UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.1#116
Expected Predictive Rating+7.8#78
Pace65.4#285
Improvement+0.8#125

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#145
First Shot+0.2#178
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#125
Layup/Dunks-6.4#346
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#197
Freethrows+1.5#97
Improvement-0.7#248

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#122
First Shot+1.2#133
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#128
Layups/Dunks-0.6#209
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#196
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#97
Freethrows-0.6#229
Improvement+1.5#66
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.7% 19.2% 12.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 13.1
.500 or above 93.6% 96.0% 84.9%
.500 or above in Conference 93.3% 94.4% 89.2%
Conference Champion 24.2% 26.2% 16.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Round17.5% 19.0% 12.2%
Second Round3.1% 3.5% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Away) - 78.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 01 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 1
Quad 21 - 22 - 2
Quad 35 - 47 - 7
Quad 411 - 218 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 209   @ UNC Asheville W 83-66 59%     1 - 0 +17.9 +7.1 +10.1
  Nov 20, 2023 172   Murray St. W 83-81 OT 63%     2 - 0 +1.7 +4.5 -2.9
  Nov 21, 2023 114   Appalachian St. L 56-86 48%     2 - 1 -26.3 -10.7 -17.1
  Nov 25, 2023 220   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 71-55 60%     3 - 1 +16.6 +4.8 +13.7
  Nov 30, 2023 184   @ East Carolina L 66-74 55%     3 - 2 -6.0 -2.9 -3.9
  Dec 02, 2023 18   @ Kentucky W 80-73 10%     4 - 2 +24.5 +6.5 +17.5
  Dec 16, 2023 313   @ Georgia Southern W 75-67 78%    
  Dec 21, 2023 196   @ Marshall W 74-72 56%    
  Dec 30, 2023 46   @ Arkansas L 67-77 17%    
  Jan 04, 2024 124   @ Drexel L 60-63 40%    
  Jan 06, 2024 219   @ Towson W 63-60 59%    
  Jan 11, 2024 239   Monmouth W 75-65 82%    
  Jan 13, 2024 156   Delaware W 72-66 70%    
  Jan 18, 2024 297   @ Elon W 76-69 74%    
  Jan 20, 2024 107   College of Charleston W 74-72 58%    
  Jan 25, 2024 210   @ Northeastern W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 27, 2024 261   @ Stony Brook W 68-63 68%    
  Feb 01, 2024 107   @ College of Charleston L 71-75 36%    
  Feb 03, 2024 317   Campbell W 71-56 90%    
  Feb 08, 2024 124   Drexel W 63-60 62%    
  Feb 10, 2024 327   @ Hampton W 79-69 82%    
  Feb 15, 2024 361   N.C. A&T W 86-63 98%    
  Feb 17, 2024 297   Elon W 79-66 88%    
  Feb 22, 2024 315   @ William & Mary W 76-67 77%    
  Feb 26, 2024 317   @ Campbell W 68-59 78%    
  Feb 29, 2024 100   Hofstra W 70-69 55%    
  Mar 02, 2024 219   Towson W 66-57 77%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 4.5 7.7 6.6 3.5 0.7 24.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 6.1 7.6 3.7 0.7 0.0 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 5.2 6.6 2.0 0.2 14.8 3rd
4th 0.7 3.7 5.6 1.9 0.1 12.1 4th
5th 0.3 2.7 5.0 1.8 0.1 9.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 3.7 1.8 0.1 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.4 1.7 0.1 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.3 0.2 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.5 5.8 9.0 11.5 13.9 15.7 14.3 11.5 7.3 3.5 0.7 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 99.7% 3.5    3.3 0.2
16-2 90.5% 6.6    5.3 1.3 0.0
15-3 66.6% 7.7    3.9 3.2 0.5 0.0
14-4 31.6% 4.5    1.2 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 6.8% 1.1    0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.2% 24.2 14.4 7.1 2.2 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 74.4% 45.8% 28.6% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 52.8%
17-1 3.5% 44.5% 37.9% 6.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.9 10.6%
16-2 7.3% 32.8% 32.4% 0.5% 11.9 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.0 4.9 0.7%
15-3 11.5% 24.9% 24.8% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.2 1.6 0.9 0.1 8.7 0.1%
14-4 14.3% 23.8% 23.8% 12.7 0.1 1.4 1.6 0.4 0.0 10.9
13-5 15.7% 16.6% 16.6% 12.9 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 13.1
12-6 13.9% 15.2% 15.2% 13.3 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 11.8
11-7 11.5% 8.3% 8.3% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 10.6
10-8 9.0% 7.5% 7.5% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 8.3
9-9 5.8% 6.2% 6.2% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.4
8-10 3.5% 4.8% 4.8% 15.6 0.1 0.1 3.3
7-11 1.8% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.1 1.8
6-12 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.7% 17.2% 0.5% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.9 5.9 5.7 2.4 1.0 0.3 82.3 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 94.1% 6.4 1.0 24.8 38.6 17.8 1.0 5.9 5.0