North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.4#343
Expected Predictive Rating-16.6#353
Pace78.0#22
Improvement-0.1#174

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#261
First Shot-3.0#262
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#222
Layup/Dunks-5.2#333
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#158
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.3#19
Freethrows-5.4#365
Improvement-0.6#235

Defense
Total Defense-7.8#357
First Shot-1.7#236
After Offensive Rebounds-6.0#365
Layups/Dunks-4.9#330
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#141
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#153
Freethrows+1.7#81
Improvement+0.6#141
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 11.5% 17.7% 10.0%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 34.8% 25.9% 37.0%
First Four0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charleston Southern (Away) - 19.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 45 - 116 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 13 @Florida L 64-104 1%     0 - 1 -19.2 -5.6 -8.7
  Wed, Nov 12 15 @Tennessee L 66-99 1%     0 - 2 -12.5 -1.3 -8.5
  Wed, Nov 19 221 @Wofford L 78-86 16%     0 - 3 -8.6 +1.3 -9.6
  Sat, Nov 22 202 Southern Miss L 83-92 20%     0 - 4 -11.7 +6.5 -18.1
  Sun, Nov 23 324 Prairie View L 82-85 44%     0 - 5 -12.8 +1.7 -14.3
  Tue, Dec 2 234 SIU Edwardsville L 63-72 34%     0 - 6 -16.1 -6.4 -10.4
  Sun, Dec 7 5 @Gonzaga L 58-109 0.4%    0 - 7 -26.2 -8.7 -12.7
  Sat, Dec 13 61 @Dayton L 61-84 3%     0 - 8 -11.1 -4.0 -7.5
  Thu, Dec 18 256 @Charleston Southern L 76-85 19%    
  Sun, Dec 21 33 @Miami (FL) L 69-97 1%    
  Sun, Dec 28 133 Columbia L 76-86 17%    
  Thu, Jan 1 191 @Austin Peay L 72-84 13%    
  Sat, Jan 3 142 @Lipscomb L 74-90 8%    
  Thu, Jan 8 313 West Georgia W 81-80 52%    
  Sat, Jan 10 210 Queens L 84-89 31%    
  Thu, Jan 15 214 @North Alabama L 72-83 16%    
  Sat, Jan 17 286 @Central Arkansas L 76-84 24%    
  Thu, Jan 22 243 Eastern Kentucky L 79-83 37%    
  Sat, Jan 24 275 Bellarmine L 80-82 41%    
  Thu, Jan 29 345 Stetson W 81-78 62%    
  Sat, Jan 31 142 Lipscomb L 77-87 19%    
  Thu, Feb 5 313 @West Georgia L 77-83 31%    
  Sat, Feb 7 210 @Queens L 81-92 16%    
  Wed, Feb 11 184 @Florida Gulf Coast L 76-89 13%    
  Sat, Feb 14 309 @Jacksonville L 74-80 30%    
  Thu, Feb 19 191 Austin Peay L 75-81 29%    
  Sat, Feb 21 345 @Stetson L 78-81 41%    
  Thu, Feb 26 184 Florida Gulf Coast L 79-86 28%    
  Sat, Feb 28 309 Jacksonville W 78-77 51%    
Projected Record 6 - 23 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.4 0.2 3.2 5th
6th 0.2 1.5 2.3 0.6 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 3.5 1.2 0.1 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.7 2.7 0.2 0.0 9.7 8th
9th 0.1 2.1 5.4 3.9 0.5 0.0 12.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.7 5.4 1.0 0.0 16.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 4.1 7.5 6.0 1.3 0.1 19.9 11th
12th 0.8 3.2 6.7 7.4 4.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 23.8 12th
Total 0.8 3.2 7.6 11.8 15.0 16.1 14.2 11.3 8.4 5.4 3.4 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 65.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-5 30.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 7.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 34.5% 34.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.8% 3.8% 3.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.8
11-7 1.6% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 1.5
10-8 3.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 3.3
9-9 5.4% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.2 5.2
8-10 8.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 8.4
7-11 11.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.3
6-12 14.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.2
5-13 16.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.1
4-14 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.0
3-15 11.8% 11.8
2-16 7.6% 7.6
1-17 3.2% 3.2
0-18 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%