IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.8	#143
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	62.5	#325
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.8	#191

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.7	#119

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	9.2%	13.6%	7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%
Average Seed	12.6	12.0	12.8

.500 or above	63.3%	81.9%	57.3%
.500 or above in Conference	62.3%	75.5%	58.0%
Conference Champion	11.3%	17.3%	9.4%
Last Place in Conference	6.1%	2.9%	7.2%

First Four	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%
First Round	9.1%	13.5%	7.8%
Second Round	1.2%	2.4%	0.8%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Nevada (Away) - 24.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 4
Quad 3	6 - 6	7 - 11
Quad 4	9 - 3	16 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2025	98	@ Nevada	L	59-66	24%
Nov 15, 2025	238	Jackson St.	W	71-63	77%
Nov 19, 2025	170	@ Indiana St.	L	73-74	46%
Nov 26, 2025	170	Indiana St.	W	76-71	67%
Nov 29, 2025	326	Alcorn St.	W	70-56	89%
Dec 03, 2025	249	@ Georgia Southern	W	71-68	59%
Dec 13, 2025	234	Louisiana	W	69-61	75%
Dec 17, 2025	116	@ Tulane	L	65-70	32%
Dec 29, 2025	157	UTEP	W	68-64	63%
Jan 02, 2026	147	@ Middle Tennessee	L	66-69	41%
Jan 04, 2026	156	@ Western Kentucky	L	70-72	43%
Jan 08, 2026	97	Liberty	L	64-65	45%
Jan 10, 2026	242	Delaware	W	75-67	75%
Jan 14, 2026	147	Middle Tennessee	W	69-66	62%
Jan 17, 2026	153	@ Jacksonville St.	L	62-64	42%
Jan 24, 2026	142	Kennesaw St.	W	72-69	60%
Jan 28, 2026	157	@ UTEP	L	65-67	43%
Jan 31, 2026	194	@ Sam Houston St.	L	67-68	49%
Feb 04, 2026	138	New Mexico St.	W	64-62	58%
Feb 07, 2026	194	Sam Houston St.	W	70-64	69%
Feb 12, 2026	162	@ Missouri St.	L	61-63	44%
Feb 14, 2026	210	@ Florida International	W	67-66	53%
Feb 18, 2026	153	Jacksonville St.	W	65-61	61%
Feb 21, 2026	142	@ Kennesaw St.	L	69-72	40%
Feb 26, 2026	162	Missouri St.	W	64-60	64%
Feb 28, 2026	210	Florida International	W	70-63	71%
Mar 05, 2026	97	@ Liberty	L	61-68	28%
Mar 07, 2026	242	@ Delaware	W	72-70	57%
Projected Record						15 - 13	11 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Conference USA Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.3	1.0	2.3	3.0	2.5	1.5	0.6	0.1		11.3	1st
2nd												0.0	0.5	2.1	3.7	3.0	1.6	0.4	0.0	0.0			11.5	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.0	0.5	2.5	4.0	2.7	0.8	0.1						10.7	3rd
4th										0.0	0.4	2.6	4.1	2.4	0.5	0.1							10.1	4th
5th										0.3	2.3	4.1	2.2	0.3	0.0								9.3	5th
6th								0.0	0.2	2.1	4.1	2.3	0.3	0.0									9.1	6th
7th							0.0	0.2	1.4	4.0	2.2	0.3	0.0										8.2	7th
8th						0.0	0.2	1.4	3.5	2.5	0.4	0.0											8.0	8th
9th						0.2	1.3	2.7	2.4	0.4	0.0												7.1	9th
10th				0.0	0.3	1.0	2.4	1.8	0.5	0.0													6.0	10th
11th		0.0	0.0	0.4	1.1	1.8	1.3	0.4	0.0														5.0	11th
12th	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.1	1.0	0.5	0.2	0.0															3.8	12th

Total	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.5	2.5	3.6	5.3	6.5	8.1	9.4	9.6	9.9	9.6	9.2	7.9	6.2	4.7	2.9	1.5	0.6	0.1			Total

Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
19-1	98.7%	0.6		0.6	0.0
18-2	97.6%	1.5		1.4	0.1
17-3	85.8%	2.5		2.0	0.5	0.0
16-4	63.6%	3.0		2.0	0.9	0.1	0.0
15-5	36.5%	2.3		1.0	1.0	0.3	0.0
14-6	12.9%	1.0		0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-7	2.8%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.2%	0.0			0.0		0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	11.3%	11.3		7.3	3.1	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.1%		71.6%	53.6%	18.0%	8.6				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		38.8%
19-1	0.6%		62.5%	56.1%	6.4%	10.4						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1					0.2		14.6%
18-2	1.5%		43.3%	41.2%	2.1%	11.2									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0			0.9		3.6%
17-3	2.9%		35.2%	35.1%	0.1%	11.6											0.0	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.0			1.9		0.2%
16-4	4.7%		27.2%	27.1%	0.1%	12.0											0.0	0.3	0.7	0.2	0.0			3.4		0.1%
15-5	6.2%		20.9%	20.8%	0.1%	12.4												0.1	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0		4.9		0.1%
14-6	7.9%		16.5%	16.5%		12.7												0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.0		6.6
13-7	9.2%		11.7%	11.7%		13.0												0.0	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.0		8.1
12-8	9.6%		8.3%	8.3%		13.5												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	8.8
11-9	9.9%		5.2%	5.2%		13.9													0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	9.4
10-10	9.6%		3.2%	3.2%		15.0													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	9.3
9-11	9.4%		2.4%	2.4%		15.6														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	9.2
8-12	8.1%		1.6%	1.6%		17.8															0.0	0.1	0.1	7.9
7-13	6.5%		0.6%	0.6%		17.5																0.0	0.0	6.5
6-14	5.3%		0.4%	0.4%		19.2																	0.0	5.3
5-15	3.6%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	3.6
4-16	2.5%																							2.5
3-17	1.5%																							1.5
2-18	0.6%																							0.6
1-19	0.2%																							0.2
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		9.2%	9.1%	0.1%	12.6				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	1.5	3.1	2.4	1.1	0.5	0.2	90.8		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	5.0			24.8	24.2	24.8	1.2		24.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	9.0									97.6		2.4
Lose Out	0.0%