Elon
Colonial Athletic
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.5#314
Expected Predictive Rating-6.6#285
Pace68.2#190
Improvement-0.6#215

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#238
First Shot-2.0#238
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#197
Layup/Dunks-2.1#269
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#201
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#137
Freethrows-0.7#229
Improvement-2.6#314

Defense
Total Defense-6.2#349
First Shot-6.6#356
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#146
Layups/Dunks-7.3#357
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#90
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#194
Freethrows-0.3#216
Improvement+2.0#72
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Monmouth (Home) - 40.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 30 - 81 - 11
Quad 410 - 611 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 21   @ Wake Forest L 78-101 2%     0 - 1 -6.9 +6.0 -11.1
  Nov 09, 2023 198   East Tennessee St. W 79-76 37%     1 - 1 -2.0 +1.2 -3.3
  Nov 12, 2023 245   @ North Dakota L 68-85 25%     1 - 2 -18.4 -7.3 -10.9
  Nov 17, 2023 361   IUPUI W 86-72 81%     2 - 2 -3.6 +12.4 -14.8
  Nov 18, 2023 348   Holy Cross W 83-69 68%     3 - 2 +0.6 +8.4 -6.8
  Nov 19, 2023 168   @ Winthrop L 70-78 15%     3 - 3 -5.6 +1.4 -7.4
  Nov 27, 2023 279   Presbyterian W 82-79 51%     4 - 3 -5.7 -5.4 -0.6
  Dec 03, 2023 228   @ Radford L 72-82 23%     4 - 4 -10.6 +2.4 -13.8
  Dec 10, 2023 146   @ UNC Greensboro L 73-82 12%     4 - 5 -5.0 -2.9 -1.6
  Dec 22, 2023 53   @ South Carolina L 43-70 4%     4 - 6 -14.5 -19.2 +2.2
  Dec 29, 2023 304   Valparaiso W 82-78 58%     5 - 6 -6.5 +4.4 -10.9
  Jan 04, 2024 318   @ William & Mary L 70-77 43%     5 - 7 0 - 1 -13.8 -0.7 -13.6
  Jan 06, 2024 346   N.C. A&T W 77-59 76%     6 - 7 1 - 1 +2.3 +1.4 +2.0
  Jan 11, 2024 105   @ College of Charleston L 62-80 8%     6 - 8 1 - 2 -10.7 -10.6 +0.2
  Jan 13, 2024 134   Drexel L 69-89 23%     6 - 9 1 - 3 -20.6 +6.2 -29.9
  Jan 18, 2024 126   UNC Wilmington L 70-82 21%     6 - 10 1 - 4 -11.9 -1.3 -11.4
  Jan 20, 2024 242   Northeastern L 72-84 43%     6 - 11 1 - 5 -18.7 -3.4 -15.7
  Jan 25, 2024 294   @ Campbell L 68-78 35%     6 - 12 1 - 6 -14.5 -4.9 -10.0
  Jan 27, 2024 333   @ Hampton W 80-74 51%     7 - 12 2 - 6 -2.7 +8.7 -11.0
  Feb 01, 2024 294   Campbell L 67-69 56%     7 - 13 2 - 7 -11.9 -11.8 -0.1
  Feb 03, 2024 346   @ N.C. A&T W 69-65 57%     8 - 13 3 - 7 -6.3 -1.3 -4.6
  Feb 08, 2024 208   Stony Brook L 64-79 38%     8 - 14 3 - 8 -20.4 -10.0 -10.8
  Feb 12, 2024 154   @ Towson L 55-80 14%     8 - 15 3 - 9 -21.6 -9.1 -14.9
  Feb 15, 2024 173   Delaware W 73-67 31%     9 - 15 4 - 9 +2.7 -0.7 +3.4
  Feb 17, 2024 126   @ UNC Wilmington W 73-72 10%     10 - 15 5 - 9 +6.5 +7.7 -1.1
  Feb 22, 2024 242   @ Northeastern L 58-61 25%     10 - 16 5 - 10 -4.3 -10.0 +5.3
  Feb 24, 2024 122   @ Hofstra L 64-87 10%     10 - 17 5 - 11 -17.2 -4.2 -13.6
  Feb 29, 2024 318   William & Mary W 76-71 64%     11 - 17 6 - 11 -7.2 +5.7 -12.4
  Mar 02, 2024 213   Monmouth L 73-76 40%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 6.7 6.7 9th
10th 27.6 27.6 10th
11th 59.7 6.1 65.8 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 59.7 40.3 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 40.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 40.2
6-12 59.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 59.5
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 40.3% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
Lose Out 59.7% 0.2% 16.0 0.2