IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.2	#153
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.1	#312
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.1	#203

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.3	#126

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	8.2%	9.2%	3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	12.6	12.5	13.3

.500 or above	59.9%	65.4%	36.2%
.500 or above in Conference	58.1%	62.0%	41.3%
Conference Champion	9.1%	10.3%	3.9%
Last Place in Conference	7.7%	6.3%	14.0%

First Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
First Round	8.2%	9.2%	3.8%
Second Round	1.1%	1.3%	0.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Coastal Carolina (Home) - 81.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 4
Quad 3	6 - 7	7 - 11
Quad 4	9 - 3	16 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 14, 2025	275	Coastal Carolina	W	69-60	81%
Nov 19, 2025	163	South Alabama	W	64-60	64%
Nov 24, 2025	140	@ Arkansas St.	L	67-71	36%
Nov 26, 2025	208	North Dakota St.	W	68-65	61%
Dec 01, 2025	195	North Alabama	W	69-64	68%
Dec 13, 2025	284	@ Georgia St.	W	72-68	64%
Dec 17, 2025	174	Eastern Kentucky	W	71-67	65%
Dec 20, 2025	152	@ East Tennessee St.	L	63-66	40%
Dec 29, 2025	156	Western Kentucky	W	73-70	62%
Jan 02, 2026	242	@ Delaware	W	73-71	56%
Jan 04, 2026	97	@ Liberty	L	61-69	25%
Jan 07, 2026	210	Florida International	W	70-64	70%
Jan 10, 2026	142	@ Kennesaw St.	L	69-73	38%
Jan 14, 2026	194	Sam Houston St.	W	70-65	67%
Jan 17, 2026	143	Louisiana Tech	W	64-62	58%
Jan 24, 2026	147	Middle Tennessee	W	69-66	59%
Jan 28, 2026	210	@ Florida International	W	68-67	50%
Jan 31, 2026	162	@ Missouri St.	L	61-63	43%
Feb 05, 2026	156	@ Western Kentucky	L	70-73	41%
Feb 07, 2026	142	Kennesaw St.	W	72-70	58%
Feb 11, 2026	157	UTEP	W	68-65	61%
Feb 14, 2026	138	New Mexico St.	W	64-62	56%
Feb 18, 2026	143	@ Louisiana Tech	L	61-65	39%
Feb 21, 2026	194	@ Sam Houston St.	L	67-68	48%
Feb 26, 2026	242	Delaware	W	76-68	73%
Feb 28, 2026	97	Liberty	L	64-66	43%
Mar 05, 2026	138	@ New Mexico St.	L	61-65	36%
Mar 07, 2026	157	@ UTEP	L	65-68	41%
Projected Record						15 - 13	10 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Conference USA Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.2	0.9	1.9	2.3	1.9	1.2	0.5	0.1		9.1	1st
2nd												0.0	0.5	1.9	3.1	2.5	1.2	0.3	0.0				9.6	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.0	0.5	2.3	3.8	2.4	0.8	0.1						10.0	3rd
4th										0.0	0.4	2.6	4.1	2.0	0.5	0.0							9.5	4th
5th									0.0	0.4	2.4	4.3	2.2	0.3	0.0								9.6	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	2.2	4.4	2.5	0.4	0.0									9.7	6th
7th							0.0	0.1	1.7	3.9	2.4	0.4	0.0										8.5	7th
8th						0.0	0.2	1.5	3.6	2.4	0.5	0.0											8.2	8th
9th					0.0	0.2	1.4	3.2	2.3	0.5	0.0												7.7	9th
10th				0.0	0.3	1.3	2.7	2.2	0.5	0.0													7.1	10th
11th		0.0	0.1	0.5	1.4	2.1	1.5	0.4	0.0														6.1	11th
12th	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.4	1.3	0.8	0.2	0.0															4.9	12th

Total	0.1	0.3	0.9	2.0	3.0	4.5	6.0	7.4	8.4	9.4	10.2	10.3	9.4	8.3	7.0	5.2	3.7	2.2	1.2	0.5	0.1			Total

Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
19-1	100.0%	0.5		0.5	0.0
18-2	97.0%	1.2		1.1	0.1
17-3	85.1%	1.9		1.5	0.4	0.0
16-4	63.6%	2.3		1.5	0.7	0.1	0.0
15-5	36.3%	1.9		0.8	0.8	0.2	0.0
14-6	13.5%	0.9		0.3	0.4	0.2	0.1
13-7	2.7%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.2%	0.0					0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	9.1%	9.1		5.8	2.5	0.6	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.1%		69.4%	49.9%	19.5%	9.0						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		39.0%
19-1	0.5%		50.1%	44.6%	5.5%	10.2							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0					0.3		10.0%
18-2	1.2%		42.8%	40.4%	2.4%	11.0								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0				0.7		4.0%
17-3	2.2%		35.8%	35.4%	0.4%	11.5											0.0	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.0			1.4		0.6%
16-4	3.7%		28.8%	28.8%		11.9												0.3	0.6	0.2	0.0			2.6
15-5	5.2%		21.1%	21.1%		12.3												0.2	0.5	0.4	0.1			4.1
14-6	7.0%		17.1%	17.1%		12.6												0.1	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0		5.8
13-7	8.3%		12.3%	12.3%		13.0												0.0	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0	7.3
12-8	9.4%		9.3%	9.3%		13.2												0.0	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.0	0.0	8.6
11-9	10.3%		6.0%	6.0%		13.8													0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	9.7
10-10	10.2%		3.5%	3.5%		14.2													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	9.8
9-11	9.4%		1.7%	1.7%		16.4														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	9.2
8-12	8.4%		1.2%	1.2%		17.0														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8.3
7-13	7.4%		0.4%	0.4%		15.4															0.0	0.0	0.0	7.4
6-14	6.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	6.0
5-15	4.5%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	4.4
4-16	3.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.0
3-17	2.0%																							2.0
2-18	0.9%																							0.9
1-19	0.3%																							0.3
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		8.2%	8.1%	0.1%	12.6						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	1.3	2.6	2.2	1.2	0.4	0.2	91.8		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	5.5					50.3	49.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	51.2%	6.1						50.0				1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	66.7%	10.0										66.7
Lose Out	0.0%