Miami (OH)
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.9#106
Expected Predictive Rating+8.3#73
Pace72.4#104
Improvement-0.8#234

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#93
First Shot+6.0#37
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#333
Layup/Dunks+1.2#125
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#185
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#49
Freethrows+0.3#159
Improvement+0.0#186

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#145
First Shot-1.4#222
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#55
Layups/Dunks+1.4#129
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#228
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#264
Freethrows-0.3#198
Improvement-0.8#248
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.0% 17.3% 12.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.2 12.6
.500 or above 99.7% 100.0% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 88.1% 91.1% 85.2%
Conference Champion 11.0% 13.2% 8.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round15.0% 17.2% 12.8%
Second Round2.1% 2.7% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wright St. (Away) - 49.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 37 - 48 - 6
Quad 413 - 121 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 216 Old Dominion W 87-72 83%     1 - 0 +8.6 +5.1 +2.6
  Sat, Nov 15 324 @Air Force W 76-61 84%     2 - 0 +8.3 +5.5 +3.5
  Thu, Nov 20 328 Mercyhurst W 76-71 93%     3 - 0 -8.1 +2.9 -10.6
  Sun, Nov 23 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 111-84 96%     4 - 0 +11.3 +16.0 -8.6
  Wed, Nov 26 281 UNC Greensboro W 82-71 83%     5 - 0 +4.5 +2.6 +1.6
  Sat, Dec 6 336 Maine W 93-61 94%     6 - 0 +18.2 +16.4 +1.2
  Wed, Dec 10 227 @UNC Asheville W 90-87 OT 67%     7 - 0 +2.3 +6.7 -4.8
  Sat, Dec 13 257 @Eastern Kentucky W 79-69 73%     8 - 0 +7.7 +6.4 +1.6
  Tue, Dec 16 143 @Wright St. L 75-76 50%    
  Sat, Dec 20 308 @Ball St. W 77-68 80%    
  Tue, Dec 30 125 @Bowling Green L 75-77 44%    
  Sat, Jan 3 65 Akron L 85-87 44%    
  Tue, Jan 6 242 Western Michigan W 84-72 86%    
  Fri, Jan 9 167 @Toledo W 82-80 56%    
  Tue, Jan 13 322 Central Michigan W 84-68 93%    
  Sat, Jan 17 209 Buffalo W 83-73 82%    
  Tue, Jan 20 124 @Kent St. L 83-85 43%    
  Tue, Jan 27 152 Massachusetts W 83-77 71%    
  Sat, Jan 31 326 Northern Illinois W 87-70 94%    
  Tue, Feb 3 209 @Buffalo W 80-76 64%    
  Sat, Feb 14 175 Ohio W 85-77 76%    
  Tue, Feb 17 152 @Massachusetts W 81-80 52%    
  Sat, Feb 21 125 Bowling Green W 78-74 66%    
  Tue, Feb 24 228 @Eastern Michigan W 76-71 66%    
  Sat, Feb 28 242 @Western Michigan W 81-75 69%    
  Fri, Mar 6 175 @Ohio W 82-80 57%    
Projected Record 20 - 6 11 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.0 3.9 2.2 0.5 11.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.1 7.1 6.4 2.5 0.4 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.5 7.8 5.3 1.3 0.1 18.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.8 7.0 4.5 0.7 0.0 15.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 5.5 3.7 0.6 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.7 3.5 0.7 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.7 0.6 0.0 5.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.2 0.7 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.1 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.3 6.0 9.1 12.8 15.3 16.3 14.3 10.8 6.4 2.6 0.5 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.1
16-2 85.9% 2.2    1.6 0.6 0.0
15-3 60.1% 3.9    2.2 1.5 0.2
14-4 28.2% 3.0    1.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 7.7% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.0% 11.0 5.6 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.5% 57.9% 54.3% 3.7% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8.0%
16-2 2.6% 39.0% 38.5% 0.5% 11.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.6 0.8%
15-3 6.4% 30.8% 30.7% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.4 0.1%
14-4 10.8% 24.4% 24.4% 12.1 0.3 1.7 0.6 0.0 8.1
13-5 14.3% 20.3% 20.3% 12.4 0.1 1.6 1.0 0.1 11.4
12-6 16.3% 14.7% 14.7% 12.7 0.0 1.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 13.9
11-7 15.3% 12.2% 12.2% 12.9 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 13.4
10-8 12.8% 8.9% 8.9% 13.2 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 11.7
9-9 9.1% 6.1% 6.1% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 8.5
8-10 6.0% 3.8% 3.8% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.7
7-11 3.3% 0.6% 0.6% 14.3 0.0 0.0 3.3
6-12 1.6% 1.6
5-13 0.6% 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.0% 15.0% 0.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 6.8 5.0 1.4 0.2 85.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 9.3 1.6 7.9 9.5 7.9 14.3 23.8 33.3 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 18.5% 10.8 3.7 14.8