Army
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.6#346
Expected Predictive Rating-13.0#336
Pace69.0#208
Improvement-1.4#288

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#311
First Shot-3.6#280
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#271
Layup/Dunks-3.0#283
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#133
Freethrows+0.0#176
Improvement-0.9#270

Defense
Total Defense-6.6#353
First Shot-6.1#346
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#217
Layups/Dunks-3.6#302
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#220
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#180
Freethrows-2.3#309
Improvement-0.4#239
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.4% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 3.0% 4.7% 1.3%
.500 or above in Conference 15.9% 19.4% 12.5%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.8% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 36.4% 31.6% 41.2%
First Four1.0% 1.2% 0.7%
First Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Home) - 49.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 71 - 9
Quad 48 - 139 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 158 @St. Thomas L 76-83 10%     0 - 1 -4.4 +6.0 -10.5
  Tue, Nov 11 2 Duke L 59-114 1%     0 - 2 -35.2 -9.8 -20.4
  Sat, Nov 15 179 Harvard L 52-75 25%     0 - 3 -27.4 -18.1 -11.7
  Tue, Nov 18 161 @Cornell L 73-86 10%     0 - 4 -10.6 -8.3 -0.9
  Fri, Nov 21 154 @Marist L 65-76 10%     0 - 5 -8.1 +1.9 -10.6
  Tue, Nov 25 308 East Texas A&M L 67-84 36%     0 - 6 -25.0 -6.6 -18.6
  Wed, Nov 26 362 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 81-73 49%     1 - 6 -3.4 +5.3 -8.3
  Sat, Nov 29 318 Manhattan L 78-79 50%    
  Tue, Dec 2 62 George Washington L 72-89 5%    
  Fri, Dec 12 289 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 72-79 25%    
  Tue, Dec 23 352 Binghamton W 73-69 65%    
  Wed, Dec 31 312 @Lehigh L 70-76 28%    
  Sat, Jan 3 182 Colgate L 70-77 26%    
  Wed, Jan 7 301 Loyola Maryland L 72-73 47%    
  Sat, Jan 10 227 @Boston University L 67-78 17%    
  Wed, Jan 14 330 @Holy Cross L 70-75 33%    
  Sun, Jan 18 283 American L 75-77 43%    
  Wed, Jan 21 284 @Bucknell L 69-77 24%    
  Sat, Jan 24 159 @Navy L 65-79 10%    
  Wed, Jan 28 312 Lehigh L 72-73 48%    
  Sat, Jan 31 330 Holy Cross W 73-72 54%    
  Wed, Feb 4 182 @Colgate L 67-80 13%    
  Sat, Feb 7 327 Lafayette W 74-73 53%    
  Wed, Feb 11 227 Boston University L 70-75 35%    
  Sat, Feb 14 283 @American L 72-80 25%    
  Wed, Feb 18 301 @Loyola Maryland L 69-76 28%    
  Sat, Feb 21 159 Navy L 68-76 24%    
  Wed, Feb 25 284 Bucknell L 72-74 43%    
  Sat, Feb 28 327 @Lafayette L 71-76 33%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 1st
2nd 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 3.2 3rd
4th 0.3 1.6 2.1 0.6 0.1 4.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.2 1.0 0.1 7.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.4 1.6 0.1 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.6 5.8 2.2 0.2 12.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 4.3 6.5 3.2 0.3 15.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 6.4 7.6 3.2 0.4 0.0 20.2 9th
10th 0.7 2.6 5.8 7.6 6.0 2.5 0.4 25.6 10th
Total 0.7 2.7 6.1 9.9 13.5 15.0 14.0 12.5 9.7 6.9 4.5 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 58.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 34.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 11.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 3.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 36.4% 36.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 9.3% 9.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.6% 11.9% 11.9% 16.0 0.1 0.5
12-6 1.3% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.1 1.2
11-7 2.5% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.2 2.3
10-8 4.5% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 4.3
9-9 6.9% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.2 6.7
8-10 9.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 9.5
7-11 12.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 12.4
6-12 14.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.0
5-13 15.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 15.0
4-14 13.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.4
3-15 9.9% 9.9
2-16 6.1% 6.1
1-17 2.7% 2.7
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.1 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%