Navy
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#159
Expected Predictive Rating-0.1#171
Pace67.4#248
Improvement+0.7#120

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#182
First Shot+0.5#161
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#241
Layup/Dunks+0.1#172
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#95
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#303
Freethrows+3.1#37
Improvement+1.1#77

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#160
First Shot-0.8#199
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#117
Layups/Dunks+2.8#79
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#347
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#185
Freethrows+0.0#186
Improvement-0.4#234
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.1% 36.3% 29.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.2 14.8
.500 or above 95.1% 98.5% 93.9%
.500 or above in Conference 94.6% 96.9% 93.8%
Conference Champion 44.8% 53.3% 41.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four2.6% 1.3% 3.1%
First Round29.9% 35.7% 27.8%
Second Round1.2% 2.1% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Away) - 26.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 6
Quad 419 - 521 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 275 @Presbyterian W 76-55 61%     1 - 0 +17.8 +9.5 +10.1
  Fri, Nov 7 69 Yale L 68-97 30%     1 - 1 -24.0 -12.1 -9.8
  Tue, Nov 11 100 @Penn St. L 71-80 22%     1 - 2 -1.2 +0.7 -2.1
  Tue, Nov 18 26 @North Carolina L 61-73 6%     1 - 3 +5.1 -3.7 +8.8
  Sat, Nov 22 349 NJIT W 86-70 91%     2 - 3 +1.2 +9.9 -8.4
  Wed, Nov 26 356 Gardner-Webb W 84-51 88%     3 - 3 +20.0 +9.9 +11.7
  Fri, Nov 28 113 @UNC Wilmington L 66-73 27%    
  Sat, Nov 29 250 SE Louisiana W 70-66 67%    
  Wed, Dec 3 357 @Delaware St. W 74-64 82%    
  Sun, Dec 7 323 Air Force W 72-61 85%    
  Fri, Dec 19 364 Coppin St. W 79-59 96%    
  Wed, Dec 31 227 Boston University W 74-67 73%    
  Sat, Jan 3 330 @Holy Cross W 73-67 71%    
  Wed, Jan 7 284 Bucknell W 75-66 80%    
  Sat, Jan 10 327 Lafayette W 77-65 86%    
  Mon, Jan 12 283 @American W 75-72 61%    
  Sat, Jan 17 312 @Lehigh W 73-68 67%    
  Wed, Jan 21 330 Holy Cross W 76-64 87%    
  Sat, Jan 24 346 Army W 79-65 90%    
  Wed, Jan 28 227 @Boston University W 71-70 52%    
  Sat, Jan 31 301 Loyola Maryland W 75-65 82%    
  Wed, Feb 4 327 @Lafayette W 74-68 70%    
  Sat, Feb 7 283 American W 78-69 79%    
  Mon, Feb 9 284 @Bucknell W 72-69 61%    
  Sat, Feb 14 182 @Colgate L 71-73 44%    
  Wed, Feb 18 312 Lehigh W 76-65 82%    
  Sat, Feb 21 346 @Army W 76-68 76%    
  Wed, Feb 25 301 @Loyola Maryland W 72-68 65%    
  Sat, Feb 28 182 Colgate W 74-70 64%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.8 9.9 11.7 9.3 4.8 1.5 44.8 1st
2nd 0.3 2.3 6.5 7.7 4.7 1.7 0.2 23.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 4.9 4.3 1.5 0.3 13.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.6 2.3 0.5 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 2.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.2 3.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 4.9 7.7 9.9 13.0 15.0 14.8 13.4 9.5 4.8 1.5 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
17-1 100.0% 4.8    4.8 0.0
16-2 97.5% 9.3    8.8 0.5
15-3 87.5% 11.7    9.6 2.0 0.1
14-4 66.7% 9.9    6.4 3.1 0.3 0.0
13-5 38.3% 5.8    2.4 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-6 13.1% 1.7    0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 44.8% 44.8 33.8 8.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.5% 67.2% 67.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.5
17-1 4.8% 54.5% 54.5% 13.3 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.2
16-2 9.5% 49.0% 49.0% 13.9 0.1 1.2 2.3 1.0 0.0 4.9
15-3 13.4% 43.3% 43.3% 14.3 0.1 0.8 2.4 2.2 0.3 7.6
14-4 14.8% 35.4% 35.4% 14.7 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.6 0.6 9.6
13-5 15.0% 29.6% 29.6% 15.1 0.0 0.7 2.3 1.4 10.6
12-6 13.0% 25.2% 25.2% 15.4 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.6 9.7
11-7 9.9% 19.9% 19.9% 15.7 0.1 0.6 1.4 7.9
10-8 7.7% 15.5% 15.5% 15.9 0.2 1.0 6.5
9-9 4.9% 12.5% 12.5% 15.9 0.0 0.6 4.3
8-10 2.9% 7.0% 7.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.7
7-11 1.5% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.1 1.5
6-12 0.6% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
5-13 0.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 31.1% 31.1% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.8 8.3 10.5 7.2 68.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.6 3.6 3.6 35.5 47.3 10.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%