Old Dominion
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.7 #259
Expected Predictive Rating -8.2 #294
Pace 71.3 #112
Improvement -1.8 #261

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #264 D+ D+ C+ C- D
Defense #246 C C D D- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #287 1.11 #247 -3.1 #288
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #75 0.66 #324 +0.8 #126
Three Pointers 39% #218 1.01 #198 -1.1 #224
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #283 -3.4 #285
Freethrows 0.29 #238 72% #177 0.21 #221
Second Chance 24.9% #328 1.04 #154 0.26 #286
Turnovers 16.3% #142
Total Offense -3.6 #264

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #29 1.27 #319 -6.2 #353
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #170 0.70 #73 +0.6 #141
Three Pointers 34% #339 0.88 #29 +5.6 #8
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #178 +0.0 #180
Freethrows 0.36 #313 75% #313 0.27 #326
Second Chance 31.3% #214 1.02 #181 0.32 #199
Turnovers 14.8% #311
Total Defense -2.1 #246

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.0% #305 0.8% #245
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.8% #260 -0.8% #168
Possession Length 17.1 #146 16.7 #91
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #228 0.22 #330
Improvement -1.7 #281 -0.1 #197

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.8
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 7.2% 7.9% 6.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Home) - 47.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 33 - 63 - 13
Quad 46 - 89 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 92 @Miami (OH) L 72 - 87 9% +3  0 - 1 -6 -3 B- D- F -2 C A- C
 Tue, Nov 11 309 Norfolk St. W 60 - 57 72% +1  1 - 1 -9 -7 F D- B -2 A- F+ B-
 Sat, Nov 15 80 @George Washington L 73 - 96 8% -11  1 - 2 -13 -1 D C D- -11 C+ D+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 85 @Xavier L 69 - 99 9% -20  1 - 3 -21 -4 D- C C -15 C- F C-
 Fri, Nov 21 354 Morgan St. W 88 - 56 85% +18  2 - 3 +15 +11 C D- A +6 B B- D-
 Sun, Nov 23 221 @Drexel L 71 - 75 30% -1  2 - 4 -4 +6 C C- B -10 D+ F+ D-
 Tue, Nov 25 31 @Villanova L 75 - 89 3% -6  2 - 5 +4 +14 B A- A -11 D D F+
 Sun, Nov 30 141 @William & Mary L 75 - 88 18% -7  2 - 6 -9 -5 D D- D+ -2 C- A D
 Sat, Dec 6 137 @Richmond L 77 - 86 17% -4  2 - 7 -5 -0 D- F+ A+ -4 B F+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 86 @George Mason L 61 - 73 9% -10  2 - 8 -3 -9 D- B F +6 A B+ C-
 Wed, Dec 17 220 James Madison W 77 - 68 53% +6  3 - 8 1 - 0 +3 +2 C- F B+ +1 C A- C
 Sat, Dec 20 240 Coastal Carolina L 74 - 76 58% -1  3 - 9 1 - 1 -10 -4 C C F -6 C+ A F
 Sun, Dec 28 116 @Maryland L 58 - 73 14% -18  3 - 10 -9 -10 F D+ D+ +0 C- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 172 Appalachian St. L 73 - 81 43% -13  3 - 11 1 - 2 -12 +4 A- F+ B -17 D+ F C
 Sat, Jan 3 270 Georgia Southern L 86 - 93 63% -13  3 - 12 1 - 3 -16 -5 F D A+ -10 D- D+ D+
 Thu, Jan 8 240 @Coastal Carolina W 70 - 66 35% +7  4 - 12 2 - 3 +2 -1 C- B- F +3 B B- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 220 @James Madison L 69 - 70 30% +9  4 - 13 2 - 4 -1 -5 F D B +4 D+ A- A
 Thu, Jan 15 270 @Georgia Southern L 84 - 87 40% +2  4 - 14 2 - 5 -6 +7 B+ D B+ -13 F C+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 172 @Appalachian St. W 75 - 73 23% +10  5 - 14 3 - 5 +4 +11 A+ C- C- -7 C F+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 136 Troy L 77 - 83 2OT 34% +1  5 - 15 3 - 6 -8 -8 F+ F B+ +1 A+ D+ D+
 Wed, Jan 28 169 @Arkansas St. W 75 - 71 22% +5  6 - 15 4 - 6 +6 +1 D C- B+ +6 C+ A C+
 Sat, Jan 31 256 @Texas St. L 64 - 81 37% -12  6 - 16 4 - 7 -19 -7 F C D+ -12 F+ B- F
 Wed, Feb 4 355 Louisiana Monroe L 79 - 85 86% -6  6 - 17 4 - 8 -23 -6 F D+ B+ -17 D C C-
 Sat, Feb 7 193 Ohio L 77 - 78 47%
 Wed, Feb 11 156 Marshall L 75 - 78 41%
 Sat, Feb 14 273 Georgia St. W 76 - 72 64%
 Mon, Feb 16 295 Louisiana W 70 - 65 69%
 Sat, Feb 21 244 @Southern Miss L 72 - 76 35%
 Tue, Feb 24 156 @Marshall L 72 - 81 21%
 Fri, Feb 27 273 @Georgia St. L 73 - 75 41%
Totals 9 - 21 7 - 11 -6 -4 D+ D+ C+ -2 C C D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.4 4th
5th 0.4 0.4 0.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.7 0.2 2.0 6th
7th 1.0 2.7 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 4.6 1.1 5.7 8th
9th 1.0 7.9 0.2 9.1 9th
10th 0.1 5.5 4.7 10.3 10th
11th 1.4 12.2 0.8 14.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 9.4 9.5 0.1 19.8 12th
13th 3.0 12.7 16.2 1.9 33.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 3.0 13.6 27.1 30.2 19.0 6.1 1.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 1.0% 5.8% 5.8% 15.2 0.1 0.0 1.0
9-9 6.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 6.0
8-10 19.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 18.9
7-11 30.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 30.2
6-12 27.1% 27.1
5-13 13.6% 13.6
4-14 3.0% 3.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.8 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.9%