Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.7 #310
Expected Predictive Rating -8.3 #300
Pace 69.7 #157
Improvement +2.6 #69

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #324 D+ C- F C+ B
Defense #263 D+ D+ C+ D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #141 1.03 #319 -1.7 #246
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #333 0.70 #262 -3.5 #333
Three Pointers 48% #47 0.97 #250 +2.2 #108
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #266 -3.0 #266
Freethrows 0.35 #50 68% #319 0.24 #125
Second Chance 34.1% #81 0.87 #353 0.30 #217
Turnovers 22.0% #363
Total Offense -6.0 #324

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #50 1.25 #292 -5.1 #339
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #316 0.79 #237 +1.5 #79
Three Pointers 40% #200 1.04 #219 -0.1 #181
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #295 -3.7 #294
Freethrows 0.35 #306 72% #166 0.25 #297
Second Chance 32.8% #275 1.13 #287 0.37 #300
Turnovers 17.2% #125
Total Defense -2.8 #263

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.3% #40 2.0% #339
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.0% #310 5.1% #273
Possession Length 18.1 #251 17.0 #114
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #246 0.21 #321
Improvement -2.7 #324 +5.3 #3

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.3% 9.0% 0.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 26.6% 8.1% 27.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (OH) (Away) - 4.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 81 - 14
Quad 47 - 68 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 361 Louisiana Monroe W 102 - 82 83% +10  1 - 0 +1 +14 D+ A+ F -14 F F+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 38 @Wisconsin L 72 - 97 2% -19  1 - 1 -9 +2 A+ F F -9 C+ F C
 Mon, Nov 10 71 @Grand Canyon L 59 - 88 5% -17  1 - 2 -18 -6 D B+ F -11 D- F A-
 Tue, Nov 18 108 @Northern Iowa L 57 - 70 8% -3  1 - 3 -6 -0 B D+ F -7 F C- A+
 Fri, Nov 21 281 @Loyola Chicago W 76 - 59 32% +9  2 - 3 +13 +11 B+ B- F +5 C- B+ B
 Tue, Nov 25 175 @Austin Peay L 59 - 77 16% -7  2 - 4 -16 -6 F D+ B+ -12 F D C
 Tue, Dec 2 247 Lindenwood L 64 - 99 46% -22  2 - 5 -43 -15 D+ F F -26 C F F
 Sat, Dec 6 126 @Bradley L 55 - 84 11% -14  2 - 6 -24 -18 F C+ F -5 F C+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 192 @Elon L 79 - 85 18% +4  2 - 7 -5 +2 D+ C- D- -7 C- A D-
 Sat, Dec 20 304 Central Michigan W 74 - 73 60% -10  3 - 7 1 - 0 -10 -0 D- B+ F -10 D+ F B
 Wed, Dec 31 184 Buffalo L 67 - 81 35% -7  3 - 8 1 - 1 -19 -10 D- F F+ -9 D F A
 Sat, Jan 3 142 @Kent St. L 73 - 77 12% -9  3 - 9 1 - 2 +0 -2 B+ C- F +3 B- B+ C
 Tue, Jan 6 165 Toledo L 61 - 75 30% -11  3 - 10 1 - 3 -17 -17 D- D F +0 D+ A+ B+
 Tue, Jan 13 241 @Eastern Michigan L 59 - 77 24% -3  3 - 11 1 - 4 -19 -15 F+ F D- -4 D+ A- D-
 Sat, Jan 17 170 Massachusetts W 70 - 68 32% +3  4 - 11 2 - 4 -2 -7 F+ D+ D +5 B+ A- A+
 Tue, Jan 20 214 @Ohio L 77 - 80 21% -5  4 - 12 2 - 5 -3 +1 B- D- F -5 D+ D- B+
 Sat, Jan 24 294 @Ball St. L 53 - 58 34% -6  4 - 13 2 - 6 -10 -12 F C C- +2 C- C- D+
 Tue, Jan 27 272 Western Michigan W 85 - 65 52% +12  5 - 13 3 - 6 +11 +19 A+ B- C- -5 C+ B- C
 Sat, Jan 31 91 @Miami (OH) L 69 - 87 4%
 Sat, Feb 7 269 @Georgia St. L 68 - 74 30%
 Wed, Feb 11 147 Bowling Green L 70 - 77 27%
 Sat, Feb 14 304 @Central Michigan L 71 - 74 37%
 Tue, Feb 17 184 @Buffalo L 70 - 80 18%
 Sat, Feb 21 214 Ohio L 73 - 76 41%
 Tue, Feb 24 165 @Toledo L 71 - 82 15%
 Sat, Feb 28 294 Ball St. W 70 - 68 57%
 Tue, Mar 3 142 Kent St. L 75 - 82 26%
 Fri, Mar 6 62 @Akron L 70 - 91 3%
Totals 8 - 20 5 - 13 -9 -6 D+ C- F -3 D+ D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 1.9 0.1 3.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 4.9 1.0 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 1.3 8.7 4.7 0.2 14.8 9th
10th 0.3 8.3 9.9 1.0 0.0 19.4 10th
11th 0.0 5.8 13.7 3.5 0.0 23.0 11th
12th 2.4 11.8 5.5 0.2 19.9 12th
13th 5.2 4.5 0.5 10.2 13th
Total 7.7 22.3 29.3 23.4 11.9 4.1 1.1 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.1% 0.1
9-9 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
8-10 4.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.1
7-11 11.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.9
6-12 23.4% 23.4
5-13 29.3% 29.3
4-14 22.3% 22.3
3-15 7.7% 7.7
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.8%