Preseason Rankings
Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#170
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace78.9#9
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#125
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#255
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 5.7% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.5 13.0
.500 or above 39.9% 54.9% 29.2%
.500 or above in Conference 38.7% 48.5% 31.8%
Conference Champion 4.1% 6.2% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 13.6% 8.5% 17.3%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round4.0% 5.7% 2.8%
Second Round0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Away) - 41.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 35 - 86 - 14
Quad 48 - 314 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 185   @ Charlotte L 74-76 42%    
  Nov 10, 2025 240   @ SIU Edwardsville W 75-74 51%    
  Nov 14, 2025 3   @ Duke L 64-90 1%    
  Nov 19, 2025 143   Louisiana Tech W 74-73 54%    
  Nov 22, 2025 244   Ball St. W 82-75 72%    
  Nov 26, 2025 143   @ Louisiana Tech L 71-76 33%    
  Nov 28, 2025 326   Alcorn St. W 78-69 78%    
  Dec 07, 2025 298   Southern Indiana W 83-73 79%    
  Dec 14, 2025 214   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 80-81 47%    
  Dec 18, 2025 107   Bradley L 75-77 42%    
  Dec 21, 2025 109   @ Illinois St. L 74-82 25%    
  Dec 29, 2025 112   Belmont L 83-85 44%    
  Jan 01, 2026 110   @ Northern Iowa L 71-79 25%    
  Jan 04, 2026 114   @ Drake L 63-70 26%    
  Jan 10, 2026 241   Evansville W 78-72 71%    
  Jan 14, 2026 109   Illinois St. L 77-79 43%    
  Jan 17, 2026 127   @ Murray St. L 72-78 31%    
  Jan 21, 2026 107   @ Bradley L 72-80 24%    
  Jan 24, 2026 114   Drake L 66-67 45%    
  Jan 27, 2026 154   @ Illinois-Chicago L 78-82 37%    
  Jan 31, 2026 261   Valparaiso W 83-76 72%    
  Feb 03, 2026 241   @ Evansville W 76-75 51%    
  Feb 09, 2026 141   Southern Illinois W 79-78 53%    
  Feb 12, 2026 127   Murray St. L 74-75 50%    
  Feb 15, 2026 261   @ Valparaiso W 80-79 54%    
  Feb 18, 2026 110   Northern Iowa L 74-76 44%    
  Feb 21, 2026 112   @ Belmont L 80-88 27%    
  Feb 25, 2026 141   @ Southern Illinois L 76-81 33%    
  Mar 01, 2026 154   Illinois-Chicago W 81-79 56%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.9 2.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.6 3.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.0 3.6 1.2 0.1 9.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.8 4.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.9 4.2 1.4 0.1 11.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.5 4.2 1.5 0.1 12.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.5 4.5 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 12.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.3 3.7 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 11.8 10th
11th 0.3 0.9 2.0 2.3 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 8.9 11th
Total 0.3 0.9 2.3 3.8 6.1 7.7 9.1 10.2 10.5 10.5 9.4 8.2 6.9 5.2 3.7 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 98.7% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 90.5% 0.7    0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 69.9% 1.1    0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0
15-5 43.8% 1.1    0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 16.6% 0.6    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 3.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 50.3% 50.3% 6.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 51.5% 45.8% 5.6% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.4%
18-2 0.3% 42.8% 36.3% 6.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 10.3%
17-3 0.7% 31.8% 31.8% 11.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5
16-4 1.5% 24.0% 23.5% 0.5% 11.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 1.2 0.7%
15-5 2.6% 21.3% 21.3% 11.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.0
14-6 3.7% 14.6% 14.6% 12.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.2
13-7 5.2% 11.5% 11.5% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.6
12-8 6.9% 6.5% 6.5% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.5
11-9 8.2% 4.3% 4.3% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.9
10-10 9.4% 3.3% 3.3% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.1
9-11 10.5% 2.3% 2.3% 16.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.2
8-12 10.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.4
7-13 10.2% 0.6% 0.6% 21.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.1
6-14 9.1% 0.3% 0.3% 18.7 0.0 0.0 9.0
5-15 7.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.7
4-16 6.1% 6.1
3-17 3.8% 3.8
2-18 2.3% 2.3
1-19 0.9% 0.9
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 96.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%