Army
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.6 #330
Expected Predictive Rating -9.1 #312
Pace 68.7 #198
Improvement +0.5 #153

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #281 D+ D C C- B
Defense #346 D+ D- F C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #282 1.08 #277 -3.6 #300
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% #344 0.55 #358 -4.8 #357
Three Pointers 55% #4 0.94 #264 +5.1 #35
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #274 -3.4 #276
Freethrows 16.4 #239 70% #252 11.6 #243
Second Chance 27.9% #252 0.93 #306 0.26 #293
Turnovers 16.8% #190
Total Offense -4.0 #281

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #177 1.34 #347 -3.8 #307
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #232 0.64 #40 +1.7 #65
Three Pointers 43% #139 0.99 #158 -0.4 #197
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #259 -2.4 #260
Freethrows 17.2 #183 76% #323 13.1 #147
Second Chance 30.0% #153 1.28 #357 0.38 #314
Turnovers 12.5% #357
Total Defense -6.5 #346

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #60 0.6% #217
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.4% #309 4.0% #257
Possession Length 18.4 #289 16.7 #91
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #335 0.19 #234
Improvement +1.8 #79 -1.4 #270

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.8% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 3.8% 7.7% 1.9%
.500 or above in Conference 15.2% 27.2% 9.5%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 33.3% 18.3% 40.5%
First Four1.7% 2.4% 1.4%
First Round1.0% 1.5% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Holy Cross (Away) - 32.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 51 - 8
Quad 410 - 1211 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 128 @St. Thomas L 76 - 83 8% -11  0 - 1 -2 +6 B- F B+ -8 B+ F F
 Tue, Nov 11 7 Duke L 59 - 114 1% -23  0 - 2 -37 -11 F C D- -21 F F F
 Sat, Nov 15 162 Harvard L 52 - 75 24% -9  0 - 3 -26 -17 F D+ F -12 F B C
 Tue, Nov 18 193 @Cornell L 73 - 86 14% -6  0 - 4 -12 -14 F F B- +3 C A- C+
 Fri, Nov 21 129 @Marist L 65 - 76 8% -4  0 - 5 -6 +3 B F B- -10 D+ F F
 Tue, Nov 25 321 East Texas A&M L 67 - 84 46% -10  0 - 6 -27 -7 F F C- -20 F D+ D
 Wed, Nov 26 351 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 81 - 73 48% +2  1 - 6 -2 +7 F B- A -9 A+ F F
 Sat, Nov 29 312 Manhattan W 81 - 78 OT 55% +3  2 - 6 -9 -5 C F F -4 A- F D-
 Tue, Dec 2 60 George Washington L 70 - 84 7% -5  2 - 7 -8 -1 A F B- -8 A+ F C
 Fri, Dec 12 277 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 63 - 60 25% +5  3 - 7 -1 -9 F F D +9 B- A F
 Tue, Dec 23 359 Binghamton W 95 - 85 OT 76% +4  4 - 7 -8 +3 B+ C- D- -13 F B F
 Wed, Dec 31 313 @Lehigh W 85 - 78 OT 33% +3  5 - 7 1 - 0 +1 +3 C- A- F -2 C- C F
 Sat, Jan 3 215 Colgate L 69 - 76 33% -3  5 - 8 1 - 1 -13 +2 C- A B- -16 D+ F F
 Wed, Jan 7 336 Loyola Maryland L 76 - 84 OT 63% -3  5 - 9 1 - 2 -22 -8 F D- A+ -13 C F F
 Sat, Jan 10 256 @Boston University L 91 - 100 22% -8  5 - 10 1 - 3 -11 +14 C+ B- B -26 F C- D+
 Wed, Jan 14 310 @Holy Cross L 69 - 74 32%
 Sun, Jan 18 239 American L 73 - 76 38%
 Wed, Jan 21 318 @Bucknell L 70 - 74 34%
 Sat, Jan 24 200 @Navy L 66 - 77 14%
 Wed, Jan 28 313 Lehigh W 74 - 73 55%
 Sat, Jan 31 310 Holy Cross W 72 - 71 54%
 Wed, Feb 4 215 @Colgate L 69 - 80 16%
 Sat, Feb 7 326 Lafayette W 75 - 72 59%
 Wed, Feb 11 256 Boston University L 73 - 75 42%
 Sat, Feb 14 239 @American L 70 - 79 20%
 Wed, Feb 18 336 @Loyola Maryland L 75 - 78 40%
 Sat, Feb 21 200 Navy L 69 - 74 32%
 Wed, Feb 25 318 Bucknell W 73 - 71 56%
 Sat, Feb 28 326 @Lafayette L 72 - 75 37%
Totals 10 - 19 6 - 12 -11 -4 D+ D C -7 D+ D- F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 4.9 4th
5th 0.3 3.0 4.0 0.9 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.2 3.1 6.2 1.7 0.1 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 3.1 7.8 3.2 0.1 14.3 7th
8th 0.4 3.2 8.2 4.9 0.4 17.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.9 8.4 5.9 0.7 0.0 19.7 9th
10th 0.4 2.2 5.6 7.4 4.4 0.7 0.0 20.8 10th
Total 0.4 2.2 6.4 11.6 16.1 18.2 16.8 13.0 8.4 4.2 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 88.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 60.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 18.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 2.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.2% 15.2% 15.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.6% 6.5% 6.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-7 1.9% 9.2% 9.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.7
10-8 4.2% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3 3.9
9-9 8.4% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.3 8.0
8-10 13.0% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.4 12.6
7-11 16.8% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.3 16.5
6-12 18.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 18.0
5-13 16.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 16.0
4-14 11.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.6
3-15 6.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.4
2-16 2.2% 2.2
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 16.0 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%