Loyola Maryland
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.6 #318
Expected Predictive Rating -12.2 #342
Pace 69.8 #155
Improvement +3.2 #52

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #271 C- C- D+ D+ B-
Defense #336 D D- D C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #247 1.10 #249 -2.4 #264
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #318 0.72 #234 -3.1 #325
Three Pointers 50% #21 0.94 #284 +2.8 #85
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #253 -2.6 #255
Freethrows 0.27 #292 70% #251 0.19 #299
Second Chance 28.5% #246 1.01 #198 0.29 #235
Turnovers 18.5% #279
Total Offense -3.7 #271

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #104 1.32 #346 -5.3 #344
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #122 0.88 #337 -2.2 #331
Three Pointers 36% #311 1.01 #169 +2.6 #80
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #315 -4.9 #325
Freethrows 0.29 #149 75% #322 0.22 #161
Second Chance 32.1% #242 1.26 #364 0.40 #346
Turnovers 14.7% #312
Total Defense -5.9 #336

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #78 0.1% #175
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.3% #290 8.8% #327
Possession Length 17.9 #244 16.6 #63
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #304 0.21 #309
Improvement +0.5 #147 +2.7 #44

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.3% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 23.2% 34.2% 9.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.9% 10.9% 28.6%
First Four2.7% 3.3% 2.0%
First Round1.4% 1.7% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lehigh (Home) - 55.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 50 - 7
Quad 410 - 1310 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 154 Towson L 56 - 67 18% -4  0 - 1 -11 -11 F+ F C -1 C- C D+
 Tue, Nov 11 323 NJIT L 64 - 66 63% +1  0 - 2 -15 -12 F+ B- F -4 B- F C
 Sat, Nov 15 329 Stonehill W 74 - 63 53% +3  1 - 2 +1 +7 B+ C+ C+ -5 F C A-
 Sun, Nov 16 272 @Fairfield L 82 - 85 27% -4  1 - 3 -6 +5 A- F D- -11 C- F F
 Wed, Nov 19 113 @Duquesne L 78 - 92 8% -12  1 - 4 -8 +3 B C- C+ -10 D F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 26 @Kentucky L 46 - 88 1% -26  1 - 5 -23 -19 F C- F -3 C C+ D+
 Sun, Nov 30 364 Coppin St. W 95 - 84 90% +7  2 - 5 -13 +10 A A F -23 F C F
 Wed, Dec 3 252 @Hampton L 71 - 93 24% -15  2 - 6 -24 -4 F A+ F -19 F A- D
 Tue, Dec 9 356 @VMI L 70 - 86 57% -15  2 - 7 -27 -2 F+ C+ C- -27 F F F
 Sat, Dec 13 290 Mount St. Mary's L 73 - 81 53% -5  2 - 8 -18 -7 B- F D+ -11 F F B
 Sun, Dec 21 82 @George Mason L 79 - 86 5% +1  2 - 9 +3 +14 C+ A+ B- -12 B F F
 Wed, Dec 31 245 @American L 69 - 84 23% -10  2 - 10 0 - 1 -17 -0 B- D- F -17 F D+ F+
 Sat, Jan 3 309 Lafayette L 64 - 79 59% -15  2 - 11 0 - 2 -27 -9 D- F C+ -19 F+ F F+
 Wed, Jan 7 336 @Army W 84 - 76 OT 45% +3  3 - 11 1 - 2 -0 +2 D- C+ C- -3 B D- F
 Sat, Jan 10 315 @Bucknell L 67 - 70 38% -1  3 - 12 1 - 3 -9 -6 C F F -3 C F C
 Wed, Jan 14 221 Colgate L 80 - 86 38% -3  3 - 13 1 - 4 -12 +0 C- D- A+ -13 C D- F+
 Sat, Jan 17 286 Boston University W 74 - 57 52% +1  4 - 13 2 - 4 +7 -8 F A+ C+ +15 A+ A- A
 Mon, Jan 19 300 @Lehigh L 81 - 88 33% +2  4 - 14 2 - 5 -12 +9 A- D- A+ -22 F D- F
 Sat, Jan 24 315 Bucknell W 67 - 62 61% +2  5 - 14 3 - 5 -7 -4 F+ C+ F -3 B F F
 Wed, Jan 28 245 American W 77 - 68 43% +8  6 - 14 4 - 5 +1 -3 F B B +3 C A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 180 @Navy L 71 - 87 15% -8  6 - 15 4 - 6 -14 +7 B- D+ C- -22 F F D
 Wed, Feb 4 300 Lehigh W 75 - 73 55%
 Sat, Feb 7 286 @Boston University L 71 - 77 30%
 Wed, Feb 11 309 @Lafayette L 72 - 76 36%
 Sun, Feb 15 326 Holy Cross W 75 - 71 62%
 Wed, Feb 18 336 Army W 79 - 74 66%
 Sat, Feb 21 221 @Colgate L 72 - 81 20%
 Wed, Feb 25 180 Navy L 69 - 74 32%
 Sat, Feb 28 326 @Holy Cross L 72 - 74 41%
Totals 9 - 20 7 - 11 -10 -4 C- C- D+ -6 D D- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.8 2.2 0.9 0.1 3.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 7.3 3.5 0.3 12.4 4th
5th 0.9 9.6 5.8 0.5 0.0 16.8 5th
6th 0.1 6.3 9.7 0.8 16.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 12.0 2.8 0.0 16.7 7th
8th 0.3 7.9 5.8 0.1 14.1 8th
9th 0.0 2.8 7.3 0.6 10.8 9th
10th 1.2 4.8 1.4 0.0 7.4 10th
Total 1.2 8.0 18.5 25.7 23.5 14.7 6.5 1.7 0.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 30.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.2% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 1.7% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.2 1.5
10-8 6.5% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.5 6.1
9-9 14.7% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.6 14.2
8-10 23.5% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.9 22.6
7-11 25.7% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.4 25.3
6-12 18.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 18.3
5-13 8.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 7.9
4-14 1.2% 1.2
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 16.0 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%