Arkansas Pine Bluff
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.3 #327
Expected Predictive Rating -4.5 #237
Pace 77.4 #26
Improvement +3.7 #31

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #298 C- D- D C- C-
Defense #338 D+ D D- F D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #150 1.13 #219 -0.2 #185
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #100 0.69 #260 +0.7 #148
Three Pointers 36% #276 1.03 #159 -2.0 #254
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #216 -1.5 #217
Freethrows 16.0 #259 76% #86 12.1 #216
Second Chance 27.3% #271 0.90 #330 0.24 #317
Turnovers 18.6% #295
Total Offense -4.7 #298

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #87 1.19 #227 -2.8 #276
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #328 0.65 #51 +2.8 #16
Three Pointers 43% #134 1.08 #269 -2.2 #274
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #257 -2.2 #257
Freethrows 22.6 #353 73% #198 16.5 #16
Second Chance 34.4% #310 1.10 #261 0.38 #304
Turnovers 14.3% #314
Total Defense -5.6 #338

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #240 1.9% #335
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.2% #209 2.5% #229
Possession Length 16.4 #95 16.7 #86
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #110 0.15 #94
Improvement +2.6 #42 +1.1 #116

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.1% 7.1% 4.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 9.9% 13.9% 4.1%
.500 or above in Conference 74.0% 83.8% 59.6%
Conference Champion 12.1% 16.8% 5.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four5.4% 6.3% 4.2%
First Round2.9% 3.5% 2.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida A&M (Home) - 59.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 31 - 31 - 10
Quad 411 - 812 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 46 @Washington L 50 - 94 2% -21  0 - 1 -30 -19 F F F -9 D F A
 Thu, Nov 6 233 @Portland L 74 - 83 19% -14  0 - 2 -10 -10 F C- F +2 B- A- B+
 Sat, Nov 8 130 @Loyola Marymount L 72 - 94 9% -9  0 - 3 -17 +3 A- F D- -20 F C+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 54 @Oklahoma L 69 - 95 3% -10  0 - 4 -13 -0 D+ D F -13 C F C
 Sat, Nov 15 9 @Vanderbilt L 75 - 104 1% -16  0 - 5 -6 +8 B- D+ C+ -12 A+ F F
 Tue, Nov 18 30 @SMU L 60 - 106 1% -25  0 - 6 -28 -15 D- F D- -8 F A+ C
 Thu, Nov 20 171 @Marshall L 70 - 98 13% -5  0 - 7 -26 -8 F D+ F -15 F A+ F
 Sun, Nov 23 84 @Miami (OH) L 84 - 111 4% -20  0 - 8 -17 +3 F C A- -16 F C F
 Wed, Dec 3 160 @Illinois-Chicago W 63 - 62 11% +5  1 - 8 +4 -9 C D D- +13 A+ A- A+
 Sat, Dec 6 98 @DePaul L 72 - 76 5% +1  1 - 9 +4 +3 A+ F F +2 A+ F F
 Wed, Dec 10 93 @Tulsa L 84 - 117 5% -16  1 - 10 -24 +4 A+ C- F -25 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 300 Alabama A&M W 95 - 83 53% +4  2 - 10 1 - 0 +1 +27 A+ A+ C -24 D+ F D+
 Mon, Jan 5 306 Alabama St. W 90 - 79 55% +6  3 - 10 2 - 0 -0 +5 B F F -6 C- C D-
 Sat, Jan 10 334 @Texas Southern W 74 - 66 41% +8  4 - 10 3 - 0 +0 -0 B F C+ +0 B+ C+ D-
 Mon, Jan 12 317 @Prairie View L 61 - 73 35% -6  4 - 11 3 - 1 -18 -13 F F F -5 D- C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 322 Florida A&M W 80 - 78 59%
 Mon, Jan 19 272 Bethune-Cookman L 79 - 80 47%
 Sat, Jan 24 263 @Southern L 77 - 84 24%
 Mon, Jan 26 269 @Grambling St. L 74 - 81 25%
 Sat, Jan 31 365 @Mississippi Valley W 80 - 70 83%
 Sat, Feb 7 347 Alcorn St. W 83 - 78 68%
 Mon, Feb 9 333 Jackson St. W 83 - 80 63%
 Sat, Feb 14 306 @Alabama St. L 78 - 83 33%
 Mon, Feb 16 300 @Alabama A&M L 73 - 78 32%
 Sat, Feb 21 334 Texas Southern W 81 - 77 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 317 Prairie View W 83 - 81 57%
 Sat, Feb 28 365 Mississippi Valley W 83 - 67 93%
 Tue, Mar 3 333 @Jackson St. L 80 - 83 41%
 Thu, Mar 5 347 @Alcorn St. L 80 - 81 46%
Totals 11 - 18 10 - 7 -10 -5 C- D- D -6 D+ D D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.1 4.2 4.4 1.9 0.4 0.1 12.1 1st
2nd 0.6 5.4 5.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 12.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.7 6.9 1.7 0.1 12.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 7.9 3.0 0.1 12.0 4th
5th 0.1 5.0 5.6 0.3 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 7.5 1.4 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.3 4.6 3.9 0.1 8.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 5.2 0.7 7.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.4 1.9 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.2 0.3 4.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.3 2.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.4 7.9 13.4 18.2 19.3 16.7 11.6 5.7 2.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 97.8% 0.4    0.4 0.0
14-4 94.4% 1.9    1.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 77.0% 4.4    2.4 1.6 0.4 0.0
12-6 36.3% 4.2    0.9 1.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 6.4% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.1% 12.1 5.4 3.8 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 23.6% 23.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3
14-4 2.1% 14.6% 14.6% 15.9 0.0 0.3 1.8
13-5 5.7% 16.2% 16.2% 16.0 0.0 0.9 4.8
12-6 11.6% 10.2% 10.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2 10.4
11-7 16.7% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.0 1.3 15.3
10-8 19.3% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 1.2 18.1
9-9 18.2% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.7 17.5
8-10 13.4% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 13.2
7-11 7.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.9
6-12 3.4% 3.4
5-13 1.1% 1.1
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 16.0 93.9 0.0%