SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#234
Expected Predictive Rating-3.5#220
Pace65.4#289
Improvement-1.5#286

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#288
First Shot-2.3#235
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#311
Layup/Dunks-1.0#222
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#311
Freethrows+0.0#177
Improvement+0.5#128

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#157
First Shot+2.7#84
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#328
Layups/Dunks+8.0#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#282
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#258
Freethrows-2.0#305
Improvement-2.1#316
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.3% 20.2% 12.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 78.1% 85.5% 65.5%
.500 or above in Conference 81.6% 88.7% 69.7%
Conference Champion 24.5% 30.6% 14.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.5% 3.1%
First Four4.4% 4.5% 4.2%
First Round15.2% 18.0% 10.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Away) - 62.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 32 - 32 - 4
Quad 415 - 917 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 295 @Texas San Antonio W 77-60 50%     1 - 0 +12.8 +1.2 +11.0
  Mon, Nov 10 182 Indiana St. L 55-64 52%     1 - 1 -13.5 -19.0 +5.6
  Fri, Nov 14 136 @Drake W 61-59 20%     2 - 1 +6.6 -1.6 +8.5
  Mon, Nov 17 43 @Wisconsin L 69-94 5%     2 - 2 -10.2 +6.6 -18.2
  Fri, Nov 21 322 @Air Force L 63-77 60%     2 - 3 -20.7 -9.7 -11.3
  Sun, Nov 23 278 Alabama St. W 83-68 59%     3 - 3 +8.6 +9.7 -0.2
  Tue, Dec 2 343 @North Florida W 72-63 66%     4 - 3 +0.6 -1.7 +3.0
  Sat, Dec 6 249 Western Michigan L 73-83 65%     4 - 4 -18.1 -2.6 -15.8
  Thu, Dec 18 330 @Eastern Illinois W 67-64 63%    
  Mon, Dec 22 355 @Western Illinois W 69-62 73%    
  Thu, Jan 1 318 Southern Indiana W 74-66 77%    
  Sat, Jan 3 310 Morehead St. W 73-65 76%    
  Tue, Jan 6 228 Lindenwood W 73-70 60%    
  Thu, Jan 8 325 Arkansas Little Rock W 72-63 79%    
  Thu, Jan 15 251 @Tennessee Martin L 65-67 43%    
  Sat, Jan 17 213 @Southeast Missouri St. L 69-73 37%    
  Thu, Jan 22 230 Tennessee St. W 70-67 61%    
  Sat, Jan 24 261 Tennessee Tech W 72-68 66%    
  Thu, Jan 29 310 @Morehead St. W 70-68 56%    
  Sat, Jan 31 318 @Southern Indiana W 71-69 57%    
  Tue, Feb 3 228 @Lindenwood L 70-73 40%    
  Sat, Feb 7 325 @Arkansas Little Rock W 69-66 60%    
  Thu, Feb 12 213 Southeast Missouri St. W 72-70 58%    
  Sat, Feb 14 251 Tennessee Martin W 68-64 64%    
  Thu, Feb 19 261 @Tennessee Tech L 69-71 45%    
  Sat, Feb 21 230 @Tennessee St. L 67-70 39%    
  Thu, Feb 26 355 Western Illinois W 72-59 87%    
  Sat, Feb 28 330 Eastern Illinois W 70-61 79%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.4 3.8 6.3 6.1 4.1 1.9 0.7 0.1 24.5 1st
2nd 0.2 2.0 5.2 5.8 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 5.4 5.2 1.8 0.2 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 4.6 4.3 1.2 0.1 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.8 3.7 1.0 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 2.6 3.5 0.9 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.6 1.0 0.1 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.8 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 3.1 5.3 6.8 9.7 11.4 12.8 13.0 11.5 9.7 6.8 4.2 1.9 0.7 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7
18-2 99.5% 1.9    1.9 0.0
17-3 98.1% 4.1    3.7 0.4 0.0
16-4 89.1% 6.1    4.8 1.2 0.1
15-5 65.3% 6.3    3.8 2.2 0.3 0.0
14-6 33.5% 3.8    1.6 1.6 0.6 0.1
13-7 10.5% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 24.5% 24.5 16.7 6.1 1.5 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 63.9% 63.9% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.7% 48.5% 48.5% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3
18-2 1.9% 50.4% 50.4% 14.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0
17-3 4.2% 40.4% 40.4% 14.8 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.2 2.5
16-4 6.8% 36.2% 36.2% 15.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.9 4.4
15-5 9.7% 34.2% 34.2% 15.5 0.1 1.4 1.8 6.4
14-6 11.5% 25.2% 25.2% 15.7 0.0 0.9 2.0 8.6
13-7 13.0% 19.6% 19.6% 15.8 0.4 2.2 10.5
12-8 12.8% 12.3% 12.3% 15.9 0.1 1.4 11.2
11-9 11.4% 6.8% 6.8% 15.9 0.0 0.7 10.6
10-10 9.7% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4 9.3
9-11 6.8% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.2 6.6
8-12 5.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 5.2
7-13 3.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.0
6-14 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.7
5-15 0.9% 0.9
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 17.3% 17.3% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 5.5 9.9 82.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.1 13.0 65.2 21.7