Minnesota
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.5 #76
Expected Predictive Rating +6.7 #84
Pace 60.2 #360
Improvement +5.8 #6

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #93 B- C C+ B B-
Defense #71 B A+ B- B- A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #134 1.29 #66 +3.4 #72
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #260 0.77 #154 -1.3 #243
Three Pointers 43% #139 0.99 #210 +0.7 #149
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #103 +2.8 #103
Freethrows 20.9 #28 68% #298 14.3 #78
Second Chance 32.1% #135 0.96 #269 0.31 #189
Turnovers 15.9% #134
Total Offense +3.5 #93

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #315 1.13 #142 +3.7 #70
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #44 0.67 #64 -1.0 #259
Three Pointers 41% #191 0.97 #118 +1.0 #144
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #66 +3.7 #67
Freethrows 15.1 #74 74% #247 11.1 #280
Second Chance 26.5% #51 0.78 #4 0.21 #8
Turnovers 18.1% #87
Total Defense +4.1 #71

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #104 -2.2% #34
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.2% #122 -5.2% #85
Possession Length 18.0 #250 18.9 #355
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #180 0.09 #11
Improvement +3.5 #23 +2.3 #56

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.0% 15.0% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.9% 15.0% 4.2%
Average Seed 10.0 9.7 10.1
.500 or above 34.7% 62.3% 32.7%
.500 or above in Conference 17.3% 40.8% 15.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.1% 1.1%
First Four2.2% 5.8% 2.0%
First Round3.6% 11.7% 3.1%
Second Round1.3% 5.3% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 1.1% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois (Away) - 6.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 10
Quad 23 - 66 - 16
Quad 32 - 18 - 17
Quad 47 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 362 Gardner-Webb W 87 - 60 98% +25  1 - 0 +8 +2 A- D- F +5 A A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 8 347 Alcorn St. W 95 - 50 97% +30  2 - 0 +30 +16 D- A+ C +14 A+ C+ B
 Wed, Nov 12 53 @Missouri L 60 - 83 29% -3  2 - 1 -10 -0 C D C -13 F B F
 Sat, Nov 15 243 Green Bay W 72 - 65 OT 92% +1  3 - 1 -1 -8 D+ F B +8 A+ A- A+
 Tue, Nov 18 349 Chicago St. W 66 - 54 98% +6  4 - 1 -4 -8 F F C+ +5 B B B
 Sat, Nov 22 103 San Francisco L 65 - 77 60% -6  4 - 2 -7 +2 A+ C- F -11 D- B- B-
 Thu, Nov 27 77 Stanford L 68 - 72 51% -1  4 - 3 +3 +6 A+ A+ F -3 A+ F D-
 Fri, Nov 28 55 Santa Clara L 75 - 86 41% -18  4 - 4 -1 +9 C A+ A+ -11 F A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 3 31 Indiana W 73 - 64 36% +1  5 - 4 1 - 0 +20 +8 A- A+ F +13 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 3 @Purdue L 57 - 85 6% -15  5 - 5 1 - 1 -3 -3 D D- B+ -3 C+ D+ C+
 Sun, Dec 14 334 Texas Southern W 89 - 53 97% +20  6 - 5 +22 +12 A+ F C- +11 A- A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 191 Campbell W 78 - 50 87% +18  7 - 5 +23 +14 A+ A+ C- +14 A- A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 351 Fairleigh Dickinson W 60 - 43 98% +7  8 - 5 +1 -12 F C F +15 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 63 @Northwestern W 84 - 78 34% -2  9 - 5 2 - 1 +18 +21 A+ A- C+ -3 C- A+ F
 Tue, Jan 6 22 Iowa W 70 - 67 30% +6  10 - 5 3 - 1 +16 +5 A- F A+ +11 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 9 47 USC L 69 - 70 OT 47% -3  10 - 6 3 - 2 +7 +4 C C+ B- +3 C A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 39 Wisconsin L 75 - 78 40% +1  10 - 7 3 - 3 +7 +13 A+ F A+ -6 C- A+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 8 @Illinois L 62 - 78 7%
 Tue, Jan 20 36 @Ohio St. L 66 - 75 19%
 Sat, Jan 24 16 Nebraska L 65 - 72 26%
 Wed, Jan 28 39 @Wisconsin L 67 - 75 21%
 Sun, Feb 1 99 @Penn St. L 70 - 71 48%
 Wed, Feb 4 13 Michigan St. L 61 - 69 22%
 Sun, Feb 8 112 Maryland W 71 - 64 73%
 Sat, Feb 14 46 @Washington L 66 - 73 26%
 Tue, Feb 17 72 @Oregon L 67 - 70 38%
 Sat, Feb 21 124 Rutgers W 71 - 63 78%
 Tue, Feb 24 1 @Michigan L 63 - 84 3%
 Sat, Feb 28 38 UCLA L 66 - 69 41%
 Wed, Mar 4 31 @Indiana L 66 - 76 19%
 Sat, Mar 7 63 Northwestern W 70 - 68 56%
Totals 15 - 16 8 - 12 +8 +3 B- C C+ +4 B A+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 1.8 0.6 0.0 3.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.9 0.1 4.8 8th
9th 0.2 2.4 3.8 0.7 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.1 1.8 5.5 2.4 0.1 9.8 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 6.5 5.2 0.6 0.0 13.4 11th
12th 0.7 6.3 8.4 2.1 0.1 17.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 5.1 9.9 3.9 0.2 0.0 19.5 13th
14th 0.1 2.0 6.5 3.3 0.3 0.0 12.1 14th
15th 0.5 3.0 2.5 0.2 0.0 6.2 15th
16th 0.0 1.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.1 16th
17th 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 17th
18th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 18th
Total 0.3 2.4 7.2 15.0 20.9 21.1 15.9 9.7 5.1 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 92.3% 92.3% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.3%
13-7 0.6% 86.2% 1.7% 84.5% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 86.0%
12-8 1.7% 64.9% 0.3% 64.6% 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.6 64.8%
11-9 5.1% 35.2% 35.2% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.0 3.3 35.2%
10-10 9.7% 11.9% 0.1% 11.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.0 8.6 11.8%
9-11 15.9% 1.7% 1.7% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 15.6 1.7%
8-12 21.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 21.1 0.0%
7-13 20.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 20.9
6-14 15.0% 15.0
5-15 7.2% 7.2
4-16 2.4% 2.4
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.0% 0.0% 4.9% 10.0 95.0 4.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%