Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#270
Expected Predictive Rating-14.6#345
Pace63.1#333
Improvement-2.0#310

Offense
Total Offense-5.7#327
First Shot-7.5#354
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#73
Layup/Dunks-1.2#231
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#355
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#243
Freethrows-0.7#227
Improvement-0.9#257

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#170
First Shot-2.3#253
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#37
Layups/Dunks+0.2#159
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#123
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#190
Freethrows-3.3#343
Improvement-1.0#262
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.6% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 3.1% 8.6% 2.2%
.500 or above in Conference 16.4% 25.7% 14.9%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.3% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 29.1% 19.8% 30.5%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Round0.8% 1.5% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Away) - 13.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 33 - 103 - 14
Quad 45 - 78 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 14 241 Coastal Carolina W 74-67 57%     1 - 0 -0.7 +2.8 -3.2
  Wed, Nov 19 186 South Alabama L 65-71 46%     1 - 1 -10.8 -5.9 -5.2
  Mon, Nov 24 141 @Arkansas St. L 63-74 17%     1 - 2 -6.8 -11.1 +4.8
  Wed, Nov 26 148 North Dakota St. L 43-56 26%     1 - 3 -12.1 -23.5 +9.7
  Mon, Dec 1 214 North Alabama L 66-73 52%     1 - 4 -13.4 -5.4 -8.4
  Sat, Dec 13 337 @Georgia St. L 73-77 58%     1 - 5 -11.8 +3.0 -15.1
  Wed, Dec 17 243 Eastern Kentucky L 59-62 58%     1 - 6 -10.8 -12.7 +1.6
  Sat, Dec 20 124 @East Tennessee St. L 61-73 14%    
  Mon, Dec 29 147 Western Kentucky L 69-73 36%    
  Fri, Jan 2 284 @Delaware L 64-66 42%    
  Sun, Jan 4 107 @Liberty L 60-73 12%    
  Wed, Jan 7 187 Florida International L 70-71 46%    
  Sat, Jan 10 155 @Kennesaw St. L 69-78 20%    
  Wed, Jan 14 117 Sam Houston St. L 68-74 29%    
  Sat, Jan 17 189 Louisiana Tech L 60-61 47%    
  Sat, Jan 24 160 Middle Tennessee L 65-68 40%    
  Wed, Jan 28 187 @Florida International L 67-74 26%    
  Sat, Jan 31 263 @Missouri St. L 61-64 38%    
  Thu, Feb 5 147 @Western Kentucky L 66-76 19%    
  Sat, Feb 7 155 Kennesaw St. L 72-75 38%    
  Wed, Feb 11 216 UTEP W 63-62 53%    
  Sat, Feb 14 135 New Mexico St. L 63-67 34%    
  Wed, Feb 18 189 @Louisiana Tech L 57-64 27%    
  Sat, Feb 21 117 @Sam Houston St. L 65-77 14%    
  Thu, Feb 26 284 Delaware W 67-63 63%    
  Sat, Feb 28 107 Liberty L 63-70 28%    
  Thu, Mar 5 135 @New Mexico St. L 60-70 18%    
  Sat, Mar 7 216 @UTEP L 60-65 32%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.7 0.5 0.0 4.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.7 0.8 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.2 1.8 3.4 1.6 0.1 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.4 2.8 0.3 0.0 9.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.2 3.7 0.6 0.0 12.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.5 6.3 4.4 1.0 0.0 15.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.8 6.6 4.3 1.0 0.1 18.7 11th
12th 0.5 1.7 3.8 5.5 5.0 2.6 0.6 0.1 19.7 12th
Total 0.5 1.8 4.1 7.2 10.5 12.9 13.6 12.8 11.3 8.9 6.5 4.3 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 89.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 52.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 22.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.1% 0.1
16-4 0.1% 21.6% 21.6% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.4% 11.8% 11.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-6 0.7% 12.3% 12.3% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
13-7 1.6% 7.7% 7.7% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.4
12-8 2.8% 4.8% 4.8% 15.4 0.1 0.1 2.7
11-9 4.3% 4.0% 4.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 4.1
10-10 6.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.3
9-11 8.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 8.8
8-12 11.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.2
7-13 12.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.8
6-14 13.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.6
5-15 12.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.9
4-16 10.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.5
3-17 7.2% 7.2
2-18 4.1% 4.1
1-19 1.8% 1.8
0-20 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%