Baylor
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.6 #37
Expected Predictive Rating +12.4 #44
Pace 69.8 #160
Improvement -0.5 #215

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #16 B+ A+ A B+ F
Defense #70 B C+ C B A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #348 1.35 #23 -1.9 #244
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #26 0.86 #55 +5.6 #7
Three Pointers 39% #222 1.11 #57 +0.9 #144
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #60 +4.6 #59
Freethrows 20.1 #58 75% #115 15.0 #52
Second Chance 41.3% #4 1.09 #132 0.45 #19
Turnovers 13.3% #23
Total Offense +9.5 #16

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 24% #363 1.23 #268 +7.7 #7
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% #1 0.78 #226 -7.2 #365
Three Pointers 38% #255 0.93 #75 +3.1 #64
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #68 +3.6 #68
Freethrows 14.6 #54 74% #233 10.8 #295
Second Chance 31.3% #206 0.98 #96 0.31 #145
Turnovers 16.2% #203
Total Defense +4.1 #70

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.8% #350 -6.7% #1
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 13.2% #21 -0.5% #173
Possession Length 16.6 #114 17.6 #233
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #30 0.19 #227
Improvement -2.3 #312 +1.8 #84

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.4% 5.7% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 14.0% 26.7% 9.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.8% 80.4% 54.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 61.4% 80.1% 54.3%
Average Seed 8.1 7.5 8.5
.500 or above 89.1% 96.4% 86.3%
.500 or above in Conference 42.4% 64.8% 33.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.3% 2.1%
First Four9.9% 7.4% 10.8%
First Round57.4% 77.0% 50.0%
Second Round32.7% 47.0% 27.2%
Sweet Sixteen10.0% 15.3% 7.9%
Elite Eight3.8% 5.7% 3.0%
Final Four1.2% 1.9% 0.9%
Championship Game0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Kansas (Away) - 27.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 11
Quad 25 - 211 - 13
Quad 32 - 013 - 13
Quad 46 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 235 UT Rio Grande Valley W 96 - 81 96% +6  1 - 0 +8 +12 A+ D B+ -5 F A+ D
 Sun, Nov 9 46 Washington W 78 - 69 70% +4  2 - 0 +17 +7 A D A+ +10 A- A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 14 173 Tarleton St. W 94 - 81 94% +10  3 - 0 +9 +16 A- A+ B -7 F F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 43 Creighton W 81 - 74 56% +5  4 - 0 +19 +15 D- A+ C +4 C B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 15 St. John's L 81 - 96 36% -12  4 - 1 +2 +14 C A- A+ -12 F D- C
 Wed, Nov 26 52 San Diego St. W 91 - 81 62% +4  5 - 1 +20 +24 A+ C+ A+ -3 C- A+ D-
 Tue, Dec 2 307 Sacramento St. W 110 - 88 98% +7  6 - 1 +10 +23 A+ A+ C -14 C+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 6 83 @Memphis L 71 - 78 64% -2  6 - 2 +3 +5 D- B B -2 A+ D+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 289 Norfolk St. W 97 - 67 98% +16  7 - 2 +20 +14 A- B+ C +4 A A- D
 Fri, Dec 19 347 Alcorn St. W 113 - 56 99% +29  8 - 2 +42 +22 A+ D+ C +14 A+ C+ D-
 Sun, Dec 21 263 Southern W 111 - 67 97% +15  9 - 2 +35 +35 A+ A+ A+ -0 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 45 @TCU L 63 - 69 46% -7  9 - 3 0 - 1 +9 +5 F A+ A +3 A+ A C+
 Wed, Jan 7 6 Iowa St. L 60 - 70 34% -3  9 - 4 0 - 2 +8 -2 F A+ A+ +10 A+ B A-
 Sat, Jan 10 5 Houston L 55 - 77 33% -11  9 - 5 0 - 3 -4 -1 C+ B D+ -6 B C F
 Tue, Jan 13 62 @Oklahoma St. W 94 - 79 56% +13  10 - 5 1 - 3 +27 +28 A+ A+ C- -1 B- D+ C+
 Fri, Jan 16 18 @Kansas L 74 - 80 27%
 Tue, Jan 20 21 Texas Tech W 78 - 77 50%
 Sat, Jan 24 45 TCU W 78 - 73 68%
 Wed, Jan 28 56 @Cincinnati W 74 - 73 54%
 Sat, Jan 31 59 @West Virginia W 73 - 72 55%
 Wed, Feb 4 73 Colorado W 85 - 76 80%
 Sat, Feb 7 6 @Iowa St. L 72 - 82 17%
 Tue, Feb 10 11 BYU L 79 - 82 39%
 Sat, Feb 14 19 Louisville L 80 - 83 40%
 Tue, Feb 17 74 @Kansas St. W 85 - 82 60%
 Sat, Feb 21 82 Arizona St. W 86 - 76 82%
 Tue, Feb 24 2 Arizona L 77 - 85 24%
 Sat, Feb 28 50 @Central Florida W 82 - 81 51%
 Wed, Mar 4 5 @Houston L 66 - 76 17%
 Sat, Mar 7 113 Utah W 87 - 74 88%
Totals 17 - 13 8 - 10 +14 +10 B+ A+ A +4 B C+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 3rd
4th 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.3 3.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 3.4 0.9 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.2 2.8 5.5 2.1 0.2 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 7.0 3.9 0.4 13.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 5.9 5.9 1.1 0.0 13.5 8th
9th 0.1 3.6 7.5 2.0 0.1 13.3 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 6.8 3.5 0.2 0.0 11.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 4.0 4.6 0.4 0.0 9.2 11th
12th 0.1 1.5 4.4 1.2 0.0 7.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.5 1.9 0.1 4.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.7 0.3 3.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 6.2 11.8 16.9 19.4 18.1 12.9 7.2 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 75.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 25.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 1.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.2% 100.0% 17.9% 82.1% 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.9% 100.0% 9.8% 90.2% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 3.0% 100.0% 4.6% 95.4% 5.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 7.2% 99.9% 2.9% 97.0% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.4 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 12.9% 98.7% 2.1% 96.6% 7.2 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.7 4.0 3.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.2 98.7%
9-9 18.1% 93.8% 1.2% 92.5% 8.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.3 4.9 4.2 2.3 0.6 1.1 93.7%
8-10 19.4% 70.8% 0.7% 70.2% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.0 4.4 3.9 0.1 5.6 70.6%
7-11 16.9% 35.0% 0.3% 34.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.6 0.2 11.0 34.8%
6-12 11.8% 8.8% 0.2% 8.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.1 10.7 8.6%
5-13 6.2% 1.6% 0.2% 1.4% 10.9 0.0 0.1 6.1 1.4%
4-14 2.6% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 2.6 0.2%
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 61.8% 1.2% 60.6% 8.1 38.2 61.4%