Furman
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#152
Expected Predictive Rating+1.4#147
Pace66.4#266
Improvement+4.7#6

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#134
First Shot+3.2#89
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#304
Layup/Dunks+3.3#67
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#225
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#131
Freethrows-0.9#238
Improvement+4.0#5

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#193
First Shot+0.8#140
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#290
Layups/Dunks+0.7#144
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#356
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#144
Freethrows+2.9#34
Improvement+0.7#127
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.4% 24.7% 19.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 92.2% 95.1% 83.7%
.500 or above in Conference 92.9% 94.1% 89.3%
Conference Champion 30.3% 32.7% 23.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.8%
First Round23.2% 24.5% 19.3%
Second Round1.3% 1.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Away) - 74.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 34 - 55 - 7
Quad 414 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 106 High Point L 71-97 37%     0 - 1 -21.9 -6.0 -14.9
  Fri, Nov 7 143 Troy L 61-64 59%     0 - 2 -4.9 -11.5 +6.5
  Fri, Nov 14 93 @Northern Iowa L 54-70 22%     0 - 3 -7.3 -5.1 -3.6
  Sun, Nov 23 210 Queens W 90-79 74%     1 - 3 +4.7 +18.7 -12.7
  Thu, Nov 27 104 Richmond W 73-72 36%     2 - 3 +5.2 +3.4 +1.7
  Fri, Nov 28 92 Illinois St. L 65-72 30%     2 - 4 -1.2 -3.0 +1.5
  Wed, Dec 3 180 @Elon W 97-88 46%     3 - 4 +10.6 +18.9 -8.5
  Sat, Dec 6 200 Harvard W 79-69 72%     4 - 4 +4.4 +5.7 -1.1
  Thu, Dec 18 319 @Manhattan W 80-73 74%    
  Sun, Dec 21 256 Charleston Southern W 78-69 80%    
  Wed, Dec 31 170 Mercer W 78-74 66%    
  Sat, Jan 3 297 Western Carolina W 80-69 84%    
  Wed, Jan 7 247 @Chattanooga W 74-71 59%    
  Sat, Jan 10 331 VMI W 81-67 90%    
  Wed, Jan 14 232 @Samford W 75-73 55%    
  Sat, Jan 17 221 Wofford W 76-69 74%    
  Wed, Jan 21 354 @The Citadel W 77-66 84%    
  Sat, Jan 24 291 @UNC Greensboro W 76-71 65%    
  Thu, Jan 29 232 Samford W 78-70 75%    
  Sun, Feb 1 247 Chattanooga W 77-68 78%    
  Wed, Feb 4 124 @East Tennessee St. L 70-75 32%    
  Sun, Feb 8 291 UNC Greensboro W 79-68 83%    
  Wed, Feb 11 170 @Mercer L 75-77 45%    
  Sat, Feb 14 331 @VMI W 78-70 76%    
  Wed, Feb 18 124 East Tennessee St. W 73-72 53%    
  Sat, Feb 21 221 @Wofford W 73-72 54%    
  Wed, Feb 25 354 The Citadel W 80-63 94%    
  Sat, Feb 28 297 @Western Carolina W 77-72 67%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.8 7.6 8.4 6.0 2.9 0.7 30.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 6.1 9.0 6.2 1.9 0.3 25.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 5.7 6.8 2.6 0.5 0.0 17.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.4 4.1 1.3 0.1 11.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 3.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 3.6 6.5 9.1 12.2 15.1 15.5 14.3 10.3 6.3 2.9 0.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 100.0% 2.9    2.8 0.1
16-2 95.2% 6.0    5.3 0.7
15-3 81.3% 8.4    6.0 2.3 0.1
14-4 53.2% 7.6    3.7 3.3 0.6 0.0
13-5 24.6% 3.8    1.1 1.8 0.8 0.1
12-6 5.4% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.3% 30.3 19.7 8.3 1.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 50.2% 50.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4
17-1 2.9% 46.5% 46.5% 12.5 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.5
16-2 6.3% 41.9% 41.9% 13.2 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.8 0.1 3.7
15-3 10.3% 37.3% 37.3% 13.6 0.2 1.5 1.7 0.4 6.5
14-4 14.3% 30.2% 30.2% 13.9 0.1 1.0 2.4 0.8 0.0 10.0
13-5 15.5% 25.9% 25.9% 14.3 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.4 0.1 11.5
12-6 15.1% 20.2% 20.2% 14.5 0.2 1.2 1.5 0.2 12.0
11-7 12.2% 15.1% 15.1% 14.8 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.3 10.3
10-8 9.1% 11.9% 11.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 8.0
9-9 6.5% 8.4% 8.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 6.0
8-10 3.6% 7.0% 7.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 3.3
7-11 2.2% 4.8% 4.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.0
6-12 0.9% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.4% 23.4% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.2 8.8 5.9 1.7 76.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.3 1.2 2.4 52.4 43.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%