Le Moyne
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.7 #294
Expected Predictive Rating -7.1 #280
Pace 70.9 #125
Improvement -0.2 #192

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #282 C D+ D C+ B-
Defense #282 C C- D+ C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #159 1.13 #207 -0.1 #179
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #275 0.69 #289 -2.1 #288
Three Pointers 44% #113 1.00 #212 +1.3 #129
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #199 -0.9 #199
Freethrows 0.33 #93 72% #204 0.24 #111
Second Chance 25.9% #308 1.04 #156 0.27 #272
Turnovers 19.5% #322
Total Offense -4.1 #282

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #168 1.07 #76 +1.3 #129
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #277 0.61 #10 +2.4 #21
Three Pointers 43% #103 1.13 #329 -3.7 #322
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #179 +0.1 #177
Freethrows 0.32 #229 75% #302 0.24 #259
Second Chance 32.8% #281 1.05 #220 0.35 #260
Turnovers 14.8% #308
Total Defense -3.6 #282

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #107 0.9% #250
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.0% #224 -1.1% #167
Possession Length 17.0 #143 16.8 #103
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #200 0.20 #273
Improvement -4.7 #354 +4.5 #14

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 62.3% 78.0% 46.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.9% 98.1%
Conference Champion 4.8% 7.6% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wagner (Away) - 49.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 414 - 815 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 84 @Xavier L 69 - 74 6% -4  0 - 1 +5 +2 A+ F F +2 C- A- B+
 Sun, Nov 9 151 @Bowling Green L 60 - 83 15% -6  0 - 2 -20 -10 D+ D+ F -9 C- A+ F
 Thu, Nov 13 172 @Massachusetts L 80 - 94 18% -11  0 - 3 -12 +2 C- C- A- -13 F D+ C-
 Mon, Nov 17 348 Niagara W 74 - 68 76% +4  1 - 3 -9 -2 C+ F F+ -7 D C+ D
 Sat, Nov 22 272 Fairfield L 83 - 97 56% -12  1 - 4 -23 +4 D A+ F -27 F F+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 309 @Lafayette W 76 - 63 43% +1  2 - 4 +7 +2 D+ A+ D- +5 B+ C+ B
 Sat, Nov 29 207 Monmouth W 83 - 79 32% +1  3 - 4 +1 +13 A C+ C- -12 A- F F
 Sun, Nov 30 296 Ball St. L 85 - 96 51% -0  3 - 5 -19 +13 A+ F A -32 D+ F C-
 Sat, Dec 6 361 @Binghamton W 78 - 63 70% +10  4 - 5 +2 +4 B D+ D -1 B C- F+
 Tue, Dec 16 31 @Texas L 53 - 95 2% -18  4 - 6 -24 -18 F C- D+ -4 C+ F+ B
 Sat, Dec 20 142 @St. Bonaventure L 81 - 92 13% -2  4 - 7 -7 +11 C- A B- -18 D- F+ F
 Sun, Dec 28 127 @Boston College L 64 - 72 12% -2  4 - 8 -3 -5 C D F +2 D+ A C-
 Fri, Jan 2 357 @St. Francis (PA) W 84 - 58 64% +9  5 - 8 1 - 0 +14 +9 A- B+ D +6 B A D-
 Sun, Jan 4 301 @Mercyhurst L 60 - 74 40% -8  5 - 9 1 - 1 -19 -7 F C C -13 C- F D-
 Thu, Jan 8 334 New Haven W 73 - 47 72% +16  6 - 9 2 - 1 +12 +6 B C A- +10 A B- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 298 Central Connecticut St. L 59 - 69 63% -6  6 - 10 2 - 2 -21 -21 F D F +0 A- C- C
 Sat, Jan 17 355 @Chicago St. W 72 - 57 64% -0  7 - 10 3 - 2 +4 -5 D C C- +9 D+ A+ B+
 Mon, Jan 19 195 LIU Brooklyn W 83 - 77 41% +4  8 - 10 4 - 2 +1 +7 A+ F C- -6 A- F F+
 Fri, Jan 23 332 Wagner W 69 - 67 71% -2  9 - 10 5 - 2 -12 -1 F A- C+ -10 F B- C+
 Mon, Jan 26 344 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 87 - 74 54% +13  10 - 10 6 - 2 +4 +14 A+ F D+ -9 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 29 195 @LIU Brooklyn L 61 - 83 21% -11  10 - 11 6 - 3 -21 -15 F F D -5 D+ B C-
 Sat, Jan 31 329 Stonehill L 54 - 65 71% -5  10 - 12 6 - 4 -24 -21 F F F -3 C+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 332 @Wagner L 72 - 73 49%
 Sat, Feb 7 357 St. Francis (PA) W 81 - 71 82%
 Thu, Feb 12 301 Mercyhurst W 70 - 67 63%
 Sat, Feb 14 355 Chicago St. W 80 - 70 81%
 Thu, Feb 19 298 @Central Connecticut St. L 72 - 75 40%
 Sat, Feb 21 329 @Stonehill L 67 - 68 49%
 Thu, Feb 26 344 Fairleigh Dickinson W 77 - 70 74%
 Sat, Feb 28 334 @New Haven W 69 - 68 51%
Totals 15 - 15 11 - 7 -8 -4 C D+ D -4 C C- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.1 1.1 4.8 1st
2nd 0.0 3.0 16.9 19.4 8.4 1.2 49.0 2nd
3rd 1.1 10.1 9.3 1.3 21.8 3rd
4th 0.2 4.1 7.2 1.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.8 1.2 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 1.2 3.2 6th
7th 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.9 11.3 21.6 27.4 22.1 10.5 2.3 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 49.1% 1.1    0.5 0.7
13-3 19.5% 2.1    0.6 1.4 0.1
12-4 6.3% 1.4    0.1 0.8 0.4 0.0
11-5 0.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 4.8% 4.8 1.2 2.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 2.3% 2.3
13-3 10.5% 10.5
12-4 22.1% 22.1
11-5 27.4% 27.4
10-6 21.6% 21.6
9-7 11.3% 11.3
8-8 3.9% 3.9
7-9 0.9% 0.9
6-10 0.1% 0.1
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.3%