Grambling St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#287
Expected Predictive Rating-5.4#264
Pace63.7#308
Improvement+4.8#23

Offense
Total Offense-5.6#313
First Shot-4.3#296
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#265
Layup/Dunks-1.2#223
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#19
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#338
Freethrows-1.4#276
Improvement+2.4#52

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#206
First Shot-2.6#268
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#64
Layups/Dunks-0.4#197
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#99
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#325
Freethrows+0.7#143
Improvement+2.4#59
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.0% 16.9% 12.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 57.3% 65.9% 19.3%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 82.7% 88.1% 58.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.0% 12.2% 11.1%
First Round8.9% 9.7% 5.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida A&M (Home) - 81.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 6
Quad 20 - 10 - 7
Quad 31 - 21 - 9
Quad 413 - 614 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 31   @ Colorado L 63-95 3%     0 - 1 -16.9 -5.4 -10.8
  Nov 17, 2023 312   Delaware St. L 63-71 56%     0 - 2 -16.4 -14.0 -1.8
  Nov 19, 2023 13   @ Iowa St. L 37-92 2%     0 - 3 -36.2 -22.4 -15.7
  Nov 22, 2023 151   Sam Houston St. L 68-86 23%     0 - 4 -17.0 +2.2 -20.5
  Nov 24, 2023 127   @ Troy L 67-80 13%     0 - 5 -7.5 -3.9 -3.3
  Dec 02, 2023 41   @ Dayton L 46-76 4%     0 - 6 -16.3 -15.6 -4.6
  Dec 10, 2023 37   @ Washington St. L 65-83 4%     0 - 7 -4.0 +3.3 -8.3
  Dec 14, 2023 60   @ Drake L 56-68 5%     0 - 8 -0.4 -9.8 +8.7
  Dec 20, 2023 289   @ SE Louisiana L 47-48 40%     0 - 9 -5.1 -13.6 +8.1
  Dec 22, 2023 25   @ Florida L 57-96 3%     0 - 10 -23.2 -9.7 -14.1
  Jan 06, 2024 338   Prairie View W 69-63 78%     1 - 10 1 - 0 -9.0 -4.7 -4.0
  Jan 08, 2024 281   Texas Southern L 52-54 58%     1 - 11 1 - 1 -10.7 -18.0 +7.1
  Jan 13, 2024 322   @ Bethune-Cookman W 79-69 51%     2 - 11 2 - 1 +3.1 +2.3 +0.7
  Jan 15, 2024 347   @ Florida A&M W 65-52 64%     3 - 11 3 - 1 +2.4 -1.1 +5.7
  Jan 20, 2024 263   Southern W 79-62 54%     4 - 11 4 - 1 +9.1 +4.4 +4.6
  Jan 27, 2024 362   Mississippi Valley W 54-46 94%     5 - 11 5 - 1 -16.7 -26.4 +9.9
  Jan 29, 2024 339   Arkansas Pine Bluff L 70-86 79%     5 - 12 5 - 2 -31.1 -9.1 -22.7
  Feb 03, 2024 301   Jackson St. W 70-62 53%     6 - 12 6 - 2 +0.4 +4.9 -3.3
  Feb 05, 2024 298   @ Alcorn St. W 78-67 42%     7 - 12 7 - 2 +6.3 +12.1 -4.1
  Feb 10, 2024 324   Alabama St. W 74-68 71%     8 - 12 8 - 2 -6.4 -1.1 -5.3
  Feb 12, 2024 340   Alabama A&M L 50-60 79%     8 - 13 8 - 3 -25.3 -26.8 +1.4
  Feb 17, 2024 281   @ Texas Southern W 66-63 37%     9 - 13 9 - 3 -0.3 -0.7 +0.6
  Feb 19, 2024 338   @ Prairie View W 83-74 61%     10 - 13 10 - 3 -0.6 +8.6 -9.1
  Feb 24, 2024 263   @ Southern W 63-57 34%     11 - 13 11 - 3 +3.6 +2.7 +1.9
  Mar 02, 2024 347   Florida A&M W 71-62 82%    
  Mar 04, 2024 322   Bethune-Cookman W 72-66 71%    
  Mar 07, 2024 340   @ Alabama A&M W 69-66 60%    
  Mar 09, 2024 324   @ Alabama St. W 64-63 50%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.6 22.8 38.2 19.1 82.7 1st
2nd 0.2 5.7 7.7 13.5 2nd
3rd 0.9 2.6 3.4 3rd
4th 0.4 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 1.4 10.8 30.5 38.2 19.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 19.1    19.1
14-4 100.0% 38.2    28.3 9.9
13-5 74.8% 22.8    6.5 11.6 4.7
12-6 24.1% 2.6    0.1 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.1
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8
9-9
Total 82.7% 82.7 54.0 22.0 5.9 0.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 19.1% 22.7% 22.7% 15.8 0.0 0.7 3.6 14.8
14-4 38.2% 17.3% 17.3% 16.0 0.1 6.4 31.6
13-5 30.5% 13.1% 13.1% 16.0 0.0 4.0 26.5
12-6 10.8% 9.3% 9.3% 16.0 1.0 9.8
11-7 1.4% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.1 1.3
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.9 15.1 84.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 19.1% 22.7% 15.8 0.0 3.8 18.9
Lose Out 1.4% 5.8% 16.0 5.8