Ohio
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.2 #214
Expected Predictive Rating -2.1 #203
Pace 73.4 #64
Improvement -1.9 #276

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #222 C D+ C C D+
Defense #216 C D+ C C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #217 1.14 #195 -1.2 #223
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #96 1.00 #7 +4.5 #18
Three Pointers 38% #240 0.90 #318 -3.5 #301
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #181 -0.2 #183
Freethrows 0.32 #141 70% #271 0.22 #179
Second Chance 28.3% #247 0.95 #313 0.27 #279
Turnovers 16.0% #149
Total Offense -2.0 #222

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #95 1.08 #79 -0.3 #188
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #173 0.87 #329 -1.2 #279
Three Pointers 37% #283 1.04 #228 +1.4 #128
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #185 -0.1 #185
Freethrows 0.31 #197 75% #312 0.23 #229
Second Chance 33.6% #303 1.06 #214 0.36 #275
Turnovers 16.1% #205
Total Defense -1.3 #216

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #269 0.5% #212
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.8% #160 -0.2% #182
Possession Length 16.6 #106 17.1 #148
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #325 0.14 #75
Improvement -2.6 #317 +0.7 #144

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.6% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 18.6% 33.9% 10.8%
.500 or above in Conference 52.7% 76.4% 40.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round1.1% 1.6% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Away) - 33.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 31 - 6
Quad 34 - 65 - 12
Quad 48 - 413 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 156 Arkansas St. L 85 - 89 49% +2  0 - 1 -7 +4 B F C+ -10 C- F A
 Thu, Nov 6 88 Illinois St. W 72 - 68 26% +2  1 - 1 +7 +2 A- F A+ +6 B+ A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 42 @St. Mary's L 60 - 90 6% -15  1 - 2 -15 -5 D B+ F -11 C F D
 Sat, Nov 15 19 @Louisville L 81 - 106 2% -14  1 - 3 -5 +10 A+ D- F -12 C F C-
 Wed, Nov 19 248 Bethune-Cookman L 73 - 76 67% -4  1 - 4 -11 -1 C F A- -10 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 86 George Mason L 69 - 92 18% -20  1 - 5 -16 +1 C+ B+ D -19 D F F
 Tue, Nov 25 162 Loyola Marymount L 58 - 70 38% -4  1 - 6 -12 -14 F+ D- F +2 B+ C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 336 Maine W 79 - 57 85% +12  2 - 6 +8 +10 C+ C+ C -0 B- D A-
 Sat, Dec 6 168 Marshall W 88 - 81 51% +6  3 - 6 +3 +10 B+ D+ A- -6 B- D D+
 Sat, Dec 13 141 St. Bonaventure W 88 - 83 OT 33% +3  4 - 6 +6 +5 B+ A+ B- +0 B+ F B
 Sat, Dec 20 145 Bowling Green L 58 - 68 46% -9  4 - 7 0 - 1 -12 -14 F C D- +1 B+ D A+
 Tue, Dec 30 302 @Central Michigan W 80 - 64 58% +5  5 - 7 1 - 1 +11 -3 D- F C +12 B A+ B
 Sat, Jan 3 242 @Eastern Michigan W 68 - 67 43% -9  6 - 7 2 - 1 -0 -0 B F F -0 D A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 6 171 Massachusetts W 86 - 83 52% +3  7 - 7 3 - 1 -1 +7 A D C+ -8 D- A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 185 Buffalo W 91 - 80 56% +4  8 - 7 4 - 1 +6 +8 A+ A+ F -3 B D+ C
 Tue, Jan 13 164 @Toledo L 85 - 101 29% -4  8 - 8 4 - 2 -13 +10 C B- B -24 F F D
 Fri, Jan 16 295 @Ball St. L 71 - 76 55% -8  8 - 9 4 - 3 -10 -0 C- D- C -10 D C- C-
 Tue, Jan 20 310 Northern Illinois W 80 - 77 79% +5  9 - 9 5 - 3 -9 -0 C C- D -9 D- B- B-
 Fri, Jan 23 62 Akron L 65 - 86 19% -15  9 - 10 5 - 4 -15 -12 F D A+ -2 B A+ C
 Tue, Jan 27 143 @Kent St. L 57 - 72 24% -4  9 - 11 5 - 5 -11 -17 F F+ C+ +6 A+ F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 185 @Buffalo L 76 - 80 34%
 Tue, Feb 3 273 Western Michigan W 81 - 75 71%
 Sat, Feb 7 222 @Old Dominion L 75 - 78 40%
 Sat, Feb 14 91 @Miami (OH) L 76 - 88 13%
 Tue, Feb 17 295 Ball St. W 75 - 68 75%
 Sat, Feb 21 310 @Northern Illinois W 76 - 73 60%
 Sat, Feb 28 164 Toledo W 80 - 79 50%
 Tue, Mar 3 171 @Massachusetts L 77 - 82 31%
 Fri, Mar 6 91 Miami (OH) L 79 - 85 28%
Totals 13 - 16 9 - 9 -3 -2 C D+ C -1 C D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.8 0.1 2.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 6.0 4.7 0.6 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.9 8.2 8.2 1.3 0.0 18.6 5th
6th 0.1 6.0 12.1 2.4 0.1 20.8 6th
7th 0.0 2.7 12.6 4.5 0.1 19.9 7th
8th 0.7 8.3 6.2 0.3 15.6 8th
9th 0.0 2.1 3.7 0.4 6.2 9th
10th 0.2 1.9 0.5 2.5 10th
11th 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.2 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.7 5.2 15.3 26.1 26.4 17.1 7.5 1.5 0.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.2% 3.0% 3.0% 12.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 1.5% 3.0% 3.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
11-7 7.5% 2.4% 2.4% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.3
10-8 17.1% 2.1% 2.1% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 16.8
9-9 26.4% 1.4% 1.4% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 26.0
8-10 26.1% 0.8% 0.8% 15.8 0.0 0.2 25.9
7-11 15.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.3
6-12 5.2% 5.2
5-13 0.7% 0.7
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.0 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%