Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.7#324
Expected Predictive Rating-7.8#280
Pace86.2#3
Improvement+0.3#150

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#290
First Shot-0.1#175
After Offensive Rebound-4.4#354
Layup/Dunks+1.8#115
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#293
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#216
Freethrows+0.9#129
Improvement+2.0#30

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#321
First Shot-3.7#301
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#225
Layups/Dunks+0.7#152
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#84
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#275
Freethrows-3.5#339
Improvement-1.7#315
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 1.3% 2.2% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 9.1% 11.9% 6.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 38.5% 33.7% 43.1%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Home) - 49.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 92 - 15
Quad 45 - 78 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 117 @Wyoming L 82-92 9%     0 - 1 -3.9 -0.6 -1.6
  Mon, Nov 10 67 @California L 65-93 4%     0 - 2 -16.7 -9.2 -4.8
  Sat, Nov 15 144 Pacific L 73-85 27%     0 - 3 -14.5 -8.7 -4.5
  Fri, Nov 21 274 @Portland L 85-103 30%     0 - 4 -21.2 +1.9 -21.1
  Sat, Nov 22 158 St. Thomas W 88-80 21%     1 - 4 +7.6 +7.7 -0.7
  Sun, Nov 23 145 Northern Colorado L 93-97 20%     1 - 5 -3.7 +7.6 -10.8
  Sat, Nov 29 264 Pepperdine L 80-81 49%    
  Thu, Dec 4 245 Cal Poly L 90-91 46%    
  Sun, Dec 7 110 @Hawaii L 73-88 8%    
  Sat, Dec 13 300 @Denver L 81-85 36%    
  Sun, Dec 21 46 @Oklahoma St. L 79-102 2%    
  Sun, Dec 28 42 @SMU L 75-99 2%    
  Thu, Jan 1 141 UC Santa Barbara L 77-84 27%    
  Sat, Jan 3 133 UC Irvine L 73-81 24%    
  Thu, Jan 8 96 @UC San Diego L 74-91 6%    
  Sat, Jan 10 220 Cal St. Northridge L 86-88 43%    
  Thu, Jan 15 178 @UC Davis L 73-83 17%    
  Sat, Jan 17 257 @UC Riverside L 77-83 29%    
  Thu, Jan 22 298 Long Beach St. W 82-80 56%    
  Sat, Jan 24 245 @Cal Poly L 87-94 27%    
  Sat, Jan 31 141 @UC Santa Barbara L 74-87 13%    
  Thu, Feb 5 257 UC Riverside L 79-80 48%    
  Sat, Feb 7 271 Cal St. Bakersfield W 82-81 51%    
  Thu, Feb 12 298 @Long Beach St. L 79-83 35%    
  Sat, Feb 14 133 @UC Irvine L 70-84 12%    
  Thu, Feb 19 178 UC Davis L 76-80 35%    
  Sat, Feb 21 271 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 79-85 31%    
  Sat, Feb 28 110 Hawaii L 76-85 21%    
  Thu, Mar 5 96 UC San Diego L 77-88 17%    
  Sat, Mar 7 220 @Cal St. Northridge L 83-91 24%    
Projected Record 8 - 22 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.8 5.0 3.2 0.5 0.0 12.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 4.0 6.5 3.5 0.7 0.0 15.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.8 6.5 7.5 3.8 0.8 0.0 21.9 10th
11th 0.9 3.5 6.4 8.0 5.8 2.4 0.4 0.0 27.5 11th
Total 0.9 3.5 7.0 10.9 13.4 14.4 13.8 11.5 9.1 6.4 4.1 2.4 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 42.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 20.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 10.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0
12-8 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 11.8% 11.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.3% 6.9% 6.9% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-7 0.8% 2.2% 2.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.7
12-8 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.4
11-9 2.4% 0.8% 0.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.4
10-10 4.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.1
9-11 6.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.4
8-12 9.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.1
7-13 11.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.5
6-14 13.8% 13.8
5-15 14.4% 14.4
4-16 13.4% 13.4
3-17 10.9% 10.9
2-18 7.0% 7.0
1-19 3.5% 3.5
0-20 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%