Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.4#298
Expected Predictive Rating-8.1#304
Pace66.8#239
Improvement+5.3#17

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#212
First Shot-1.4#214
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#164
Layup/Dunks+0.4#150
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#48
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#320
Freethrows+0.4#149
Improvement+0.7#137

Defense
Total Defense-6.3#350
First Shot-6.5#354
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#162
Layups/Dunks+2.4#90
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-10.9#362
Freethrows-1.0#257
Improvement+4.5#23
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.4% 12.9% 9.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four11.3% 12.8% 9.3%
First Round4.9% 5.7% 3.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Prairie View (Away) - 56.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 40 - 9
Quad 30 - 30 - 12
Quad 412 - 712 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 103   @ Arkansas L 59-93 9%     0 - 1 -26.7 -12.4 -13.1
  Nov 14, 2023 142   @ Arkansas St. L 86-100 14%     0 - 2 -9.8 +11.6 -21.4
  Nov 16, 2023 117   @ UAB L 77-80 11%     0 - 3 +3.2 -2.3 +5.8
  Nov 19, 2023 18   @ Michigan St. L 49-81 2%     0 - 4 -14.7 -11.3 -5.2
  Nov 21, 2023 24   @ TCU L 74-93 3%     0 - 5 -3.2 -1.3 +0.6
  Nov 22, 2023 135   @ Texas Arlington L 69-82 13%     0 - 6 -8.3 +4.0 -13.1
  Nov 24, 2023 23   @ Clemson L 69-90 3%     0 - 7 -5.2 +2.0 -6.9
  Dec 10, 2023 86   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 58-86 7%     0 - 8 -18.4 -4.9 -15.1
  Dec 12, 2023 42   @ Maryland L 65-105 4%     0 - 9 -26.4 +0.6 -25.5
  Dec 17, 2023 121   @ Northern Iowa L 82-100 11%     0 - 10 -12.2 +12.4 -24.7
  Dec 19, 2023 60   @ Drake L 55-92 5%     0 - 11 -25.4 -19.5 -2.1
  Dec 21, 2023 231   @ George Washington L 75-79 26%     0 - 12 -4.7 -0.6 -4.1
  Jan 06, 2024 301   @ Jackson St. L 80-88 40%     0 - 13 0 - 1 -12.9 +6.1 -19.0
  Jan 11, 2024 340   @ Alabama A&M W 74-71 59%     1 - 13 1 - 1 -6.9 +4.9 -11.6
  Jan 13, 2024 324   @ Alabama St. L 53-55 48%     1 - 14 1 - 2 -9.0 -12.9 +3.7
  Jan 20, 2024 281   Texas Southern L 61-72 55%     1 - 15 1 - 3 -19.7 -10.1 -10.1
  Jan 22, 2024 338   Prairie View W 90-78 77%     2 - 15 2 - 3 -3.0 +15.1 -17.7
  Jan 27, 2024 347   @ Florida A&M W 76-67 62%     3 - 15 3 - 3 -1.6 +6.5 -7.2
  Jan 29, 2024 322   @ Bethune-Cookman W 70-67 48%     4 - 15 4 - 3 -3.9 -1.5 -2.2
  Feb 03, 2024 263   Southern L 70-71 52%     4 - 16 4 - 4 -8.9 +1.3 -10.3
  Feb 05, 2024 287   Grambling St. L 67-78 58%     4 - 17 4 - 5 -20.5 +1.9 -24.0
  Feb 10, 2024 339   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 68-56 59%     5 - 17 5 - 5 +2.3 -10.6 +13.0
  Feb 12, 2024 362   @ Mississippi Valley W 72-55 86%     6 - 17 6 - 5 -2.3 +2.2 -2.4
  Feb 17, 2024 322   Bethune-Cookman W 69-54 68%     7 - 17 7 - 5 +2.7 -1.1 +5.7
  Feb 19, 2024 347   Florida A&M W 79-68 79%     8 - 17 8 - 5 -5.0 +1.7 -6.4
  Feb 24, 2024 301   Jackson St. W 87-73 OT 61%     9 - 17 9 - 5 +3.7 +6.4 -3.3
  Mar 02, 2024 338   @ Prairie View W 76-74 57%    
  Mar 04, 2024 281   @ Texas Southern L 69-73 34%    
  Mar 07, 2024 362   Mississippi Valley W 76-59 95%    
  Mar 09, 2024 339   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 83-75 77%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 11 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 0.7 1st
2nd 0.6 5.8 6.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 8.2 9.1 17.3 3rd
4th 0.0 10.9 30.6 41.5 4th
5th 1.4 17.4 4.1 22.9 5th
6th 4.2 5.1 0.1 9.4 6th
7th 1.5 1.5 7th
8th 0.2 0.2 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 7.3 33.5 43.6 15.6 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 4.5% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 15.6% 17.6% 17.6% 16.0 2.7 12.9
11-7 43.6% 12.1% 12.1% 16.0 5.3 38.3
10-8 33.5% 8.6% 8.6% 16.0 2.9 30.7
9-9 7.3% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.5 6.8
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 16.0 11.4 88.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 15.0% 17.6% 16.0 17.6
Lose Out 0.4% 1.5% 16.0 1.5