Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#182
Expected Predictive Rating-1.5#189
Pace75.8#43
Improvement+0.8#118

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#238
First Shot-0.1#178
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#334
Layup/Dunks+6.6#19
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#332
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#192
Freethrows-3.3#335
Improvement+0.5#131

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#127
First Shot+1.7#112
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#236
Layups/Dunks-1.6#246
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#322
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#67
Freethrows+2.5#45
Improvement+0.3#161
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.6% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 28.4% 41.1% 19.0%
.500 or above in Conference 26.4% 38.8% 17.2%
Conference Champion 1.1% 2.1% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 14.1% 7.3% 19.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round1.8% 2.6% 1.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Home) - 42.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 35 - 76 - 14
Quad 47 - 313 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 198 @Charlotte L 76-92 42%     0 - 1 -15.4 +3.6 -19.2
  Mon, Nov 10 234 @SIU Edwardsville W 64-55 48%     1 - 1 +7.9 -8.1 +15.8
  Fri, Nov 14 2 @Duke L 62-100 1%     1 - 2 -12.3 -2.9 -6.1
  Wed, Nov 19 189 Louisiana Tech W 60-51 63%     2 - 2 +4.2 -12.9 +16.9
  Sat, Nov 22 307 Ball St. W 70-52 82%     3 - 2 +6.7 -1.3 +9.4
  Wed, Nov 26 189 @Louisiana Tech L 73-75 40%     3 - 3 -0.8 +7.1 -8.0
  Fri, Nov 28 333 Alcorn St. L 74-81 80%     3 - 4 -17.5 -12.4 -4.2
  Sun, Dec 7 318 Southern Indiana W 77-55 84%     4 - 4 +9.8 +5.4 +5.9
  Sun, Dec 14 233 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70-68 48%     5 - 4 +0.9 +0.8 +0.2
  Thu, Dec 18 114 Bradley L 72-74 43%    
  Sun, Dec 21 92 @Illinois St. L 70-80 16%    
  Mon, Dec 29 87 Belmont L 77-82 33%    
  Thu, Jan 1 93 @Northern Iowa L 61-71 18%    
  Sun, Jan 4 136 @Drake L 70-76 29%    
  Sat, Jan 10 269 Evansville W 76-69 75%    
  Wed, Jan 14 92 Illinois St. L 73-77 34%    
  Sat, Jan 17 97 @Murray St. L 77-87 20%    
  Wed, Jan 21 114 @Bradley L 69-77 24%    
  Sat, Jan 24 136 Drake L 73-74 50%    
  Tue, Jan 27 192 @Illinois-Chicago L 74-76 40%    
  Sat, Jan 31 211 Valparaiso W 74-69 67%    
  Tue, Feb 3 269 @Evansville W 73-72 55%    
  Mon, Feb 9 129 Southern Illinois L 76-77 49%    
  Thu, Feb 12 97 Murray St. L 80-84 37%    
  Sun, Feb 15 211 @Valparaiso L 71-72 46%    
  Wed, Feb 18 93 Northern Iowa L 64-68 35%    
  Sat, Feb 21 87 @Belmont L 74-85 17%    
  Wed, Feb 25 129 @Southern Illinois L 73-79 28%    
  Sun, Mar 1 192 Illinois-Chicago W 77-73 62%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.1 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 2.8 3.2 0.9 0.1 7.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.0 3.8 1.5 0.2 10.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 5.0 5.5 1.7 0.1 13.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.1 5.9 2.1 0.1 0.0 16.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 3.4 5.7 4.6 1.6 0.1 16.3 9th
10th 0.2 1.2 3.6 4.9 3.3 0.9 0.0 14.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.4 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 8.3 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.7 6.7 9.7 11.7 13.3 13.7 12.5 9.0 7.2 4.7 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 85.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 81.8% 0.2    0.2 0.1
15-5 52.1% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 18.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.1% 7.4% 7.4% 12.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.3% 17.0% 17.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.6% 14.6% 14.6% 12.3 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-6 1.6% 11.4% 11.4% 12.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4
13-7 2.9% 9.2% 9.2% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.6
12-8 4.7% 5.2% 5.2% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.4
11-9 7.2% 4.7% 4.7% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.9
10-10 9.0% 1.7% 1.7% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.9
9-11 12.5% 1.5% 1.5% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.3
8-12 13.7% 1.1% 1.1% 15.2 0.1 0.0 13.5
7-13 13.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 13.2
6-14 11.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.7
5-15 9.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.7
4-16 6.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.7
3-17 3.7% 3.7
2-18 1.7% 1.7
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 13.8 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 98.2 0.0%