IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.4	#240
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.4	#253
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.0	#289

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.3	#177

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	15.2%	20.9%	13.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.1	14.4	15.0

.500 or above	63.2%	81.1%	56.6%
.500 or above in Conference	75.2%	85.4%	71.5%
Conference Champion	20.5%	29.0%	17.4%
Last Place in Conference	3.0%	1.1%	3.6%

First Four	3.1%	2.4%	3.4%
First Round	15.0%	21.0%	12.7%
Second Round	0.4%	0.9%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Texas San Antonio (Away) - 27.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 3	2 - 4	2 - 6
Quad 4	14 - 7	16 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2025	167	@ Texas San Antonio	L	68-74	27%
Nov 10, 2025	170	Indiana St.	L	74-75	49%
Nov 14, 2025	114	@ Drake	L	53-64	16%
Nov 17, 2025	26	@ Wisconsin	L	58-80	2%
Nov 21, 2025	280	@ Air Force	L	63-64	47%
Nov 23, 2025	292	Alabama St.	W	69-66	60%
Dec 02, 2025	330	@ North Florida	W	77-74	59%
Dec 06, 2025	286	Western Michigan	W	72-66	69%
Dec 18, 2025	322	@ Eastern Illinois	W	65-63	58%
Dec 22, 2025	339	@ Western Illinois	W	66-62	63%
Jan 01, 2026	298	Southern Indiana	W	71-65	70%
Jan 03, 2026	293	Morehead St.	W	66-60	69%
Jan 06, 2026	327	Lindenwood	W	72-64	76%
Jan 08, 2026	177	Arkansas Little Rock	L	66-67	50%
Jan 15, 2026	323	@ Tennessee Martin	W	68-66	57%
Jan 17, 2026	231	@ Southeast Missouri St.	L	66-70	39%
Jan 22, 2026	259	Tennessee St.	W	73-69	63%
Jan 24, 2026	328	Tennessee Tech	W	73-64	76%
Jan 29, 2026	293	@ Morehead St.	L	63-64	50%
Jan 31, 2026	298	@ Southern Indiana	W	69-68	50%
Feb 03, 2026	327	@ Lindenwood	W	69-67	58%
Feb 07, 2026	177	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	63-69	31%
Feb 12, 2026	231	Southeast Missouri St.	W	69-67	59%
Feb 14, 2026	323	Tennessee Martin	W	71-63	75%
Feb 19, 2026	328	@ Tennessee Tech	W	70-67	58%
Feb 21, 2026	259	@ Tennessee St.	L	70-72	43%
Feb 26, 2026	339	Western Illinois	W	69-59	79%
Feb 28, 2026	322	Eastern Illinois	W	68-60	74%
Projected Record						15 - 13	12 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.5	2.0	3.8	4.8	4.6	3.0	1.4	0.4		20.5	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	1.1	3.7	5.4	4.2	2.0	0.6	0.1				17.2	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.4	4.2	4.4	2.5	0.7	0.1						13.4	3rd
4th										0.1	1.4	3.9	4.1	1.6	0.2	0.0							11.2	4th
5th									0.1	1.2	3.5	3.5	1.1	0.1									9.5	5th
6th								0.1	0.8	3.1	2.9	0.8	0.1										7.8	6th
7th						0.0	0.1	0.7	2.4	2.6	0.7	0.1											6.6	7th
8th						0.1	0.6	1.9	1.9	0.6	0.0												5.2	8th
9th				0.0	0.1	0.5	1.4	1.4	0.4	0.0													3.9	9th
10th			0.0	0.2	0.5	0.9	0.9	0.3	0.0	0.0													2.8	10th
11th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0															1.7	11th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.2	1.9	3.1	4.5	5.7	7.6	8.7	9.8	10.6	10.3	10.2	8.7	6.9	5.2	3.1	1.4	0.4			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.4		0.4
19-1	100.0%	1.4		1.3	0.0
18-2	96.8%	3.0		2.8	0.2
17-3	88.1%	4.6		3.9	0.7	0.0
16-4	70.1%	4.8		3.3	1.4	0.1
15-5	43.9%	3.8		2.0	1.5	0.3	0.0
14-6	19.8%	2.0		0.6	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-7	4.8%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-8	0.3%	0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	20.5%	20.5		14.4	4.9	1.0	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.4%		67.4%	67.4%		12.5												0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.1
19-1	1.4%		58.9%	58.9%		13.2												0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1		0.6
18-2	3.1%		48.9%	48.9%		13.7												0.0	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.0	1.6
17-3	5.2%		43.1%	43.1%		14.4													0.1	0.5	1.0	0.6	0.2	3.0
16-4	6.9%		34.0%	34.0%		15.5													0.0	0.2	0.7	1.1	0.4	4.5
15-5	8.7%		29.5%	29.5%		16.9														0.1	0.5	1.2	1.1	6.1
14-6	10.2%		22.2%	22.2%		17.6														0.0	0.2	1.0	1.3	7.9
13-7	10.3%		13.9%	13.9%		18.1														0.0	0.0	0.5	1.1	8.9
12-8	10.6%		7.5%	7.5%		18.9															0.0	0.2	0.8	9.8
11-9	9.8%		5.0%	5.0%		18.3															0.0	0.1	0.5	9.3
10-10	8.7%		2.7%	2.7%		16.8																0.0	0.2	8.5
9-11	7.6%		1.9%	1.9%		16.9																	0.2	7.4
8-12	5.7%		1.0%	1.0%		17.2																	0.1	5.7
7-13	4.5%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	4.5
6-14	3.1%																							3.1
5-15	1.9%																							1.9
4-16	1.2%																							1.2
3-17	0.6%																							0.6
2-18	0.2%																							0.2
1-19	0.1%																							0.1
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		15.2%	15.2%	0.0%	16.1												0.1	0.6	1.7	3.3	4.9	5.9	84.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%
Lose Out	0.0%