Miami (OH)
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.0 #91
Expected Predictive Rating +17.3 #19
Pace 73.5 #62
Improvement +1.7 #101

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #57 B+ D+ B- B C+
Defense #168 C- B C C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #215 1.35 #17 +2.8 #88
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #273 0.78 #132 -1.5 #258
Three Pointers 47% #67 1.13 #38 +5.6 #29
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #23 +7.0 #23
Freethrows 0.33 #113 78% #14 0.26 #53
Second Chance 24.0% #337 1.17 #45 0.28 #260
Turnovers 14.7% #76
Total Offense +6.0 #57

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #234 1.19 #224 +0.5 #150
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #109 0.87 #334 -2.0 #324
Three Pointers 41% #185 1.03 #200 -0.2 #187
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #233 -1.7 #233
Freethrows 0.28 #124 77% #350 0.22 #189
Second Chance 29.0% #118 0.92 #39 0.27 #63
Turnovers 16.8% #159
Total Defense -0.1 #168

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #125 -0.7% #107
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.6% #19 4.1% #261
Possession Length 16.5 #98 17.0 #129
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #226 0.14 #80
Improvement +2.4 #65 -0.7 #226

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.4% 29.7% 22.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.6 11.6 11.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 66.9% 68.4% 35.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
First Round29.0% 29.3% 22.5%
Second Round4.4% 4.5% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Home) - 95.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 02 - 0
Quad 39 - 211 - 3
Quad 416 - 127 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 232 Old Dominion W 87 - 72 89% -3  1 - 0 +8 +6 A- F D+ +1 D- C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 347 @Air Force W 76 - 61 91% +10  2 - 0 +6 +5 A- F C +1 B- B- D
 Thu, Nov 20 306 Mercyhurst W 76 - 71 94% +5  3 - 0 -6 +5 C D- C+ -11 F C B-
 Sun, Nov 23 325 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 111 - 84 95% +20  4 - 0 +14 +16 A+ F+ A- -6 B+ C F
 Wed, Nov 26 305 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 71 91% -1  5 - 0 +3 -0 C F C- +2 C+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 335 Maine W 93 - 61 96% +21  6 - 0 +18 +17 B A+ F+ +0 D+ D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 203 @UNC Asheville W 90 - 87 OT 71% +6  7 - 0 +3 +9 B F A+ -6 F B+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 258 @Eastern Kentucky W 79 - 69 78% +9  8 - 0 +8 +5 C+ C B- +3 C+ B+ B
 Tue, Dec 16 153 @Wright St. W 83 - 76 60% +8  9 - 0 +11 +8 A+ F B +3 B A+ D
 Sat, Dec 20 294 @Ball St. W 86 - 77 84% +3  10 - 0 1 - 0 +4 +12 B+ D- D- -7 F A F
 Tue, Dec 30 147 @Bowling Green W 93 - 83 58% +13  11 - 0 2 - 0 +14 +15 A+ B+ D -2 C B- B-
 Sat, Jan 3 62 Akron W 76 - 73 50% -1  12 - 0 3 - 0 +9 +1 F A+ D +8 A+ B- A
 Tue, Jan 6 272 Western Michigan W 87 - 76 92% +6  13 - 0 4 - 0 +2 +3 C+ C+ F -2 C+ A D
 Fri, Jan 9 165 @Toledo W 87 - 73 63% +17  14 - 0 5 - 0 +17 +13 A- C- A- +4 B- A C+
 Tue, Jan 13 304 Central Michigan W 100 - 61 94% +17  15 - 0 6 - 0 +28 +21 A+ C+ B+ +6 C A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 17 184 Buffalo W 105 - 102 OT 84% -0  16 - 0 7 - 0 -2 +9 A+ F+ A- -12 F A+ B-
 Tue, Jan 20 142 @Kent St. W 107 - 101 OT 57% +6  17 - 0 8 - 0 +10 +19 A+ F A+ -9 D D C
 Tue, Jan 27 170 Massachusetts W 86 - 84 82% -3  18 - 0 9 - 0 -2 +16 C A+ B+ -18 F D D-
 Sat, Jan 31 310 Northern Illinois W 87 - 69 96%
 Tue, Feb 3 184 @Buffalo W 84 - 79 68%
 Sat, Feb 7 163 @Marshall W 84 - 81 62%
 Sat, Feb 14 214 Ohio W 88 - 76 88%
 Tue, Feb 17 170 @Massachusetts W 85 - 81 65%
 Sat, Feb 21 147 Bowling Green W 84 - 76 78%
 Tue, Feb 24 241 @Eastern Michigan W 80 - 73 76%
 Sat, Feb 28 272 @Western Michigan W 86 - 77 81%
 Tue, Mar 3 165 Toledo W 88 - 79 81%
 Fri, Mar 6 214 @Ohio W 85 - 79 72%
Totals 26 - 2 16 - 2 +6 +6 B+ D+ B- +0 C- B C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 6.7 19.5 26.9 12.8 66.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.3 7.8 12.7 8.3 31.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 1.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.9 9.1 19.5 27.9 26.9 12.8 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 12.8    12.8
17-1 100.0% 26.9    18.9 8.0
16-2 70.1% 19.5    9.5 10.0
15-3 34.7% 6.7    2.1 4.3 0.3
14-4 10.5% 1.0    0.2 0.6 0.2
13-5 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 66.9% 66.9 43.5 22.9 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 12.8% 41.0% 37.9% 3.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.6 1.1 0.0 7.6 5.0%
17-1 26.9% 34.0% 33.1% 0.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 4.7 4.3 0.1 17.7 1.3%
16-2 27.9% 29.3% 29.1% 0.2% 11.7 0.0 2.8 5.0 0.3 0.0 19.7 0.3%
15-3 19.5% 23.7% 23.7% 0.1% 11.9 0.9 3.3 0.4 14.8 0.1%
14-4 9.1% 18.1% 18.1% 12.0 0.2 1.3 0.2 7.5
13-5 2.9% 15.2% 15.2% 12.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 2.5
12-6 0.8% 15.3% 15.3% 12.5 0.1 0.1 0.7
11-7 0.2% 10.0% 10.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 29.4% 28.7% 0.7% 11.6 70.6 1.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.4% 100.0% 10.9 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 4.3 9.3 71.7 13.4 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.7% 7.2% 11.1 6.8 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5% 6.6% 11.0 0.3 5.9 0.3