Wofford
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.8 #184
Expected Predictive Rating +1.0 #146
Pace 68.7 #185
Improvement +3.8 #36

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #141 C- C- B- C+ B-
Defense #264 C- C- C- C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #129 1.02 #330 -1.7 #241
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #303 0.71 #253 -2.6 #305
Three Pointers 45% #100 1.01 #193 +2.0 #117
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #244 -2.3 #245
Freethrows 0.33 #100 72% #211 0.24 #118
Second Chance 29.9% #206 0.96 #289 0.29 #244
Turnovers 15.0% #92
Total Offense +0.9 #141

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #22 1.12 #126 -3.2 #286
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #247 0.80 #257 +0.5 #150
Three Pointers 36% #300 1.08 #272 +1.3 #130
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #226 -1.4 #226
Freethrows 0.29 #155 77% #353 0.22 #212
Second Chance 31.3% #219 1.10 #262 0.34 #250
Turnovers 15.4% #240
Total Defense -2.8 #264

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #63 1.6% #316
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.3% #290 1.2% #210
Possession Length 17.9 #227 16.6 #59
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #300 0.16 #140
Improvement +5.2 #4 -1.4 #263

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.6% 17.3% 11.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.7
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.6%
Conference Champion 40.3% 60.8% 20.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round14.5% 17.3% 11.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Home) - 49.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 43 - 7
Quad 417 - 420 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 86 @George Mason L 46 - 70 14% -9  0 - 1 -14 -19 F D F +3 B D B+
 Sat, Nov 8 245 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 86 - 76 71% +12  1 - 1 +2 +3 F+ B+ C- -1 C+ A F+
 Tue, Nov 11 25 @Auburn L 62 - 93 4% -19  1 - 2 -12 -6 D- D- C -6 C F+ B-
 Sat, Nov 15 305 @Bellarmine W 94 - 86 63% +8  2 - 2 +3 +12 A+ F D+ -9 C F F
 Wed, Nov 19 351 North Florida W 86 - 78 90% +1  3 - 2 -8 -4 F+ B D+ -4 D A+ D
 Wed, Nov 26 176 @Northern Kentucky L 83 - 93 37% -2  3 - 3 -8 +6 D- D A- -13 D- D- F
 Sat, Nov 29 258 @Eastern Kentucky W 83 - 77 53% +8  4 - 3 +3 +4 D- D A+ -0 A- F D-
 Wed, Dec 3 255 Presbyterian W 63 - 56 74% +4  5 - 3 -1 -7 F D- A+ +6 A D+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 183 Elon L 52 - 73 61% -21  5 - 4 -26 -19 F F B- -10 D A B-
 Mon, Dec 15 363 @Gardner-Webb W 83 - 57 89% +11  6 - 4 +11 +4 F+ A+ D+ +7 C+ A B
 Wed, Dec 17 97 @Wichita St. L 73 - 84 17% -7  6 - 5 -3 +9 C B+ B -12 F+ B- D
 Wed, Dec 31 262 @Western Carolina W 79 - 74 53% +3  7 - 5 1 - 0 +2 +1 C C- D +1 B+ C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 347 @The Citadel W 95 - 86 75% +8  8 - 5 2 - 0 +0 +22 A+ F+ D+ -21 F F C+
 Wed, Jan 7 308 UNC Greensboro W 97 - 85 82% +11  9 - 5 3 - 0 +0 +17 D A+ A+ -16 F F D
 Sat, Jan 10 145 @Mercer L 97 - 109 29% -7  9 - 6 3 - 1 -8 +16 B B C+ -23 F F C+
 Wed, Jan 14 276 Chattanooga L 67 - 76 77% +2  9 - 7 3 - 2 -19 -10 F+ F A- -9 F B+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 160 @Furman W 74 - 70 32% -3  10 - 7 4 - 2 +7 +10 B C B -3 A- F C
 Wed, Jan 21 239 Samford W 88 - 78 70% +1  11 - 7 5 - 2 +3 +15 A+ D+ B- -12 F+ D- C
 Sat, Jan 24 145 Mercer W 80 - 77 51% +1  12 - 7 6 - 2 +1 +4 C B+ B- -3 C A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 276 @Chattanooga W 81 - 55 57% +13  13 - 7 7 - 2 +22 +11 C D+ A+ +13 A+ C+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 140 East Tennessee St. L 74 - 75 50%
 Wed, Feb 4 357 @VMI W 80 - 71 81%
 Sat, Feb 7 262 Western Carolina W 84 - 77 74%
 Wed, Feb 11 239 @Samford L 77 - 78 49%
 Sat, Feb 14 308 @UNC Greensboro W 80 - 76 64%
 Wed, Feb 18 357 VMI W 83 - 68 93%
 Sat, Feb 21 160 Furman W 74 - 73 55%
 Wed, Feb 25 140 @East Tennessee St. L 71 - 77 27%
 Sat, Feb 28 347 The Citadel W 80 - 67 90%
Totals 19 - 10 13 - 5 -2 +1 C- C- B- -3 C- C- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 9.8 17.3 9.9 2.1 40.3 1st
2nd 1.0 8.6 14.4 3.4 27.4 2nd
3rd 0.5 5.9 10.9 3.1 0.1 20.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.5 1.8 10.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.7 12.6 22.4 27.4 20.8 9.9 2.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 2.1    2.1
15-3 100.0% 9.9    8.8 1.1
14-4 83.4% 17.3    9.4 6.8 1.2
13-5 36.0% 9.8    1.8 4.5 3.0 0.5
12-6 5.1% 1.1    0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 40.3% 40.3 22.1 12.7 4.6 0.9



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 2.1% 29.0% 29.0% 13.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 1.5
15-3 9.9% 20.5% 20.5% 14.0 0.4 1.4 0.3 7.9
14-4 20.8% 19.6% 19.6% 14.3 0.4 2.0 1.6 0.0 16.7
13-5 27.4% 15.0% 15.0% 14.6 0.1 1.6 2.3 0.1 23.2
12-6 22.4% 11.8% 11.8% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 0.4 19.8
11-7 12.6% 6.2% 6.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 11.8
10-8 3.7% 6.1% 6.1% 15.4 0.1 0.1 3.5
9-9 0.9% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.1 0.9
8-10 0.2% 0.2
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.6% 14.6% 0.0% 14.5 85.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 13.1 13.4 60.5 26.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%