Alabama A&M
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.1 #300
Expected Predictive Rating -7.7 #289
Pace 65.7 #279
Improvement -3.4 #328

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #299 F D+ C B- D
Defense #279 D C D+ C- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #235 0.98 #341 -4.4 #322
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #69 0.73 #211 +1.9 #83
Three Pointers 37% #269 0.94 #272 -3.5 #295
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #338 -5.9 #337
Freethrows 18.8 #110 73% #161 13.8 #115
Second Chance 27.1% #280 1.04 #192 0.28 #262
Turnovers 16.8% #192
Total Offense -4.7 #299

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #115 1.27 #309 -3.6 #302
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #248 0.79 #244 +0.5 #156
Three Pointers 41% #180 1.05 #232 -0.8 #214
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #296 -3.8 #298
Freethrows 19.0 #265 69% #56 13.1 #142
Second Chance 30.0% #155 1.07 #226 0.32 #181
Turnovers 15.3% #259
Total Defense -3.4 #279

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.8% #291 1.0% #258
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.1% #331 6.3% #297
Possession Length 18.5 #303 16.8 #110
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #246 0.22 #308
Improvement +0.6 #145 -4.0 #349

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.6% 12.4% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 39.1% 55.4% 28.1%
.500 or above in Conference 63.4% 79.4% 52.6%
Conference Champion 11.0% 18.2% 6.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four7.8% 9.6% 6.6%
First Round5.5% 7.3% 4.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama St. (Away) - 40.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 20 - 5
Quad 414 - 1014 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 31 @Indiana L 51 - 98 2% -31  0 - 1 -30 -15 F F B -14 F B C+
 Thu, Nov 13 217 Charleston Southern W 68 - 64 42% +5  1 - 1 -2 -6 F A+ F +4 B- D- A+
 Sun, Nov 16 252 Lindenwood W 74 - 65 51% +2  2 - 1 +1 +1 B- C F +0 C B- B
 Fri, Nov 28 33 @Clemson L 56 - 92 2% -25  2 - 2 -19 -7 C- F B+ -11 D- F B
 Sun, Nov 30 268 @Coastal Carolina L 60 - 67 31% -6  2 - 3 -10 -11 F F D +1 A- C+ B
 Wed, Dec 3 226 Tennessee St. W 80 - 53 44% +9  3 - 3 +20 +11 A+ B- F +12 A+ C- A+
 Sun, Dec 7 167 @Lipscomb L 58 - 92 17% -13  3 - 4 -32 -9 F F C -25 F F F
 Mon, Dec 15 279 North Alabama W 68 - 60 56% +0  4 - 4 -2 -5 F C A +4 F A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 17 65 Mississippi L 66 - 80 7% -13  4 - 5 -5 +3 C+ C B -10 F D+ C-
 Sun, Dec 21 267 Chattanooga L 66 - 73 54% -4  4 - 6 -16 -6 F F B+ -11 F D D-
 Sat, Jan 3 327 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 83 - 95 47% -4  4 - 7 0 - 1 -19 +14 D- A+ D+ -35 F F F
 Mon, Jan 5 365 @Mississippi Valley W 71 - 51 88% +12  5 - 7 1 - 1 -1 -9 F D+ F +8 B+ B A+
 Sat, Jan 10 347 Alcorn St. L 62 - 64 75% +4  5 - 8 1 - 2 -17 -12 F F C- -5 C B- F
 Mon, Jan 12 333 Jackson St. W 100 - 91 71% +6  6 - 8 2 - 2 -5 +7 C C C -13 D- C F
 Sat, Jan 17 306 @Alabama St. L 71 - 74 41%
 Sat, Jan 24 334 @Texas Southern L 71 - 72 50%
 Mon, Jan 26 317 @Prairie View L 73 - 75 44%
 Sat, Jan 31 322 Florida A&M W 75 - 70 66%
 Mon, Feb 2 272 Bethune-Cookman W 73 - 72 54%
 Sat, Feb 7 263 @Southern L 71 - 76 31%
 Mon, Feb 9 269 @Grambling St. L 68 - 73 33%
 Sat, Feb 14 365 Mississippi Valley W 78 - 59 96%
 Mon, Feb 16 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 78 - 73 68%
 Thu, Feb 19 322 @Florida A&M L 72 - 73 45%
 Sat, Feb 21 272 @Bethune-Cookman L 70 - 75 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 306 Alabama St. W 74 - 71 62%
 Tue, Mar 3 269 Grambling St. W 71 - 70 54%
 Thu, Mar 5 263 Southern W 74 - 73 52%
Totals 13 - 15 9 - 9 -8 -5 F D+ C -3 D C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 3.7 3.8 1.9 0.5 0.1 11.0 1st
2nd 0.5 4.5 4.0 0.8 0.1 9.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.5 5.4 0.9 0.1 9.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 7.0 1.9 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.1 4.6 4.9 0.2 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 7.3 1.1 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 5.3 4.0 0.1 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 2.7 5.9 0.6 9.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 5.0 2.3 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 3.1 2.7 0.3 7.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.9 6.2 11.0 15.4 17.5 17.1 13.1 8.6 4.6 2.0 0.5 0.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
14-4 96.0% 1.9    1.7 0.2
13-5 82.0% 3.8    2.3 1.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 42.9% 3.7    0.8 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
11-7 7.7% 1.0    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.0% 11.0 5.5 3.4 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.5% 34.0% 34.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4
14-4 2.0% 26.3% 26.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5
13-5 4.6% 23.7% 23.7% 15.9 0.1 1.0 3.5
12-6 8.6% 18.0% 18.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5 7.0
11-7 13.1% 15.7% 15.7% 16.0 0.0 2.0 11.0
10-8 17.1% 12.7% 12.7% 16.0 0.0 2.2 14.9
9-9 17.5% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.0 1.5 16.0
8-10 15.4% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.5 14.9
7-11 11.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.0
6-12 6.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.2
5-13 2.9% 2.9
4-14 0.9% 0.9
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 16.0 90.4 0.0%