Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#114
Expected Predictive Rating+3.5#125
Pace67.1#236
Improvement+3.0#25

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#167
First Shot+1.4#140
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#245
Layup/Dunks+4.0#56
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#300
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#156
Freethrows-0.9#226
Improvement+1.1#90

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#80
First Shot+1.2#137
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#43
Layups/Dunks+2.9#79
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#231
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#301
Freethrows+2.4#61
Improvement+1.9#38
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.3% 23.5% 16.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.8 12.2 13.0
.500 or above 95.2% 98.5% 94.2%
.500 or above in Conference 92.8% 95.9% 91.8%
Conference Champion 24.2% 31.4% 22.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round18.2% 23.3% 16.6%
Second Round3.3% 5.0% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.3% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Auburn (Home) - 23.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 46 - 7
Quad 412 - 219 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 160   @ Northern Illinois L 78-91 52%     0 - 1 -9.9 -4.3 -4.1
  Nov 14, 2023 147   @ Oregon St. L 71-81 OT 49%     0 - 2 -6.0 -0.5 -5.0
  Nov 21, 2023 116   UNC Wilmington W 86-56 52%     1 - 2 +33.1 +19.4 +15.2
  Nov 22, 2023 172   Murray St. W 67-57 65%     2 - 2 +9.7 -7.2 +17.1
  Nov 26, 2023 275   Austin Peay W 78-58 88%     3 - 2 +10.8 +6.7 +5.3
  Nov 29, 2023 244   East Tennessee St. W 72-61 84%     4 - 2 +3.9 +2.7 +2.1
  Dec 03, 2023 17   Auburn L 66-74 23%    
  Dec 13, 2023 255   @ Queens W 75-69 70%    
  Dec 16, 2023 177   Gardner-Webb W 69-65 66%    
  Dec 21, 2023 209   UNC Asheville W 73-67 71%    
  Dec 30, 2023 286   Louisiana Monroe W 74-60 89%    
  Jan 04, 2024 231   @ South Alabama W 69-65 64%    
  Jan 06, 2024 189   @ Troy W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 11, 2024 300   @ Coastal Carolina W 75-67 77%    
  Jan 13, 2024 68   @ James Madison L 73-80 26%    
  Jan 17, 2024 204   Georgia St. W 73-64 78%    
  Jan 20, 2024 300   Coastal Carolina W 78-64 89%    
  Jan 25, 2024 313   Georgia Southern W 79-64 91%    
  Jan 27, 2024 68   James Madison L 76-77 46%    
  Feb 01, 2024 204   @ Georgia St. W 70-67 58%    
  Feb 03, 2024 313   @ Georgia Southern W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 07, 2024 213   @ Texas St. W 65-62 60%    
  Feb 15, 2024 196   Marshall W 77-69 77%    
  Feb 17, 2024 174   Louisiana W 74-67 73%    
  Feb 22, 2024 206   @ Old Dominion W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 24, 2024 196   @ Marshall W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 28, 2024 206   Old Dominion W 72-63 78%    
  Mar 01, 2024 240   Arkansas St. W 75-64 82%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.3 6.9 6.3 3.0 0.7 24.2 1st
2nd 0.4 3.4 7.8 7.9 3.6 0.6 23.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.6 5.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 16.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.7 5.1 3.8 0.8 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.3 2.9 0.6 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.2 1.6 2.6 0.8 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.1 0.8 0.0 3.8 7th
8th 0.2 1.4 1.0 0.1 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.2 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 2.1 3.7 5.7 8.8 12.1 14.6 15.6 14.8 10.7 6.9 3.0 0.7 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 100.0% 3.0    2.9 0.1
16-2 91.1% 6.3    5.1 1.1 0.0
15-3 64.6% 6.9    4.4 2.2 0.3
14-4 35.7% 5.3    2.0 2.4 0.8 0.1
13-5 11.4% 1.8    0.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.2% 24.2 15.6 6.5 1.7 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 59.1% 47.6% 11.4% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 21.8%
17-1 3.0% 41.8% 39.3% 2.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.7 4.2%
16-2 6.9% 39.1% 38.5% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.6 0.0 4.2 0.9%
15-3 10.7% 31.2% 31.2% 12.4 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.4
14-4 14.8% 23.8% 23.8% 12.8 0.1 1.2 1.8 0.4 0.0 11.3
13-5 15.6% 17.9% 17.9% 13.2 0.0 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.1 12.8
12-6 14.6% 13.7% 13.7% 13.6 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.2 12.6
11-7 12.1% 9.5% 9.5% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 10.9
10-8 8.8% 6.7% 6.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 8.2
9-9 5.7% 4.2% 4.2% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 5.4
8-10 3.7% 6.3% 6.3% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.5
7-11 2.1% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 2.0
6-12 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.3% 18.1% 0.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.6 5.7 5.9 3.3 1.1 0.3 81.7 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 92.4% 6.2 15.2 19.7 33.3 7.6 16.7