American
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#283
Expected Predictive Rating-1.9#201
Pace74.3#74
Improvement-1.1#275

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#274
First Shot+0.7#151
After Offensive Rebound-4.6#357
Layup/Dunks+1.6#125
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#307
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#101
Freethrows-0.9#236
Improvement-0.6#244

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#263
First Shot-2.1#248
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#237
Layups/Dunks-2.2#264
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#98
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#113
Freethrows-2.8#322
Improvement-0.6#244
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.3% 8.5% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 37.4% 44.4% 22.7%
.500 or above in Conference 55.8% 60.2% 46.6%
Conference Champion 7.6% 9.0% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 8.9% 7.2% 12.5%
First Four2.7% 2.8% 2.5%
First Round5.9% 7.0% 3.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maine (Home) - 67.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 8
Quad 413 - 914 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 37 @Wake Forest L 74-88 3%     0 - 1 +1.2 +4.0 -1.8
  Sun, Nov 9 223 Penn W 84-78 50%     1 - 1 -0.8 -1.5 +0.1
  Wed, Nov 12 62 @George Washington L 67-107 5%     1 - 2 -28.2 -8.8 -16.4
  Tue, Nov 18 120 @Rutgers L 71-80 12%     1 - 3 -3.1 +1.5 -4.5
  Fri, Nov 28 321 Maine W 71-66 68%    
  Sat, Nov 29 177 Siena L 72-74 42%    
  Sun, Nov 30 260 Longwood W 79-77 56%    
  Wed, Dec 3 262 Drexel W 72-70 56%    
  Sat, Dec 6 339 Maryland Eastern Shore W 70-63 75%    
  Thu, Dec 18 53 @Virginia Commonwealth L 66-86 4%    
  Mon, Dec 22 39 @Virginia L 64-86 3%    
  Wed, Dec 31 301 Loyola Maryland W 75-71 64%    
  Sat, Jan 3 227 @Boston University L 71-77 30%    
  Wed, Jan 7 182 @Colgate L 71-79 24%    
  Sat, Jan 10 330 Holy Cross W 76-70 71%    
  Mon, Jan 12 159 Navy L 72-75 39%    
  Sun, Jan 18 346 @Army W 77-75 57%    
  Wed, Jan 21 182 Colgate L 74-76 42%    
  Sat, Jan 24 330 @Holy Cross W 74-73 50%    
  Wed, Jan 28 301 @Loyola Maryland L 72-74 43%    
  Sat, Jan 31 327 Lafayette W 77-71 70%    
  Wed, Feb 4 284 Bucknell W 76-73 60%    
  Sat, Feb 7 159 @Navy L 69-78 21%    
  Wed, Feb 11 312 @Lehigh L 73-75 45%    
  Sat, Feb 14 346 Army W 80-72 75%    
  Wed, Feb 18 284 @Bucknell L 73-76 40%    
  Sat, Feb 21 327 @Lafayette L 74-75 49%    
  Wed, Feb 25 312 Lehigh W 76-72 65%    
  Sat, Feb 28 227 Boston University W 74-73 51%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 1.6 2.2 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 7.6 1st
2nd 0.2 1.9 3.7 3.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.9 3.3 0.9 0.1 12.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.2 5.4 3.1 0.5 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.9 2.9 0.4 0.0 12.6 5th
6th 0.3 2.6 5.6 2.9 0.3 11.7 6th
7th 0.3 2.4 5.1 2.7 0.3 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.9 2.4 0.3 0.0 8.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 1.6 0.9 0.1 5.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.1 6.0 8.3 10.8 11.9 12.7 11.7 10.4 8.4 5.7 3.8 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
16-2 97.3% 0.7    0.7 0.1
15-3 87.8% 1.8    1.4 0.4 0.0
14-4 57.9% 2.2    1.4 0.8 0.1
13-5 28.0% 1.6    0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0
12-6 10.4% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.6% 7.6 4.4 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 58.5% 58.5% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.8% 31.9% 31.9% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-3 2.0% 31.0% 31.0% 14.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.4
14-4 3.8% 23.5% 23.5% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 2.9
13-5 5.7% 17.9% 17.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 4.7
12-6 8.4% 13.7% 13.7% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.7 7.2
11-7 10.4% 11.0% 11.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 9.2
10-8 11.7% 6.6% 6.6% 15.9 0.1 0.7 10.9
9-9 12.7% 5.3% 5.3% 15.9 0.1 0.6 12.0
8-10 11.9% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.4 11.5
7-11 10.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 10.6
6-12 8.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.2
5-13 6.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.0
4-14 4.1% 4.1
3-15 2.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.1
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 4.3 92.7 0.0%