New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.7 #167
Expected Predictive Rating -3.7 #224
Pace 64.6 #291
Improvement -6.5 #361

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #139 C- C B- C D-
Defense #237 C+ C- D+ F B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #335 1.14 #193 -4.3 #324
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #37 0.78 #141 +3.6 #33
Three Pointers 39% #217 1.01 #190 -0.9 #216
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #225 -1.6 #224
Freethrows 0.30 #215 73% #173 0.22 #199
Second Chance 32.8% #116 0.93 #300 0.31 #189
Turnovers 15.2% #72
Total Offense +0.9 #139

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #307 1.19 #219 +2.2 #101
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #92 0.67 #42 +0.1 #183
Three Pointers 43% #113 0.99 #143 -0.6 #209
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #123 +1.7 #122
Freethrows 0.39 #353 77% #357 0.30 #360
Second Chance 29.9% #145 1.14 #324 0.34 #251
Turnovers 15.5% #264
Total Defense -1.6 #237

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.1% #338 -1.3% #74
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.1% #172 -2.1% #139
Possession Length 17.9 #249 17.7 #254
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #151 0.19 #246
Improvement -1.9 #295 -4.6 #355

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 4.2% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.6 15.3
.500 or above 15.8% 25.5% 6.7%
.500 or above in Conference 12.1% 20.7% 4.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.3% 4.0% 12.4%
First Four0.8% 0.7% 1.0%
First Round3.2% 4.0% 2.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Away) - 48.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 76 - 10
Quad 47 - 612 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 45 New Mexico W 76 - 68 19% +2  1 - 0 +17 +13 C- A A+ +4 A+ D+ A
 Fri, Nov 21 227 Samford W 81 - 72 72% +10  2 - 0 +2 +13 B+ A- A- -9 B+ F F
 Tue, Nov 25 118 UC Irvine W 57 - 45 36% +5  3 - 0 +15 -9 F B+ F +24 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 269 Georgia St. W 77 - 58 70% +9  4 - 0 +13 -2 D+ D A +13 B+ A- C+
 Tue, Dec 2 196 South Alabama L 75 - 77 57% +1  4 - 1 -4 +7 C C- D+ -11 B- D D-
 Sat, Dec 6 268 @Abilene Christian L 69 - 77 59% -5  4 - 2 -11 +4 D- D B+ -16 F F+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 69 Tulsa L 70 - 83 20% -13  4 - 3 -5 -3 F+ D C+ -2 D+ F+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 109 Sam Houston St. W 87 - 78 45% +13  5 - 3 1 - 0 +10 +9 A D+ A+ +0 A B- D+
 Fri, Jan 2 188 @Florida International L 74 - 89 43% -11  5 - 4 1 - 1 -14 +1 A- F C -15 D F C+
 Sun, Jan 4 183 @Missouri St. L 82 - 89 42% -8  5 - 5 1 - 2 -6 +9 B- C- C+ -14 D+ F C
 Thu, Jan 8 157 Western Kentucky W 80 - 64 59% +16  6 - 5 2 - 2 +13 +12 D+ A+ B- +2 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 155 Middle Tennessee L 55 - 59 59% -0  6 - 6 2 - 3 -7 -14 F+ F+ C- +6 A+ B+ D
 Thu, Jan 15 89 @Liberty L 71 - 73 18% -6  6 - 7 2 - 4 +7 +14 B- B- A+ -8 C- B- D
 Sat, Jan 17 288 @Delaware W 97 - 68 64% +14  7 - 7 3 - 4 +25 +36 A+ A+ A+ -7 C+ D- F
 Thu, Jan 22 183 Missouri St. L 75 - 84 65% -5  7 - 8 3 - 5 -14 +6 F B- A+ -20 F B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 188 Florida International L 78 - 81 66% -4  7 - 9 3 - 6 -8 -3 F D C+ -5 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 288 Delaware L 64 - 73 82% -5  7 - 10 3 - 7 -19 -2 C+ D D+ -19 F B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 143 @Kennesaw St. L 53 - 76 32% -15  7 - 11 3 - 8 -19 -16 F F D -4 C+ F F
 Wed, Feb 4 218 @Louisiana Tech L 66 - 67 49%
 Sat, Feb 7 258 @UTEP W 70 - 68 57%
 Wed, Feb 11 89 Liberty L 70 - 74 36%
 Sat, Feb 14 192 @Jacksonville St. L 68 - 70 44%
 Sat, Feb 21 258 UTEP W 73 - 65 77%
 Thu, Feb 26 157 @Western Kentucky L 72 - 76 37%
 Sat, Feb 28 155 @Middle Tennessee L 68 - 72 38%
 Thu, Mar 5 192 Jacksonville St. W 71 - 67 66%
 Sat, Mar 7 143 Kennesaw St. W 78 - 77 54%
Totals 12 - 15 8 - 12 -1 +1 C- C B- -2 C+ C- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.9 3rd
4th 0.7 1.4 0.1 2.2 4th
5th 0.4 3.4 0.8 4.5 5th
6th 0.1 3.1 3.4 0.1 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.9 7.2 1.2 0.0 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 9.0 5.0 0.1 15.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 10.2 10.3 1.0 23.4 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 6.8 9.1 1.7 18.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 5.0 6.4 2.0 0.1 14.8 11th
12th 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.0 3.0 12th
Total 0.3 2.3 7.5 15.5 22.8 23.0 16.6 8.8 2.8 0.6 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.6% 8.9% 8.9% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-9 2.8% 13.5% 13.5% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.4
10-10 8.8% 5.6% 5.6% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 8.3
9-11 16.6% 4.1% 4.1% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 15.9
8-12 23.0% 3.0% 3.0% 15.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 22.3
7-13 22.8% 2.9% 2.9% 15.9 0.1 0.6 22.1
6-14 15.5% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.4 15.1
5-15 7.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 7.3
4-16 2.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.2
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 14.9 96.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.2%