Ohio
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.2 #214
Expected Predictive Rating -2.1 #205
Pace 73.3 #64
Improvement -1.9 #275

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #220 C D+ C C D+
Defense #214 C D+ C C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #218 1.14 #194 -1.2 #229
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #95 1.00 #8 +4.5 #17
Three Pointers 38% #237 0.90 #318 -3.5 #303
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #182 -0.3 #183
Freethrows 0.31 #145 70% #272 0.22 #184
Second Chance 28.3% #247 0.95 #308 0.27 #278
Turnovers 16.0% #147
Total Offense -2.0 #220

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #94 1.08 #80 -0.3 #190
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #172 0.87 #332 -1.2 #281
Three Pointers 37% #281 1.04 #230 +1.3 #131
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #184 -0.2 #184
Freethrows 0.31 #196 75% #307 0.23 #226
Second Chance 33.5% #301 1.06 #211 0.36 #274
Turnovers 16.1% #208
Total Defense -1.2 #214

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #268 0.5% #210
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.8% #163 -0.1% #183
Possession Length 16.7 #112 17.1 #148
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #324 0.14 #72
Improvement -2.6 #320 +0.7 #149

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 1.8% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 19.4% 35.0% 11.4%
.500 or above in Conference 53.2% 76.1% 41.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round1.4% 1.7% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Away) - 33.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 35 - 65 - 12
Quad 48 - 413 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 151 Arkansas St. L 85 - 89 47% +2  0 - 1 -6 +4 B F C+ -10 C- F A
 Thu, Nov 6 89 Illinois St. W 72 - 68 27% +2  1 - 1 +7 +1 A- F A+ +6 B+ A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 42 @St. Mary's L 60 - 90 6% -15  1 - 2 -15 -5 D B+ F -11 C F D
 Sat, Nov 15 18 @Louisville L 81 - 106 2% -14  1 - 3 -5 +10 A+ D- F -12 C F C-
 Wed, Nov 19 248 Bethune-Cookman L 73 - 76 67% -4  1 - 4 -11 -1 C F A- -10 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 87 George Mason L 69 - 92 18% -20  1 - 5 -16 +1 C+ B+ D -18 D F F
 Tue, Nov 25 155 Loyola Marymount L 58 - 70 37% -4  1 - 6 -12 -13 F+ D- F +2 B+ C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 335 Maine W 79 - 57 85% +12  2 - 6 +8 +10 C+ C+ C -0 B- D A-
 Sat, Dec 6 163 Marshall W 88 - 81 50% +6  3 - 6 +4 +10 B+ C- A- -6 B- D+ D+
 Sat, Dec 13 150 St. Bonaventure W 88 - 83 OT 35% +3  4 - 6 +6 +5 B+ A B -0 B+ F B
 Sat, Dec 20 147 Bowling Green L 58 - 68 46% -9  4 - 7 0 - 1 -12 -14 F C D- +1 B+ D A+
 Tue, Dec 30 304 @Central Michigan W 80 - 64 58% +5  5 - 7 1 - 1 +11 -3 D- F C +12 B A+ B
 Sat, Jan 3 241 @Eastern Michigan W 68 - 67 43% -9  6 - 7 2 - 1 -0 -0 B F F -0 D A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 6 170 Massachusetts W 86 - 83 53% +3  7 - 7 3 - 1 -1 +7 A D C -8 D- A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 184 Buffalo W 91 - 80 56% +4  8 - 7 4 - 1 +6 +8 A+ A+ F -3 B D+ C
 Tue, Jan 13 165 @Toledo L 85 - 101 29% -4  8 - 8 4 - 2 -13 +10 C B- B -24 F F D
 Fri, Jan 16 294 @Ball St. L 71 - 76 55% -8  8 - 9 4 - 3 -10 -0 C- D- C -10 D C- C-
 Tue, Jan 20 310 Northern Illinois W 80 - 77 79% +5  9 - 9 5 - 3 -9 -0 C C- D -9 D- B- B-
 Fri, Jan 23 62 Akron L 65 - 86 19% -15  9 - 10 5 - 4 -15 -12 F D A+ -2 B A+ C
 Tue, Jan 27 142 @Kent St. L 57 - 72 24% -4  9 - 11 5 - 5 -11 -17 F F+ C+ +6 A+ F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 184 @Buffalo L 76 - 80 34%
 Tue, Feb 3 272 Western Michigan W 81 - 75 72%
 Sat, Feb 7 232 @Old Dominion L 76 - 78 42%
 Sat, Feb 14 91 @Miami (OH) L 76 - 88 12%
 Tue, Feb 17 294 Ball St. W 75 - 68 76%
 Sat, Feb 21 310 @Northern Illinois W 76 - 73 59%
 Sat, Feb 28 165 Toledo W 80 - 79 51%
 Tue, Mar 3 170 @Massachusetts L 76 - 81 31%
 Fri, Mar 6 91 Miami (OH) L 79 - 85 28%
Totals 13 - 16 9 - 9 -3 -2 C D+ C -1 C D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.8 0.1 2.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 6.1 4.5 0.8 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.7 7.8 8.6 1.3 0.0 18.6 5th
6th 0.2 6.0 12.5 2.6 0.1 21.3 6th
7th 0.0 2.6 12.7 4.6 0.1 20.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 7.7 6.0 0.2 0.0 14.9 8th
9th 0.1 2.1 4.0 0.4 6.6 9th
10th 0.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.2 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.8 5.2 15.0 25.8 26.2 17.8 7.4 1.6 0.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.2% 5.3% 5.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 1.6% 4.0% 4.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
11-7 7.4% 3.3% 3.3% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.1
10-8 17.8% 2.5% 2.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 17.4
9-9 26.2% 1.6% 1.6% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 25.8
8-10 25.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15.8 0.0 0.2 25.6
7-11 15.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 15.0
6-12 5.2% 5.2
5-13 0.8% 0.8
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 14.9 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%