Dartmouth
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.1#208
Expected Predictive Rating-5.4#247
Pace75.2#46
Improvement+6.8#1

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#222
First Shot+0.5#162
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#327
Layup/Dunks-9.2#363
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#198
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.2#6
Freethrows+0.9#123
Improvement+3.1#14

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#213
First Shot-3.6#299
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#30
Layups/Dunks-9.0#363
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#192
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#36
Freethrows+0.7#129
Improvement+3.7#5
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 5.5% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 23.1% 33.4% 13.4%
.500 or above in Conference 43.9% 49.1% 39.0%
Conference Champion 3.5% 4.6% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 17.0% 13.7% 20.1%
First Four0.6% 0.3% 0.8%
First Round4.2% 5.4% 3.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Away) - 48.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 43 - 10
Quad 48 - 511 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sun, Nov 9 163 Marist L 56-75 51%     0 - 1 -22.3 -16.6 -5.0
  Wed, Nov 12 299 @Bryant L 75-82 55%     0 - 2 -11.4 -3.0 -8.0
  Sun, Nov 16 225 Appalachian St. L 77-85 64%     0 - 3 -14.8 -0.1 -14.5
  Sat, Nov 29 290 @St. Peter's W 87-61 54%     1 - 3 +22.0 +19.7 +4.0
  Wed, Dec 3 338 New Hampshire W 69-68 84%     2 - 3 -12.8 -7.0 -5.8
  Sat, Dec 6 90 @Wyoming L 80-93 13%     2 - 4 -4.1 +7.8 -11.4
  Tue, Dec 9 70 @Colorado St. L 55-76 10%     2 - 5 -10.0 -10.7 -1.6
  Sat, Dec 13 288 Boston University W 77-64 74%     3 - 5 +3.1 +0.6 +3.4
  Tue, Dec 16 311 @Holy Cross W 89-64 60%     4 - 5 +19.2 +16.2 +4.1
  Fri, Dec 19 268 @Sacred Heart L 79-80 49%    
  Mon, Dec 29 13 @Florida L 66-90 1%    
  Mon, Jan 5 200 @Harvard L 71-75 38%    
  Sat, Jan 10 162 @Cornell L 84-90 29%    
  Sat, Jan 17 254 Penn W 82-77 69%    
  Mon, Jan 19 257 Princeton W 75-70 69%    
  Sat, Jan 24 133 Columbia L 76-78 44%    
  Fri, Jan 30 78 @Yale L 74-87 11%    
  Sat, Jan 31 222 @Brown L 69-71 41%    
  Sat, Feb 7 200 Harvard W 74-72 59%    
  Fri, Feb 13 78 Yale L 77-84 25%    
  Sat, Feb 14 222 Brown W 72-68 62%    
  Sat, Feb 21 133 @Columbia L 73-81 24%    
  Fri, Feb 27 254 @Penn L 79-80 47%    
  Sat, Feb 28 257 @Princeton L 72-73 48%    
  Sat, Mar 7 162 Cornell W 87-86 50%    
Projected Record 11 - 14 6 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.5 1st
2nd 0.3 2.3 4.4 2.8 0.7 0.1 10.5 2nd
3rd 0.4 4.2 6.7 3.3 0.4 0.0 15.0 3rd
4th 0.3 4.8 8.7 3.1 0.2 17.1 4th
5th 0.2 4.3 9.0 2.8 0.2 16.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.4 7.7 2.9 0.2 14.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.3 6.2 3.0 0.1 13.1 7th
8th 0.2 1.2 2.9 3.7 1.6 0.1 9.7 8th
Total 0.2 1.3 3.3 7.2 11.5 15.4 17.2 16.2 12.3 8.4 4.4 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
12-2 88.8% 0.6    0.4 0.1
11-3 62.1% 1.2    0.6 0.5 0.1
10-4 27.0% 1.2    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
9-5 5.3% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1
8-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-1 0.2% 23.5% 23.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-2 0.6% 28.9% 28.9% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
11-3 1.9% 18.2% 18.2% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.5
10-4 4.4% 15.2% 15.2% 14.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.7
9-5 8.4% 13.3% 13.3% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 7.3
8-6 12.3% 8.8% 8.8% 15.3 0.0 0.6 0.4 11.2
7-7 16.2% 5.6% 5.6% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 15.3
6-8 17.2% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 17.1
5-9 15.4% 15.4
4-10 11.5% 11.5
3-11 7.2% 7.2
2-12 3.3% 3.3
1-13 1.3% 1.3
0-14 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 1.3 95.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%