Baylor
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.9#28
Expected Predictive Rating+18.0#18
Pace70.9#151
Improvement+0.1#169

Offense
Total Offense+10.0#14
First Shot+7.4#26
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#50
Layup/Dunks-4.0#309
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#13
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#96
Freethrows+3.7#26
Improvement+1.2#67

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#72
First Shot+1.4#125
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#47
Layups/Dunks+7.3#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-8.1#365
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#205
Freethrows+2.8#44
Improvement-1.1#286
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.3% 1.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 4.5% 4.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 18.6% 18.9% 4.9%
Top 6 Seed 39.4% 39.7% 16.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 76.6% 77.0% 52.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75.6% 76.0% 52.2%
Average Seed 6.5 6.4 7.6
.500 or above 92.3% 92.6% 70.8%
.500 or above in Conference 64.2% 64.6% 42.6%
Conference Champion 3.9% 3.9% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.6% 6.0%
First Four5.6% 5.6% 7.8%
First Round74.1% 74.5% 49.2%
Second Round49.5% 49.8% 29.2%
Sweet Sixteen21.1% 21.3% 8.0%
Elite Eight8.6% 8.6% 3.3%
Final Four3.4% 3.4% 0.8%
Championship Game1.3% 1.3% 0.2%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacramento St. (Home) - 98.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 10
Quad 26 - 112 - 11
Quad 33 - 015 - 11
Quad 45 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 202 UT Rio Grande Valley W 96-81 95%     1 - 0 +9.3 +10.1 -2.3
  Sun, Nov 9 48 Washington W 78-69 73%     2 - 0 +16.6 +6.9 +9.6
  Fri, Nov 14 195 Tarleton St. W 94-81 95%     3 - 0 +7.8 +14.7 -7.5
  Mon, Nov 24 45 Creighton W 81-74 61%     4 - 0 +18.1 +15.7 +2.7
  Tue, Nov 25 15 St. John's L 81-96 36%     4 - 1 +2.7 +12.8 -9.7
  Wed, Nov 26 57 San Diego St. W 91-81 66%     5 - 1 +19.5 +21.1 -1.7
  Tue, Dec 2 272 Sacramento St. W 92-69 98%    
  Sat, Dec 6 70 @Memphis W 81-78 61%    
  Wed, Dec 10 233 Norfolk St. W 81-60 97%    
  Fri, Dec 19 338 Alcorn St. W 90-62 99%    
  Sun, Dec 21 197 Southern W 90-71 96%    
  Sat, Jan 3 51 @TCU W 76-75 52%    
  Wed, Jan 7 4 Iowa St. L 76-79 40%    
  Sat, Jan 10 5 Houston L 69-72 40%    
  Tue, Jan 13 46 @Oklahoma St. L 85-86 49%    
  Fri, Jan 16 18 @Kansas L 74-79 31%    
  Tue, Jan 20 24 Texas Tech W 79-77 58%    
  Sat, Jan 24 51 TCU W 79-72 72%    
  Wed, Jan 28 65 @Cincinnati W 78-76 59%    
  Sat, Jan 31 71 @West Virginia W 73-70 61%    
  Wed, Feb 4 72 Colorado W 85-76 79%    
  Sat, Feb 7 4 @Iowa St. L 73-82 21%    
  Tue, Feb 10 7 BYU L 77-80 40%    
  Sat, Feb 14 9 Louisville L 79-84 33%    
  Tue, Feb 17 54 @Kansas St. W 86-85 54%    
  Sat, Feb 21 83 Arizona St. W 85-75 81%    
  Tue, Feb 24 11 Arizona L 79-81 43%    
  Sat, Feb 28 68 @Central Florida W 85-82 60%    
  Wed, Mar 4 5 @Houston L 66-75 22%    
  Sat, Mar 7 125 Utah W 86-72 90%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 3.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.2 0.7 0.1 5.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.2 0.8 0.1 7.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.7 4.4 1.4 0.1 8.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 5.4 2.2 0.2 10.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 5.4 3.2 0.3 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.2 4.4 0.7 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.9 4.8 1.5 0.1 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 4.5 2.1 0.2 8.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 3.1 3.0 0.5 0.0 7.0 10th
11th 0.1 1.7 3.5 0.8 0.0 6.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 2.6 1.3 0.1 4.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.4 0.2 3.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.1 6.5 9.7 12.1 13.3 14.1 12.4 9.9 7.0 4.2 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 90.5% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
15-3 63.5% 1.4    0.6 0.6 0.2
14-4 26.7% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 4.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 1.8 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 38.6% 61.4% 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.9% 100.0% 20.1% 79.9% 1.8 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.2% 100.0% 21.0% 79.0% 2.4 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.2% 100.0% 16.1% 83.9% 3.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 7.0% 100.0% 10.4% 89.6% 3.9 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.3 1.4 0.4 0.2 100.0%
12-6 9.9% 99.9% 7.3% 92.6% 4.8 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.4 3.2 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 12.4% 99.7% 4.4% 95.3% 5.8 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.0 3.5 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
10-8 14.1% 98.9% 2.2% 96.8% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.2 3.9 2.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 98.9%
9-9 13.3% 93.6% 1.8% 91.8% 8.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.5 3.4 2.8 1.4 0.4 0.9 93.5%
8-10 12.1% 73.0% 1.0% 72.0% 9.4 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.2 2.5 2.0 0.1 3.3 72.8%
7-11 9.7% 38.4% 0.3% 38.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 0.2 6.0 38.2%
6-12 6.5% 13.6% 0.5% 13.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 5.6 13.2%
5-13 4.1% 1.5% 1.5% 11.1 0.1 0.0 4.1 1.5%
4-14 2.1% 2.1
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 76.6% 4.1% 72.5% 6.5 1.3 3.2 5.9 8.2 10.0 10.7 10.5 8.9 7.1 5.4 4.9 0.4 23.4 75.6%