Butler
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +7.5 76
Expected Predictive Rating +8.1 70
Pace 71.0 116
Improvement -7.8 360

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B #70 B- A- B- B+ B
Defense C+ #99 C+ B C+ A- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 39 59% 140 +3.8 57
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 297 40% 115 -1.9 278
Three Pointers 41% 185 35% 129 +0.6 154
1st FG Attempt 1.07 99 +2.5 99
Second Chance 36.4% 37 1.15 48 0.42 26
Turnovers 15.2% 74
Freethrows 0.37 17 71% 232 0.26 36
Total Offense +4.9 70

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 119 58% 183 -1.5 232
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 110 34% 37 +0.3 162
Three Pointers 37% 303 33% 141 +2.7 75
1st FG Attempt 0.99 131 +1.4 132
Second Chance 28.3% 94 0.92 42 0.26 56
Turnovers 17.4% 146
Freethrows 0.22 12 71% 103 0.16 12
Total Defense +2.6 99

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.1 44 +0.0 159
Shot Type Accuracy +1.4 122 -1.4 124
Possession Length 15.9 57 18.1 302
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 76 0.16 152
Improvement -3.9 #344 -3.9 #342

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 7.8% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.8% 6.8% 0.8%
Average Seed 10.8 10.6 11.0
.500 or above 62.8% 87.5% 58.2%
.500 or above in Conference 2.2% 9.7% 0.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 22.9% 7.7% 25.8%
First Four1.4% 4.9% 0.7%
First Round1.5% 4.6% 0.9%
Second Round0.4% 1.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Connecticut (Home) - 15.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 8
Quad 24 - 76 - 14
Quad 35 - 211 - 16
Quad 45 - 017 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 343 Southern Indiana W 88 - 58 97% +18  97% 1 - 0 A- +15 B- +4 B- B- D A- +10 B A- D+
 Sat, Nov 8 330 IU Indianapolis W 112 - 80 97% +14  84% 2 - 0 A +18 C+ +3 D A+ C+ A- +8 B+ A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 353 Chicago St. W 98 - 66 98% +24  98% 3 - 0 A- +15 A- +10 B- A+ C B- +4 F+ C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 37 @SMU L 85 - 87 18% +0  57% 3 - 1 A- +15 A- +10 A+ B- F B +5 C- B A+
 Fri, Nov 21 92 South Carolina W 79 - 72 58% +7  97% 4 - 1 B+ +12 B+ +8 C- A+ C+ B +5 A B+ F+
 Sun, Nov 23 23 Virginia W 80 - 73 19% +5  97% 5 - 1 A+ +24 A +13 A+ C D+ A +11 A+ B+ D
 Fri, Nov 28 151 Wright St. W 94 - 69 83% +5  48% 6 - 1 A +22 A- +9 A A+ B+ A +11 B A C+
 Tue, Dec 2 233 Eastern Michigan W 84 - 68 91% +7  85% 7 - 1 B +9 A +13 A A+ C C- -3 C+ C C+
 Sat, Dec 6 58 Boise St. L 68 - 77 54% -2  30% 7 - 2 C- -3 D+ -3 D A A C -0 A B D-
 Sat, Dec 13 60 Providence W 113 - 110 2OT 55% -0  36% 8 - 2 1 - 0 B +9 A+ +15 B A A+ D -7 C B+ F+
 Tue, Dec 16 8 @Connecticut L 60 - 79 7% -10  20% 8 - 3 1 - 1 B- +5 D+ -3 F+ B A+ B+ +8 B F A
 Sat, Dec 20 64 Northwestern W 61 - 58 46% +4  85% 9 - 3 B+ +11 F+ -9 D- B- F+ A+ +20 A+ A+ C+
 Mon, Dec 22 315 NJIT W 101 - 52 96% +29  98% 10 - 3 A+ +37 A+ +18 A+ A+ B+ A+ +17 B- A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 30 62 @Creighton L 85 - 89 33% -7  1% 10 - 4 1 - 2 B- +8 A- +11 C A- B C- -3 C- F B-
 Sat, Jan 3 30 Villanova L 67 - 85 34% -3  47% 10 - 5 1 - 3 D+ -6 D -4 F A+ C+ C -2 D A C+
 Tue, Jan 6 17 St. John's L 70 - 84 24% -4  30% 10 - 6 1 - 4 C +1 C +0 A+ F+ F C+ +1 C- A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 82 @Xavier L 75 - 89 42% -11  0% 10 - 7 1 - 5 C- -4 C +1 D- A+ C D+ -5 C F C
 Sat, Jan 17 54 @Seton Hall W 77 - 66 29% +6  72% 11 - 7 2 - 5 A+ +24 A+ +16 B+ F A+ A- +9 A+ C+ B+
 Tue, Jan 20 99 DePaul W 87 - 80 69% +2  47% 12 - 7 3 - 5 B +9 A +13 A+ A+ B+ D+ -4 B+ F+ C-
 Fri, Jan 23 88 Marquette W 87 - 76 66% +5  93% 13 - 7 4 - 5 B+ +14 A +14 C+ A+ A C+ +1 C- F A
 Wed, Jan 28 17 @St. John's L 70 - 92 11% -13  0% 13 - 8 4 - 6 C -1 A +13 B- C+ A+ F -17 F D F
 Sat, Jan 31 75 Georgetown L 64 - 77 61% -5  11% 13 - 9 4 - 7 D -8 D+ -4 D D A+ D -6 F A+ B-
 Wed, Feb 4 60 @Providence L 87 - 97 2OT 33% +0  51% 13 - 10 4 - 8 C+ +2 C+ +3 C+ C+ B C +0 C A D+
 Sat, Feb 7 88 @Marquette L 55 - 70 43% -8  13% 13 - 11 4 - 9 D+ -6 F -13 D F D- B+ +6 F A+ B+
 Wed, Feb 11 8 Connecticut L 68 - 79 16%
 Sun, Feb 15 54 Seton Hall W 71 - 70 52%
 Wed, Feb 18 75 @Georgetown L 74 - 77 39%
 Sat, Feb 21 82 Xavier W 82 - 78 64%
 Wed, Feb 25 30 @Villanova L 68 - 78 17%
 Wed, Mar 4 62 Creighton W 79 - 77 56%
 Sat, Mar 7 99 @DePaul L 73 - 74 47%
Totals 16 - 15 7 - 13 +7 B +5 B- A- B- C+ +3 C+ B C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B C+ C+ C+ C+ 44% 15% 41% B B- B+ B A- B- A- C- B+ C+ C B C+ C+ 41% 22% 37% C C+ B- B B C+ A C+ A-
1.16 59% 40% 35% +1 +1 1.07 36% 1.1 .42 15% .37 71% .26 1.05 58% 34% 33% -1 0 0.99 28% 0.9 .26 17% .22 71% .26
Nov
5		 Southern Indiana B- D- D+ A+ C+ 64% 11% 25% A B- A- D+ B- D A+ D- A+ A- A+ A+ C+ B+ 33% 22% 45% C B A- A A- D+ B- D- C
1.17 50% 33% 54% +2 +3 1.11 40% 0.9 .36 17% .47 69% .32 0.77 37% 15% 31% -14 -1 0.72 20% 0.6 .12 16% .27 71% .19
Nov
8		 IU Indianapolis C+ A C F D- 52% 13% 35% C+ D A+ B- A+ C+ A+ F A+ A- C+ A+ A+ A 48% 23% 29% D- B+ C A+ A+ B- D+ D D+
1.24 74% 38% 19% +1 +2 1.07 56% 1.3 .73 19% .59 67% .40 0.89 58% 25% 25% -7 0 0.88 28% 0.6 .16 19% .20 73% .15
Nov
11		 Chicago St. A- F F A+ B- 26% 2% 72% C+ B- C+ A+ A+ C A+ F+ A+ B- D C F F 42% 40% 19% C F+ A+ F C A+ B A+ A-
1.34 50% 0% 44% +8 +1 1.21 38% 1.9 .72 19% .51 70% .35 0.90 59% 38% 40% +2 -2 1.02 19% 1.3 .26 22% .23 62% .14
Nov
15		 SMU A- A- F A+ A+ 35% 17% 48% B A+ A+ F+ B- F A+ F A- B D F+ B- C+ 63% 15% 22% F C- D- A+ B A+ B B- B
1.14 67% 22% 48% +10 0 1.23 43% 0.8 .32 23% .40 61% .24 1.17 68% 50% 33% +8 +3 1.22 42% 0.8 .32 21% .26 73% .19
Nov
21		 South Carolina B+ C+ D- D+ C 43% 35% 22% D C- A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ F A+ B C+ A+ A A+ 40% 18% 42% C- A A D+ B+ F+ D+ A+ B-
1.15 60% 31% 30% -3 -1 0.93 43% 1.5 .66 15% .58 59% .34 1.05 59% 20% 26% -8 0 0.87 21% 1.1 .24 10% .36 68% .24
Nov
23		 Virginia A C+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 22% 30% A- A+ A+ F C D+ A+ D+ A+ A A- A A+ A+ 47% 11% 42% D A+ B B B+ D B+ A+ A+
1.16 55% 60% 43% +7 +1 1.17 40% 0.6 .23 19% .52 69% .36 1.06 50% 33% 26% -9 +2 0.87 38% 1.0 .38 13% .25 47% .12
Nov
28		 Wright St. A- A- A+ D- A- 52% 17% 31% B+ A B A+ A+ B+ A F C+ A B C+ B+ A- 54% 18% 28% F+ B A- B+ A C+ A+ A- A+
1.25 68% 67% 29% +8 +1 1.20 35% 1.5 .52 15% .40 58% .23 0.92 52% 36% 29% -6 +1 0.93 25% 1.0 .25 17% .05 67% .03
Dec
2		 Eastern Michigan A F A A+ A- 51% 17% 32% B A A A+ A+ C B B+ B+ C- A- A+ F B 59% 16% 25% F C+ C+ C- C C+ B- F D
1.27 42% 50% 60% +6 +1 1.17 39% 1.6 .64 17% .34 79% .27 1.03 47% 0% 54% -5 +2 0.96 26% 1.0 .26 18% .24 92% .22
Dec
6		 Boise St. D+ C- C F F+ 52% 19% 29% A D C+ A+ A A C F D+ C C+ A+ A+ A+ 54% 23% 23% C+ A F A+ B D- D- D F
1.01 56% 40% 20% -7 +1 0.90 24% 1.6 .37 12% .29 59% .17 1.15 57% 25% 25% -7 +1 0.90 42% 0.8 .32 12% .44 81% .35
Dec
13		 Providence A+ A F C B- 48% 15% 37% A B A+ C+ A A+ A+ C A+ D C+ D F C- 39% 16% 46% C+ C D+ A+ B+ F+ A+ C- A+
1.32 67% 22% 35% +2 +2 1.10 43% 1.0 .43 8% .48 71% .34 1.28 59% 45% 41% +6 +1 1.16 37% 0.9 .33 10% .23 78% .18
Dec
16		 Connecticut D+ F F F F 51% 6% 43% A+ F+ C+ A- B A+ B+ A A B+ D A+ D B+ 49% 20% 31% C+ B F D+ F A A- A+ A
0.86 35% 0% 23% -21 +3 0.65 27% 1.1 .30 14% .40 79% .32 1.13 68% 20% 38% +3 +1 1.10 47% 1.2 .56 21% .24 62% .15
Dec
20		 Northwestern F+ A- F F D- 29% 20% 51% C D- C+ B- B- F+ D+ C+ C- A+ B B+ A+ A+ 33% 33% 33% A A+ B+ A+ A+ C+ A+ F A+
0.91 67% 20% 23% -9 -1 0.82 33% 1.0 .33 21% .26 71% .19 0.87 56% 33% 22% -8 -2 0.81 24% 0.8 .19 13% .16 89% .14
Dec
22		 NJIT A+ A+ B+ A- A+ 42% 13% 44% B- A+ B- A+ A+ B+ A+ B A+ A+ C A+ B+ B 45% 21% 34% F+ B- A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+
1.39 73% 43% 39% +10 +1 1.25 37% 1.5 .53 11% .49 75% .37 0.72 54% 18% 28% -9 0 0.85 8% 0.7 .05 19% .19 45% .09
Dec
30		 Creighton A- C F C+ C- 45% 17% 38% A- C A+ D- A- B A A+ A+ C- C+ C D- C 38% 9% 53% F+ C- D+ F F B- C+ F D
1.17 56% 20% 35% -4 +1 0.97 46% 0.9 .39 14% .30 79% .24 1.23 62% 40% 38% +5 +1 1.15 32% 1.3 .42 17% .25 93% .23
Jan
3		 Villanova D D+ F+ F F 37% 19% 44% B F B+ A+ A+ C+ C+ A+ A C F C D+ D- 40% 25% 36% B D A+ C A C+ D+ B- D+
0.94 53% 30% 17% -14 0 0.73 36% 1.5 .56 20% .25 93% .23 1.20 81% 38% 37% +11 0 1.23 23% 1.0 .23 15% .33 70% .23
Jan
6		 St. John's C A+ D A+ A+ 38% 27% 36% D+ A+ D- F F+ F A- A+ A+ C+ D C- D- D- 37% 33% 30% A+ C- A+ F A+ F A+ C A+
0.98 71% 33% 44% +9 -1 1.18 22% 0.7 .15 29% .36 83% .30 1.18 64% 40% 39% +5 -2 1.08 20% 1.4 .29 7% .23 73% .17
Jan
14		 Xavier C D- A F F+ 39% 16% 45% B D- C A+ A+ C B- A+ A- D+ F A- B+ C+ 41% 21% 38% D- C F C F C A- F B-
1.03 50% 50% 26% -7 +1 0.90 26% 1.7 .43 18% .32 79% .25 1.22 72% 31% 30% +2 0 1.07 39% 1.0 .39 12% .19 83% .16
Jan
17		 Seton Hall A+ A+ A+ F A- 42% 16% 42% C+ B+ F F F A+ A+ A+ A+ A- C- A A+ A+ 34% 32% 34% A+ A+ F A+ C+ B+ F B+ F
1.15 67% 57% 22% -1 +1 1.02 17% 0.6 .10 12% .69 80% .56 0.98 59% 25% 18% -12 -2 0.74 49% 0.7 .35 19% .46 68% .31
Jan
20		 DePaul A A A- A+ A+ 41% 25% 34% C+ A+ C+ A+ A+ B+ A+ D+ A+ D+ A+ F B B+ 25% 16% 59% C B+ D+ F F+ C- D+ F F
1.21 67% 45% 47% +12 0 1.25 31% 1.4 .42 17% .52 68% .35 1.11 38% 63% 30% -5 0 0.92 32% 1.4 .44 17% .35 86% .30
Jan
23		 Marquette A C+ A+ F C 53% 13% 34% A C+ A- A+ A+ A A+ C- A+ C+ F F A+ D+ 42% 13% 44% B+ C- F+ D- F A B+ B B+
1.24 60% 50% 25% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.3 .52 16% .52 74% .39 1.08 77% 71% 17% +2 +1 1.08 38% 1.1 .41 20% .25 64% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 St. John's A F A+ A C 54% 13% 33% A B- B- C C+ A+ A+ F A F F D- F F 40% 21% 38% A- F D C- D F A+ D- A+
1.12 40% 50% 40% -5 +2 0.96 32% 0.9 .29 10% .53 50% .27 1.47 71% 45% 45% +13 0 1.29 42% 1.2 .52 8% .24 79% .19
Jan
31		 Georgetown D+ F F B D- 43% 24% 33% B D A- F D A+ B- A+ A D F+ F F F 31% 29% 40% A- F A+ D- A+ B- A D+ A-
0.99 43% 25% 38% -8 0 0.86 37% 0.6 .23 11% .31 89% .28 1.19 67% 50% 53% +17 -2 1.33 18% 1.3 .23 15% .26 79% .20
Feb
4		 Providence C+ D- A+ C- C 47% 21% 32% B C+ C B C+ B A+ D A+ C F+ D C C- 33% 20% 47% A- C D- A+ A D+ F A+ F
1.10 48% 58% 33% -1 +1 1.02 29% 1.1 .31 13% .49 68% .33 1.23 72% 45% 35% +7 0 1.15 40% 0.8 .30 13% .57 67% .38
Feb
7		 Marquette F F+ F B- F+ 47% 16% 38% B D A- F F D- B- F D+ B+ A- F F F 37% 4% 59% C+ F A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A A+
0.82 48% 14% 35% -8 +1 0.89 40% 0.4 .14 24% .29 60% .18 1.05 47% 50% 47% +8 +2 1.22 13% 0.5 .07 18% .18 60% .11



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 1.4 0.2 4.0 4th
5th 0.0 2.8 4.4 0.6 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 2.0 11.0 2.4 0.0 15.4 6th
7th 0.3 11.2 6.1 0.1 17.7 7th
8th 0.0 4.3 12.3 0.7 17.3 8th
9th 1.0 11.7 3.4 0.0 16.1 9th
10th 0.2 5.6 7.3 0.2 13.3 10th
11th 2.5 5.1 0.9 8.4 11th
Total 2.7 11.7 24.5 29.0 20.8 9.1 2.0 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.2% 61.9% 4.8% 57.1% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 60.0%
10-10 2.0% 35.7% 3.3% 32.4% 10.5 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 33.5%
9-11 9.1% 8.9% 1.5% 7.4% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.0 8.3 7.5%
8-12 20.8% 2.0% 0.5% 1.5% 11.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 20.3 1.5%
7-13 29.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 11.3 0.1 0.0 28.9 0.0%
6-14 24.5% 0.2% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.5
5-15 11.7% 0.2% 0.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.7
4-16 2.7% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 2.7
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.3% 0.5% 1.8% 10.8 97.7 1.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.7%