American
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.4 #239
Expected Predictive Rating -2.9 #216
Pace 68.7 #196
Improvement -1.0 #245

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #254 C F B- C- B-
Defense #222 D+ C C+ F C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #228 1.13 #217 -1.6 #237
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #308 0.81 #108 -2.0 #276
Three Pointers 49% #42 1.01 #191 +3.9 #58
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #173 +0.3 #173
Freethrows 15.3 #288 76% #78 11.6 #240
Second Chance 23.7% #342 0.95 #281 0.23 #344
Turnovers 15.6% #116
Total Offense -3.0 #254

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #62 1.29 #316 -5.3 #341
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #165 0.71 #119 +0.3 #173
Three Pointers 36% #308 1.01 #182 +2.6 #91
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #262 -2.5 #261
Freethrows 22.1 #348 72% #174 16.0 #22
Second Chance 31.4% #211 1.00 #124 0.31 #166
Turnovers 17.6% #111
Total Defense -1.5 #222

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #94 0.6% #221
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.7% #186 4.2% #265
Possession Length 18.0 #248 16.3 #39
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #167 0.18 #210
Improvement -1.4 #271 +0.4 #158

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.9% 18.9% 13.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 82.3% 89.3% 70.9%
.500 or above in Conference 90.2% 95.3% 81.9%
Conference Champion 18.5% 23.7% 10.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.1% 1.3%
First Four4.3% 4.0% 4.6%
First Round14.7% 16.9% 11.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Army (Away) - 61.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 21 - 7
Quad 416 - 717 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 57 @Wake Forest L 74 - 88 7% -9  0 - 1 -2 +2 C B- D- -3 B+ F D+
 Sun, Nov 9 206 Penn W 84 - 78 55% +3  1 - 1 +0 -1 B- F D- +1 C- A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 60 @George Washington L 67 - 107 7% -20  1 - 2 -28 -8 C- C- D- -17 F F C
 Tue, Nov 18 124 @Rutgers L 71 - 80 18% -1  1 - 3 -4 +1 F F A+ -5 C F C
 Fri, Nov 28 341 Maine W 74 - 61 82% +12  2 - 3 -1 +3 B F A+ -3 F B- A+
 Sat, Nov 29 177 Siena L 55 - 59 50% -1  2 - 4 -8 -19 F C- F +10 B- A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 270 Longwood W 92 - 66 68% +8  3 - 4 +17 +12 B- B- C- +4 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 238 Drexel W 75 - 73 61% -1  4 - 4 -5 +4 B F A+ -9 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 324 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78 - 60 79% +10  5 - 4 +5 +11 A+ F B -4 F A+ A+
 Thu, Dec 18 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 83 - 105 6% -12  5 - 5 -8 +15 B+ D+ A+ -24 F F C-
 Mon, Dec 22 17 @Virginia L 51 - 95 2% -18  5 - 6 -24 -8 F D+ C -21 F F C
 Wed, Dec 31 336 Loyola Maryland W 84 - 69 82% +10  6 - 6 1 - 0 +1 +6 A F B- -5 F A- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 256 @Boston University W 64 - 62 42% +5  7 - 6 2 - 0 -0 -3 C- F D+ +3 A+ D- F
 Wed, Jan 7 215 @Colgate L 62 - 64 33% +5  7 - 7 2 - 1 -2 -1 A+ F F -1 B+ D- B-
 Sat, Jan 10 310 Holy Cross L 73 - 84 76% -3  7 - 8 2 - 2 -23 -6 F C C -16 F C- F
 Mon, Jan 12 200 Navy W 65 - 51 54% +11  8 - 8 3 - 2 +9 -0 C- F A+ +10 A+ A+ A
 Sun, Jan 18 330 @Army W 76 - 73 62%
 Wed, Jan 21 215 Colgate W 74 - 72 56%
 Sat, Jan 24 310 @Holy Cross W 71 - 70 55%
 Wed, Jan 28 336 @Loyola Maryland W 76 - 72 63%
 Sat, Jan 31 326 Lafayette W 76 - 67 79%
 Wed, Feb 4 318 Bucknell W 74 - 66 77%
 Sat, Feb 7 200 @Navy L 67 - 72 32%
 Wed, Feb 11 313 @Lehigh W 72 - 70 55%
 Sat, Feb 14 330 Army W 79 - 70 80%
 Wed, Feb 18 318 @Bucknell W 71 - 69 58%
 Sun, Feb 22 326 @Lafayette W 73 - 70 60%
 Wed, Feb 25 313 Lehigh W 75 - 67 75%
 Sat, Feb 28 256 Boston University W 75 - 71 64%
Totals 16 - 13 11 - 7 -4 -3 C F B- -1 D+ C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.0 6.0 2.9 0.6 18.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.6 9.8 7.0 2.5 0.2 24.7 2nd
3rd 0.5 5.3 10.0 5.7 1.2 0.1 22.7 3rd
4th 0.2 3.5 7.3 3.6 0.4 0.0 15.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 4.9 2.3 0.2 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.6 1.8 0.2 5.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 6.0 10.8 15.6 18.7 18.6 14.2 8.6 3.1 0.6 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
15-3 94.9% 2.9    2.4 0.5 0.0
14-4 69.8% 6.0    3.7 2.1 0.2
13-5 42.0% 6.0    2.3 2.7 0.9 0.1
12-6 14.4% 2.7    0.4 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.5% 18.5 9.4 6.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.6% 38.1% 38.1% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-3 3.1% 31.8% 31.8% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.0 2.1
14-4 8.6% 28.0% 28.0% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.6 0.5 6.2
13-5 14.2% 26.1% 26.1% 15.5 0.1 1.7 1.9 10.5
12-6 18.6% 18.9% 18.9% 15.7 0.1 1.0 2.4 15.1
11-7 18.7% 14.6% 14.6% 15.8 0.0 0.4 2.3 16.0
10-8 15.6% 11.7% 11.7% 15.9 0.1 1.7 13.8
9-9 10.8% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9 9.8
8-10 6.0% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3 5.6
7-11 2.5% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.1 2.4
6-12 1.0% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.9% 16.9% 0.0% 15.5 83.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.4 4.2 60.4 31.3 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%