Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.6 #202
Expected Predictive Rating +1.7 #136
Pace 64.8 #287
Improvement +0.2 #179

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #264 C- C F+ C C
Defense #136 C+ C C+ C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #325 1.12 #219 -4.0 #312
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #228 0.88 #48 +0.1 #171
Three Pointers 49% #28 0.95 #272 +2.6 #90
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #216 -1.3 #216
Freethrows 0.32 #115 67% #330 0.22 #182
Second Chance 35.3% #52 0.91 #327 0.32 #158
Turnovers 20.8% #356
Total Offense -3.6 #264

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #336 1.28 #318 +2.3 #99
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #160 0.73 #122 +0.1 #186
Three Pointers 48% #29 0.93 #65 -1.2 #243
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #137 +1.2 #137
Freethrows 0.33 #268 68% #18 0.22 #202
Second Chance 33.0% #284 0.94 #70 0.31 #171
Turnovers 17.5% #126
Total Defense +1.0 #136

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #205 -1.2% #80
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.5% #215 -1.2% #159
Possession Length 18.3 #283 17.4 #212
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #200 0.21 #312
Improvement -0.8 #224 +0.9 #125

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.6% 33.2% 26.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 75.6% 81.3% 56.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.8%
First Round31.3% 33.0% 25.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Home) - 77.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 31 - 32 - 4
Quad 419 - 421 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 128 @UNLV W 86 - 81 23% -1  1 - 0 +10 +4 C C+ C+ +5 B+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 121 @Bradley W 78 - 67 22% +2  2 - 0 +17 +4 A+ A F +12 A+ D+ A
 Tue, Nov 18 101 @Florida St. L 73 - 87 16% -6  2 - 1 -6 -2 B+ A F -3 D+ A- F
 Sat, Nov 22 340 Prairie View W 69 - 68 80% -2  3 - 1 -10 -8 D- F+ F -3 B+ C- C
 Sun, Nov 23 250 Southern Miss L 60 - 70 60% -14  3 - 2 -15 +2 C+ D- C+ -20 F+ F F+
 Tue, Dec 2 245 Charleston Southern W 73 - 56 69% +5  4 - 2 +9 +2 D+ D+ C +8 A+ C- B+
 Sun, Dec 7 322 Alabama St. W 74 - 64 83% -0  5 - 2 -3 -0 F B- C- -2 F A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 10 135 @Southern Illinois L 54 - 83 25% -9  5 - 3 -25 -13 F+ F F -12 F F+ B-
 Thu, Dec 18 230 @Tennessee St. L 71 - 78 43% +1  5 - 4 0 - 1 -8 -3 F C+ F+ -5 D- B- D
 Sat, Dec 20 333 @Tennessee Tech W 86 - 62 69% +7  6 - 4 1 - 1 +16 +19 A+ F A- +0 F B+ B+
 Thu, Jan 1 362 Western Illinois W 67 - 60 93% -2  7 - 4 2 - 1 -12 -7 F F A- -5 F A B+
 Sat, Jan 3 321 Eastern Illinois W 65 - 61 83% -0  8 - 4 3 - 1 -9 -7 F B+ F -1 C+ A- C-
 Thu, Jan 8 299 @Morehead St. W 76 - 68 59% -3  9 - 4 4 - 1 +3 +9 B- B- C- -5 C- F+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 332 @Southern Indiana W 73 - 56 69% +2  10 - 4 5 - 1 +9 +9 C+ A+ F +2 A- F+ C+
 Thu, Jan 15 252 SIU Edwardsville W 65 - 59 71% +3  11 - 4 6 - 1 -2 -1 D+ B D+ -0 B+ C F
 Sat, Jan 17 239 Lindenwood W 69 - 55 68% +10  12 - 4 7 - 1 +7 -6 C C- F +13 A+ B A-
 Tue, Jan 20 238 @Southeast Missouri St. L 50 - 66 45% -18  12 - 5 7 - 2 -17 -18 F C- F -1 C+ F+ C+
 Thu, Jan 29 321 @Eastern Illinois W 76 - 68 66% +7  13 - 5 8 - 2 +1 +6 A+ D+ F -5 C+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 362 @Western Illinois W 84 - 44 84% +21  14 - 5 9 - 2 +27 +14 C+ A+ C +17 B+ A+ A-
 Tue, Feb 3 292 Arkansas Little Rock W 73 - 65 77%
 Thu, Feb 5 332 Southern Indiana W 72 - 61 85%
 Sat, Feb 7 299 Morehead St. W 73 - 65 78%
 Thu, Feb 12 239 @Lindenwood L 72 - 73 45%
 Sat, Feb 14 252 @SIU Edwardsville L 62 - 63 49%
 Tue, Feb 17 238 Southeast Missouri St. W 73 - 68 67%
 Thu, Feb 19 292 @Arkansas Little Rock W 70 - 68 57%
 Thu, Feb 26 333 Tennessee Tech W 75 - 64 85%
 Sat, Feb 28 230 Tennessee St. W 75 - 71 65%
Totals 20 - 8 15 - 5 -3 -4 C- C F+ +1 C+ C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.8 10.4 22.8 24.1 13.8 3.7 75.6 1st
2nd 0.1 4.0 7.9 2.0 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 3.9 0.9 5.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 0.9 2.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.7 9.7 19.2 24.8 24.1 13.8 3.7 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 3.7    3.7
17-3 100.0% 13.8    13.8
16-4 100.0% 24.1    22.8 1.3 0.0
15-5 92.0% 22.8    15.0 7.2 0.6 0.0
14-6 54.0% 10.4    2.3 4.9 2.7 0.4 0.0
13-7 8.6% 0.8    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 75.6% 75.6 57.6 13.5 3.6 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 3.7% 47.5% 47.5% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.0 2.0
17-3 13.8% 41.6% 41.6% 14.2 0.0 0.7 3.1 1.9 0.0 8.0
16-4 24.1% 37.1% 37.1% 14.7 0.2 2.7 5.4 0.6 15.2
15-5 24.8% 33.4% 33.4% 15.0 0.0 1.3 5.3 1.7 16.5
14-6 19.2% 26.4% 26.4% 15.3 0.0 0.4 2.8 1.9 14.1
13-7 9.7% 14.7% 14.7% 15.4 0.1 0.7 0.7 8.3
12-8 3.7% 8.8% 8.8% 15.7 0.1 0.2 3.4
11-9 1.0% 6.3% 6.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.9
10-10 0.1% 0.1
9-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 31.6% 31.6% 0.0% 14.8 68.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 13.2 0.3 12.9 51.1 34.6 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%