Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.3 #218
Expected Predictive Rating -2.3 #199
Pace 60.6 #357
Improvement +2.0 #101

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #284 D- C- C- D C
Defense #135 B- D C C- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #69 0.98 #352 -1.4 #234
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #111 0.77 #155 +1.6 #92
Three Pointers 33% #329 0.85 #350 -6.7 #347
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #351 -6.5 #348
Freethrows 0.28 #263 65% #357 0.18 #321
Second Chance 34.0% #87 0.86 #350 0.29 #226
Turnovers 17.9% #239
Total Offense -4.4 #284

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #250 1.02 #34 +3.8 #59
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #334 0.72 #123 +2.3 #25
Three Pointers 49% #16 0.95 #87 -2.4 #288
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #63 +3.7 #64
Freethrows 0.33 #266 73% #215 0.24 #262
Second Chance 33.6% #300 1.09 #284 0.37 #307
Turnovers 17.0% #175
Total Defense +1.1 #135

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.2% #210 1.1% #273
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -12.8% #350 -8.3% #43
Possession Length 18.7 #318 18.0 #298
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #239 0.13 #54
Improvement +3.6 #24 -1.7 #278

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.5% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 33.2% 45.5% 20.1%
.500 or above in Conference 41.5% 55.7% 26.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 0.4% 3.5%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round1.9% 2.4% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Home) - 51.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 93 - 13
Quad 411 - 314 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 70 @Nevada L 50 - 77 10% -16  0 - 1 -16 -13 F D D- -6 B F B
 Sat, Nov 15 338 Jackson St. W 68 - 51 85% +3  1 - 1 +3 -11 F D+ D +14 A+ D+ C+
 Wed, Nov 19 199 @Indiana St. L 51 - 60 36% -5  1 - 2 -9 -22 F D- D+ +14 A+ B+ D+
 Wed, Nov 26 199 Indiana St. W 75 - 73 59% +1  2 - 2 -4 +3 C A+ F -6 D+ B D-
 Sat, Nov 29 352 Alcorn St. W 83 - 58 88% +10  3 - 2 +9 +12 C- A A+ -0 B- C+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 260 @Georgia Southern L 69 - 77 47% -4  3 - 3 -11 -3 B- F B -8 F+ D- C+
 Sat, Dec 13 302 Louisiana W 65 - 44 77% +11  4 - 3 +10 -1 D- B+ F +14 B+ A A+
 Wed, Dec 17 171 @Tulane L 53 - 61 30% -6  4 - 4 -6 -9 F F F +2 A+ F D-
 Mon, Dec 29 258 UTEP W 75 - 63 69% +11  5 - 4 1 - 0 +4 +6 B+ F A -2 A F A
 Fri, Jan 2 155 @Middle Tennessee L 51 - 88 27% -19  5 - 5 1 - 1 -34 -9 D D F -33 F B F+
 Sun, Jan 4 157 @Western Kentucky L 61 - 66 28% -7  5 - 6 1 - 2 -2 -4 F B- A- +1 A D- C
 Thu, Jan 8 89 Liberty L 56 - 72 27% -8  5 - 7 1 - 3 -13 -10 D F A+ -6 A F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 288 Delaware W 70 - 68 OT 75% -5  6 - 7 2 - 3 -8 -3 F C+ C- -5 C F C-
 Wed, Jan 14 155 Middle Tennessee W 59 - 58 49% -10  7 - 7 3 - 3 -2 -9 F F+ A +7 A+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 17 192 @Jacksonville St. L 60 - 64 34% -10  7 - 8 3 - 4 -3 +1 D- B C -5 C D+ C+
 Fri, Jan 23 143 Kennesaw St. W 82 - 76 45% -2  8 - 8 4 - 4 +4 +13 A+ A C -9 C+ D F+
 Wed, Jan 28 258 @UTEP W 69 - 59 47% +6  9 - 8 5 - 4 +8 +2 C- C F +6 A B- C
 Sat, Jan 31 109 @Sam Houston St. L 67 - 83 18% -6  9 - 9 5 - 5 -9 +2 F A+ C -12 C+ F F
 Wed, Feb 4 167 New Mexico St. W 67 - 66 51%
 Sat, Feb 7 109 Sam Houston St. L 68 - 72 36%
 Thu, Feb 12 183 @Missouri St. L 62 - 67 32%
 Sat, Feb 14 188 @Florida International L 69 - 73 35%
 Wed, Feb 18 192 Jacksonville St. W 64 - 62 58%
 Sat, Feb 21 143 @Kennesaw St. L 68 - 75 25%
 Thu, Feb 26 183 Missouri St. W 65 - 64 55%
 Sat, Feb 28 188 Florida International W 72 - 70 57%
 Thu, Mar 5 89 @Liberty L 60 - 72 13%
 Sat, Mar 7 288 @Delaware W 63 - 62 54%
Totals 13 - 15 9 - 11 -3 -4 D- C- C- +1 B- D C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 3.3 0.8 0.1 6.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 5.0 1.8 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.4 6.1 4.0 0.2 10.7 5th
6th 0.1 3.8 8.4 1.0 0.0 13.4 6th
7th 2.2 10.0 3.9 0.1 16.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 9.6 7.0 0.6 18.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 5.2 6.6 0.8 13.0 9th
10th 0.2 2.1 4.3 1.3 0.0 7.9 10th
11th 0.5 1.4 0.8 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 12th
Total 0.9 4.1 11.7 19.9 21.9 20.4 12.2 6.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 25.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 9.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.4% 11.6% 11.6% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-7 2.1% 6.3% 6.3% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.9
12-8 6.4% 5.6% 5.6% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.0
11-9 12.2% 4.8% 4.8% 14.8 0.2 0.4 0.1 11.6
10-10 20.4% 2.1% 2.1% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 20.0
9-11 21.9% 1.1% 1.1% 15.6 0.1 0.2 21.7
8-12 19.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 19.8
7-13 11.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 11.6
6-14 4.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.1
5-15 0.9% 0.9
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.0 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%