Holy Cross
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -10.0 #323
Expected Predictive Rating -8.2 #299
Pace 64.4 #298
Improvement -2.0 #277

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #303 C F+ C- D+ D-
Defense #320 D C D B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #343 1.11 #245 -5.4 #341
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #53 0.90 #34 +4.5 #19
Three Pointers 42% #161 0.99 #221 +0.0 #182
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #200 -0.9 #201
Freethrows 0.27 #293 73% #157 0.19 #266
Second Chance 20.0% #361 0.98 #257 0.20 #359
Turnovers 17.1% #226
Total Offense -4.9 #303

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #42 1.30 #332 -6.4 #355
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #236 0.93 #361 -0.9 #260
Three Pointers 37% #285 0.98 #134 +2.5 #88
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #318 -4.8 #319
Freethrows 0.26 #60 74% #295 0.19 #82
Second Chance 29.4% #133 1.07 #223 0.32 #173
Turnovers 13.5% #332
Total Defense -5.1 #320

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.8% #331 1.3% #290
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.2% #153 7.9% #319
Possession Length 18.6 #298 17.4 #195
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #318 0.16 #136
Improvement -0.1 #186 -1.9 #294

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.8% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.9% 1.8% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 18.8% 31.2% 9.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 22.5% 8.8% 33.2%
First Four1.8% 2.4% 1.4%
First Round1.2% 1.9% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Army (Away) - 43.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 49 - 1311 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 66 @Providence L 79 - 89 3% -10  0 - 1 +1 -1 B- F D+ +3 B B+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 14 @BYU L 53 - 98 1% -28  0 - 2 -23 -12 F+ D F+ -10 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 104 @Utah L 69 - 87 6% -9  0 - 3 -10 -2 C- F+ B+ -9 D+ C+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 237 Hampton W 67 - 61 29% +0  1 - 3 +2 +6 C+ C+ F -4 C- D+ C
 Tue, Nov 18 265 @Brown L 49 - 68 25% -12  1 - 4 -22 -14 D+ F F -11 F F C-
 Fri, Nov 21 277 @Sacred Heart L 66 - 79 27% -9  1 - 5 -17 -8 C- F F -9 F B+ F+
 Mon, Nov 24 172 Siena L 69 - 73 28% -1  1 - 6 -8 -0 A F D+ -8 F A+ D
 Wed, Dec 3 252 Northeastern W 76 - 59 43% +13  2 - 6 +9 +1 B F B+ +9 A C+ B
 Sat, Dec 6 193 @Fordham W 70 - 69 16% -7  3 - 6 +2 +6 B- A F+ -4 D C D+
 Tue, Dec 16 235 Dartmouth L 64 - 89 40% -11  3 - 7 -32 -10 D- F D+ -23 F C- B+
 Sat, Dec 20 178 @Harvard L 53 - 81 14% -16  3 - 8 -26 -11 F D A -19 F F C
 Wed, Dec 31 322 Bucknell W 65 - 58 61% +7  4 - 8 1 - 0 -6 -5 D+ F D+ -0 F+ B+ A
 Sat, Jan 3 175 Navy L 58 - 65 29% -6  4 - 9 1 - 1 -11 -6 F A+ D -6 D A- D+
 Wed, Jan 7 304 @Lehigh L 58 - 66 33% -5  4 - 10 1 - 2 -13 -10 D- F B -4 D- C C+
 Sat, Jan 10 233 @American W 84 - 73 20% +3  5 - 10 2 - 2 +10 +11 B+ D A- -1 A- D D
 Wed, Jan 14 334 Army W 82 - 75 66% +7  6 - 10 3 - 2 -7 +3 A- F B- -10 C- C D-
 Sat, Jan 17 315 @Lafayette L 55 - 74 36% -12  6 - 11 3 - 3 -25 -16 F F D- -11 C- F+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 175 @Navy L 68 - 85 14% -6  6 - 12 3 - 4 -15 +4 B C D- -20 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 233 American L 67 - 76 39% -8  6 - 13 3 - 5 -16 -3 B F F+ -14 D+ C- F
 Wed, Jan 28 214 @Colgate L 74 - 79 18% +0  6 - 14 3 - 6 -5 +4 B+ F A- -9 C F+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 334 @Army L 72 - 74 44%
 Mon, Feb 2 286 Boston University W 70 - 69 51%
 Sat, Feb 7 304 Lehigh W 70 - 69 54%
 Wed, Feb 11 214 Colgate L 70 - 74 36%
 Sun, Feb 15 318 @Loyola Maryland L 71 - 75 37%
 Wed, Feb 18 315 Lafayette W 72 - 70 58%
 Sun, Feb 22 322 @Bucknell L 68 - 71 39%
 Wed, Feb 25 286 @Boston University L 67 - 73 27%
 Sat, Feb 28 318 Loyola Maryland W 74 - 72 59%
Totals 10 - 19 7 - 11 -10 -5 C F+ C- -5 D C D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.0 2.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 6.8 3.4 0.6 0.1 13.5 4th
5th 1.3 9.1 4.5 0.4 15.3 5th
6th 0.4 7.6 6.3 0.6 14.8 6th
7th 0.0 3.5 10.2 1.6 0.0 15.3 7th
8th 1.5 9.7 4.2 0.0 15.4 8th
9th 0.5 5.8 6.1 0.4 12.8 9th
10th 0.9 3.8 4.9 0.9 0.0 10.5 10th
Total 0.9 4.3 12.2 20.5 23.8 19.6 12.1 4.9 1.6 0.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.2% 0.2
11-7 1.6% 9.9% 9.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.4
10-8 4.9% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.3 4.6
9-9 12.1% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.5 11.6
8-10 19.6% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.4 19.1
7-11 23.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 23.5
6-12 20.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 20.4
5-13 12.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 12.1
4-14 4.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.3
3-15 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.9
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 16.0 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.6%