Albany
America East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.4 #317
Expected Predictive Rating -11.8 #333
Pace 66.5 #244
Improvement +1.9 #100

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #287 C- C- D- F+ C
Defense #318 C F D C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #164 1.14 #191 +0.0 #176
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #185 0.83 #79 +0.6 #149
Three Pointers 41% #185 0.90 #323 -2.5 #271
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #235 -2.0 #235
Freethrows 0.24 #341 66% #344 0.16 #353
Second Chance 31.5% #153 0.94 #317 0.30 #224
Turnovers 19.7% #343
Total Offense -4.4 #287

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #137 1.17 #198 -1.3 #223
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #246 0.73 #134 +1.1 #110
Three Pointers 42% #166 1.04 #218 -0.7 #215
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #206 -1.0 #212
Freethrows 0.31 #215 75% #307 0.23 #245
Second Chance 36.2% #344 1.24 #356 0.45 #360
Turnovers 13.8% #329
Total Defense -5.0 #318

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #182 0.9% #247
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.0% #242 0.9% #203
Possession Length 19.0 #332 16.9 #99
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #179 0.17 #170
Improvement +0.8 #141 +1.1 #111

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.6% 8.9% 6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 47.1% 64.5% 31.7%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 1.2% 5.2%
First Four7.5% 8.8% 6.3%
First Round3.8% 4.6% 3.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Baltimore Co. (Home) - 47.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 50 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 48 - 109 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 95 @Marquette L 53 - 80 6% -13  0 - 1 -18 -20 F B+ F +4 C+ B+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 171 @Massachusetts L 62 - 83 14% -7  0 - 2 -19 -13 F C F -5 A F C-
 Fri, Nov 14 109 @Rhode Island L 61 - 80 8% -6  0 - 3 -12 -3 F A+ F+ -10 A- F F
 Fri, Nov 21 175 @Siena L 63 - 73 15% -8  0 - 4 -8 +1 A+ F D+ -10 D+ F C+
 Fri, Nov 28 213 Colgate L 67 - 69 28% +2  0 - 5 -5 -3 B D- F -3 C- C+ D+
 Sat, Nov 29 192 Fordham L 68 - 88 24% -11  0 - 6 -22 -1 D B- C+ -21 F F B
 Sat, Dec 6 169 @Columbia L 65 - 93 14% -9  0 - 7 -26 -6 D F C- -20 D- F D-
 Wed, Dec 10 73 Yale L 82 - 93 6% -6  0 - 8 -3 +6 A F A+ -8 C B D+
 Sat, Dec 13 107 @Florida Atlantic L 79 - 105 7% -20  0 - 9 -19 -1 B- F+ D+ -14 F B C-
 Wed, Dec 17 222 @Stony Brook W 71 - 55 20% +8  1 - 9 +15 +3 A+ F F+ +14 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 167 Cornell L 75 - 83 29% +0  1 - 10 -11 +5 B C- C- -18 C- F F+
 Tue, Dec 30 89 @South Carolina L 67 - 96 5% -16  1 - 11 -20 +5 F A+ F -28 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 321 @Umass Lowell L 71 - 83 39% -10  1 - 12 0 - 1 -19 -1 F+ C+ D -18 C F F
 Sat, Jan 10 349 Bryant W 71 - 46 72% +13  2 - 12 1 - 1 +10 +9 A+ F C- +6 A+ F+ F+
 Thu, Jan 15 362 Binghamton W 69 - 53 82% +5  3 - 12 2 - 1 -3 -5 D D+ F +4 A- C D+
 Mon, Jan 19 201 Vermont W 75 - 68 35% +3  4 - 12 3 - 1 +2 +1 B- F+ C- +1 C+ C- A-
 Thu, Jan 22 337 @Maine L 49 - 52 46% +4  4 - 13 3 - 2 -11 -11 F D+ F+ -1 B B F
 Sat, Jan 24 316 @New Hampshire L 72 - 80 38% -3  4 - 14 3 - 3 -14 +4 A- C+ F -19 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 29 332 NJIT L 68 - 77 66% -5  4 - 15 3 - 4 -23 -7 F C C- -16 D- F F
 Sat, Jan 31 260 Maryland Baltimore Co. L 72 - 73 47%
 Thu, Feb 5 349 @Bryant L 67 - 68 50%
 Sat, Feb 7 321 Umass Lowell W 76 - 73 62%
 Sat, Feb 14 362 @Binghamton W 73 - 69 63%
 Thu, Feb 19 332 @NJIT L 71 - 73 44%
 Sat, Feb 21 260 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 69 - 76 27%
 Thu, Feb 26 337 Maine W 68 - 63 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 316 New Hampshire W 72 - 69 61%
 Tue, Mar 3 201 @Vermont L 65 - 75 18%
Totals 8 - 20 7 - 9 -9 -4 C- C- D- -5 C F D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 3.7 1.7 0.1 6.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.1 7.5 3.3 0.2 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 9.7 5.4 0.4 17.0 4th
5th 0.8 9.2 9.0 0.8 19.7 5th
6th 0.4 6.6 10.6 1.5 0.0 19.2 6th
7th 0.3 4.0 8.2 2.4 0.0 14.9 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 4.1 1.8 0.1 8.0 8th
9th 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.9 9th
Total 0.4 2.7 8.7 17.3 23.8 22.3 15.0 7.4 2.2 0.2 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 70.7% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 16.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1
10-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.2% 19.5% 19.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-5 2.2% 18.9% 18.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4 1.8
10-6 7.4% 14.4% 14.4% 16.0 1.1 6.4
9-7 15.0% 10.4% 10.4% 16.0 1.6 13.4
8-8 22.3% 8.6% 8.6% 16.0 1.9 20.4
7-9 23.8% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 1.5 22.3
6-10 17.3% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.8 16.5
5-11 8.7% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.2 8.5
4-12 2.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 2.6
3-13 0.4% 0.4
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 16.0 92.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%