Dartmouth
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.8 #228
Expected Predictive Rating -3.5 #219
Pace 73.7 #58
Improvement +3.3 #51

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #220 C+ D+ D C C
Defense #242 C C+ F+ B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #346 1.08 #271 -5.8 #346
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #262 0.73 #221 -1.7 #274
Three Pointers 53% #13 1.12 #45 +8.9 #7
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #133 +1.3 #133
Freethrows 0.32 #148 72% #211 0.23 #152
Second Chance 25.6% #313 1.08 #106 0.28 #261
Turnovers 19.6% #327
Total Offense -2.0 #220

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #35 1.18 #217 -4.0 #313
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #228 0.75 #170 +0.7 #131
Three Pointers 37% #293 0.92 #56 +3.9 #40
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #153 +0.7 #154
Freethrows 0.27 #71 72% #167 0.20 #80
Second Chance 30.7% #186 0.97 #100 0.30 #140
Turnovers 12.4% #359
Total Defense -1.8 #242

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #204 1.3% #293
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.7% #128 -2.7% #128
Possession Length 16.6 #108 16.5 #61
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #299 0.18 #208
Improvement +1.8 #85 +1.5 #98

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 5.8% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.3 15.5
.500 or above 14.2% 23.9% 5.1%
.500 or above in Conference 61.3% 79.7% 43.9%
Conference Champion 3.3% 6.1% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 1.1% 5.1%
First Four0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
First Round3.7% 5.4% 2.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Harvard (Home) - 48.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 34 - 44 - 9
Quad 47 - 511 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 161 Marist L 56 - 75 48% -8  0 - 1 -22 -15 F D+ F -6 D+ C C-
 Wed, Nov 12 347 @Bryant L 75 - 82 69% -1  0 - 2 -16 -5 C- F D -10 F+ A- F
 Sun, Nov 16 173 Appalachian St. L 77 - 85 51% -5  0 - 3 -12 +2 A C- F -14 F C C+
 Sat, Nov 29 233 @St. Peter's W 87 - 61 40% +7  1 - 3 +25 +21 A B A +5 B+ C+ D-
 Wed, Dec 3 320 New Hampshire W 69 - 68 80% -2  2 - 3 -12 -8 C+ F F -4 C+ B F
 Sat, Dec 6 111 @Wyoming L 80 - 93 16% -1  2 - 4 -6 +7 A+ B- F -13 F A+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 103 @Colorado St. L 55 - 76 14% -9  2 - 5 -13 -11 D+ D- F -5 F A+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 286 Boston University W 77 - 64 73% +9  3 - 5 +3 +1 C+ F C +3 A+ C+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 326 @Holy Cross W 89 - 64 63% +11  4 - 5 +18 +16 A+ C F +2 B+ B- F
 Fri, Dec 19 274 @Sacred Heart L 63 - 85 48% -8  4 - 6 -25 -17 F C- F -7 A F F
 Mon, Dec 29 5 @Florida L 72 - 94 1% -21  4 - 7 +3 +7 B+ C B+ -3 C+ D+ C
 Mon, Jan 5 165 @Harvard W 76 - 68 27% +3  5 - 7 1 - 0 +11 +12 A B+ C -0 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 176 @Cornell W 102 - 91 29% +8  6 - 7 2 - 0 +13 +16 B+ B+ A+ -4 B+ C D+
 Sat, Jan 17 181 Penn L 74 - 84 52% -1  6 - 8 2 - 1 -14 -4 D- C C- -10 C- C F
 Mon, Jan 19 214 Princeton W 71 - 69 59% -3  7 - 8 3 - 1 -4 +8 C+ B- A -11 C- B- F
 Sat, Jan 24 182 Columbia L 69 - 79 53% -4  7 - 9 3 - 2 -15 -9 D- C D -6 B B F
 Fri, Jan 30 80 @Yale L 68 - 83 10% -3  7 - 10 3 - 3 -5 +2 C+ F+ C -9 F A- C-
 Sat, Jan 31 281 @Brown W 77 - 70 OT 50% +4  8 - 10 4 - 3 +3 +2 C F+ C- +1 B D+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 165 Harvard L 71 - 72 48%
 Fri, Feb 13 80 Yale L 74 - 82 22%
 Sat, Feb 14 281 Brown W 73 - 67 71%
 Sat, Feb 21 182 @Columbia L 75 - 80 31%
 Fri, Feb 27 181 @Penn L 76 - 81 31%
 Sat, Feb 28 214 @Princeton L 71 - 75 36%
 Sat, Mar 7 176 Cornell W 90 - 89 52%
Totals 11 - 14 7 - 7 -4 -2 C+ D+ D -2 C C+ F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 1.6 0.3 3.3 1st
2nd 0.4 6.9 6.8 1.0 15.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 6.6 11.0 1.4 0.0 19.0 3rd
4th 2.3 14.8 2.4 0.0 19.4 4th
5th 0.4 10.1 6.4 0.0 17.0 5th
6th 0.0 5.0 9.7 0.3 15.1 6th
7th 2.2 6.8 1.4 10.4 7th
8th 0.6 0.1 0.7 8th
Total 2.8 12.4 23.6 28.4 20.5 9.5 2.6 0.3 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 100.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1
10-4 60.2% 1.6    0.5 1.0 0.1
9-5 14.1% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1
8-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 0.9 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 0.3% 14.8% 14.8% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
10-4 2.6% 12.9% 12.9% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.3
9-5 9.5% 11.0% 11.0% 15.0 0.1 0.9 0.1 8.5
8-6 20.5% 8.7% 8.7% 15.5 0.9 0.9 18.7
7-7 28.4% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.7 27.6
6-8 23.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 23.5
5-9 12.4% 12.4
4-10 2.8% 2.8
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 15.3 96.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.8%