  Nov 26, 2023 265   Middle Tennessee L 59-63 56%     0 - 5 -9.2 -5.9 -3.9
  Nov 30, 2023 352   Southeast Missouri St. W 74-44 89%     1 - 5 +12.6 -3.9 +16.9
  Dec 05, 2023 17   @ Kansas L 69-88 3%     1 - 6 -1.2 +4.5 -5.2
  Dec 09, 2023 356   @ Lindenwood W 72-67 81%     2 - 6 -7.9 -1.6 -6.0
  Dec 16, 2023 246   @ Bowling Green L 69-79 41%     2 - 7 -11.4 -1.9 -9.8
  Dec 20, 2023 198   @ East Tennessee St. L 57-70 35%     2 - 8 -12.6 -13.3 +0.5
  Dec 29, 2023 266   Oral Roberts W 77-60 66%     3 - 8 1 - 0 +9.0 -0.7 +9.9
  Dec 31, 2023 166   @ St. Thomas L 56-77 28%     3 - 9 1 - 1 -18.5 -8.9 -12.5
  Jan 03, 2024 320   @ Sacramento St. L 64-67 62%     3 - 10 -9.8 -7.4 -2.6
  Jan 06, 2024 250   Portland St. W 83-67 64%     4 - 10 +8.8 +7.7 +0.9
  Jan 11, 2024 256   North Dakota St. L 91-92 2OT 64%     4 - 11 1 - 2 -8.4 -0.7 -7.5
  Jan 13, 2024 245   North Dakota L 69-82 62%     4 - 12 1 - 3 -19.8 -5.5 -14.9
  Jan 20, 2024 264   @ Nebraska Omaha W 74-72 45%     5 - 12 2 - 3 -0.5 +3.1 -3.5
  Jan 25, 2024 156   @ South Dakota St. L 66-75 26%     5 - 13 2 - 4 -5.9 -5.5 -0.5
  Jan 27, 2024 310   South Dakota W 81-57 76%     6 - 13 3 - 4 +13.0 +2.3 +11.3
  Feb 01, 2024 278   Denver W 85-71 68%     7 - 13 4 - 4 +5.5 +0.5 +4.6
  Feb 03, 2024 166   St. Thomas L 56-71 47%     7 - 14 4 - 5 -17.9 -12.0 -7.9
  Feb 08, 2024 256   @ North Dakota St. L 78-82 OT 44%     7 - 15 4 - 6 -6.0 +2.8 -8.8
  Feb 10, 2024 245   @ North Dakota W 65-47 41%     8 - 15 5 - 6 +16.6 -0.3 +19.5
  Feb 15, 2024 156   South Dakota St. W 72-67 45%     9 - 15 6 - 6 +2.7 -0.3 +3.2
  Feb 22, 2024 310   @ South Dakota W 82-78 57%     10 - 15 7 - 6 -1.6 -4.9 +2.9
  Feb 24, 2024 264   Nebraska Omaha W 63-58 66%     11 - 15 8 - 6 -2.9 -5.3 +3.2
  Feb 29, 2024 278   @ Denver W 84-69 48%     12 - 15 9 - 6 +11.9 +5.3 +6.7
  Mar 03, 2024 266   @ Oral Roberts L 71-72 45%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 9 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 13.7 44.6 58.3 2nd
3rd 41.7 41.7 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 55.4 44.6 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 44.6% 10.2% 10.2% 15.9 0.2 4.3 40.0
9-7 55.4% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 0.0 4.3 51.1
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.3 8.6 91.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 44.6% 10.2% 15.9 0.5 9.7
Lose Out 55.4% 7.8% 16.0 0.1 7.7