Colgate
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.2 #213
Expected Predictive Rating -2.1 #202
Pace 67.4 #225
Improvement -2.8 #304

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #169 B- D C+ D D+
Defense #266 C- C+ D C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #248 1.17 #158 -1.2 #225
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #81 0.89 #40 +3.7 #31
Three Pointers 38% #242 1.13 #44 +0.7 #146
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #87 +3.1 #86
Freethrows 0.25 #321 71% #237 0.18 #315
Second Chance 26.4% #294 0.97 #292 0.26 #310
Turnovers 15.9% #143
Total Offense -0.2 #169

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #104 1.21 #260 -2.9 #279
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #198 0.72 #116 +0.5 #145
Three Pointers 39% #251 1.03 #200 +1.1 #141
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #218 -1.3 #219
Freethrows 0.31 #201 72% #160 0.22 #191
Second Chance 30.7% #185 0.97 #83 0.30 #121
Turnovers 14.2% #311
Total Defense -2.9 #266

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.7% #295 0.6% #219
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.0% #63 1.8% #214
Possession Length 17.8 #225 17.3 #173
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #205 0.14 #64
Improvement -0.6 #213 -2.2 #307

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.2% 25.4% 20.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 94.1% 98.1% 88.4%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 100.0% 99.2%
Conference Champion 29.7% 37.5% 18.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.4% 1.7% 3.4%
First Round22.1% 24.7% 18.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lehigh (Away) - 58.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 32 - 7
Quad 416 - 618 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 7 @Michigan St. L 69 - 80 2% -6  0 - 1 +13 +11 A+ C- D+ +1 A+ C- D
 Fri, Nov 7 256 Northeastern L 65 - 68 69% +1  0 - 2 -11 -12 F+ F B- +0 B A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 201 Drexel W 90 - 83 59% +7  1 - 2 +1 +17 A+ D F+ -16 F C- D
 Fri, Nov 14 6 @Illinois L 65 - 84 1% -11  1 - 3 +5 +4 B D A -0 A+ C D-
 Mon, Nov 17 173 @Siena W 72 - 69 31% +0  2 - 3 +5 +7 B D+ C+ -2 C D D+
 Thu, Nov 20 174 @Cornell L 94 - 95 2OT 31% +0  2 - 4 +1 -7 F C- C+ +8 B A+ B
 Fri, Nov 28 309 Albany W 69 - 67 70% -2  3 - 4 -7 -2 B- F C -4 F+ A- C-
 Sun, Nov 30 195 Fordham W 72 - 62 46% +9  4 - 4 +8 +7 A F+ D+ +2 B- C+ C+
 Wed, Dec 10 141 @St. Bonaventure L 77 - 85 24% +3  4 - 5 -4 +4 D B+ A+ -8 C- C C+
 Sun, Dec 21 5 @Florida L 60 - 90 1% -17  4 - 6 -6 +4 A+ D+ F -12 D+ F D+
 Sun, Dec 28 177 Harvard L 69 - 78 55% -2  4 - 7 -13 -5 D+ D+ C- -9 F A- D-
 Wed, Dec 31 316 @Lafayette W 85 - 77 62% +1  5 - 7 1 - 0 +2 +6 B F B- -4 C- D C
 Sat, Jan 3 335 @Army W 76 - 69 68% +3  6 - 7 2 - 0 -1 +8 C+ D B- -8 C- F F+
 Wed, Jan 7 233 American W 64 - 62 65% -5  7 - 7 3 - 0 -5 +0 D+ C- C+ -5 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 304 Lehigh L 77 - 78 78% -2  7 - 8 3 - 1 -12 +6 B- D- C+ -18 F+ C- F
 Wed, Jan 14 317 @Loyola Maryland W 86 - 80 62% +3  8 - 8 4 - 1 -0 +7 C D+ B- -7 D+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 323 Bucknell W 95 - 76 82% +23  9 - 8 5 - 1 +6 +16 A+ A- B -10 D+ C- C
 Wed, Jan 21 233 @American L 66 - 70 42% -1  9 - 9 5 - 2 -5 -3 D+ F+ C- -2 C+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 283 Boston University W 80 - 79 OT 74% -3  10 - 9 6 - 2 -9 -4 C B- F -5 D A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 28 325 Holy Cross W 79 - 74 82% -0  11 - 9 7 - 2 -8 +4 C- B- A -12 F B F
 Sat, Jan 31 304 @Lehigh W 74 - 72 58%
 Wed, Feb 4 335 Army W 81 - 70 85%
 Sat, Feb 7 323 @Bucknell W 74 - 70 63%
 Wed, Feb 11 325 @Holy Cross W 74 - 70 64%
 Sat, Feb 14 178 Navy W 71 - 70 55%
 Mon, Feb 16 283 @Boston University W 73 - 72 54%
 Sat, Feb 21 317 Loyola Maryland W 80 - 71 80%
 Wed, Feb 25 316 Lafayette W 78 - 69 80%
 Sat, Feb 28 178 @Navy L 68 - 73 32%
Totals 17 - 12 13 - 5 -3 +0 B- D C+ -3 C- C+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 5.7 11.5 9.3 2.1 29.7 1st
2nd 0.5 4.8 13.4 17.0 8.1 0.5 44.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.8 8.6 7.2 2.3 0.2 22.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 5th
6th 0.2 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.7 14.0 21.7 25.0 19.7 9.8 2.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 2.1    2.1
15-3 94.6% 9.3    6.9 2.4 0.0
14-4 58.2% 11.5    5.5 5.4 0.6
13-5 22.8% 5.7    1.6 3.1 1.1 0.0
12-6 5.1% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.7% 29.7 16.2 11.4 2.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 2.1% 44.4% 44.4% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.2
15-3 9.8% 33.7% 33.7% 14.8 0.1 0.9 2.1 0.3 6.5
14-4 19.7% 28.1% 28.1% 15.2 0.0 0.5 3.5 1.5 14.2
13-5 25.0% 22.8% 22.8% 15.4 0.3 2.8 2.7 19.3
12-6 21.7% 19.7% 19.7% 15.6 0.1 1.6 2.6 17.4
11-7 14.0% 18.0% 18.0% 15.8 0.6 1.9 11.5
10-8 5.7% 12.7% 12.7% 15.9 0.1 0.6 4.9
9-9 1.6% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 0.2 1.5
8-10 0.3% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.2% 23.2% 0.0% 15.3 76.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 13.7 3.7 32.4 52.1 11.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%