Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -2.5 205
Results Rating -0.8 174
Consistency 0.16 230
Pace 79.5 6
Improvement +1.3 137

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 194 C+ D B- C+ C
Defense C- 218 D C B- C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 220 C 59% 153 -0.5 199
2 Pt. Jumpers 37% 184 C- 37% 206 -0.2 186
Three Pointers 42% 154 B- 36% 114 +1.7 123
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 201 C+ +1.0 126
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.04 144
Second Chance D 25.1% 325 D+ 0.98 265 D 0.24 321
Opponents' Steals B- 8.7% 111
Other Turnovers C+ 7.0% 144
Turnovers B- 15.7% 111
Freethrows C+ 0.32 136 C- 72% 212 C+ 0.23 147
Total Offense C- -1.0 194

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 40% 306 C 11.2% 197
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 35% 54 C+ 4.4% 136
Three Pointers B 91% 40 B 0.4% 68
Total C 56% 167 C+ 5.3% 139

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 289 D- 65% 337 +0.2 186
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 315 D 42% 300 -1.2 96
Three Pointers 49% 10 C- 35% 225 +4.9 345
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 229 D +3.4 310
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 310
Second Chance C+ 29.4% 141 C- 1.05 211 C 0.31 173
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.0% 143
Other Turnovers B 8.3% 65
Turnovers B- 18.3% 84
Freethrows C 0.31 196 C 72% 155 C 0.22 191
Total Defense C- -1.5 218

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 162 D 6.9% 327
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 261 C+ 5.8% 111
Three Pointers D- 90% 343 B+ 1.9% 33
Total D+ 61% 299 D+ 4.3% 287

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.0 12 17.3 176
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 17 0.18 229
Consistency 0.13 231 0.11 118
Improvement +1.3 114 +0.0 184

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 233 204 174
Results Rating Rank 234 180 150
Conference Record 10 - 10 11 - 9 13 - 7
Conference Finish 8 5 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 22% 40% 9%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 3% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Hawaii (Home) - 40.6% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 35 - 86 - 15
Quad 48 - 215 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 100 @Wyoming L 82 - 92 16% -3  14% 0 - 1 C- -2 D -4 D+ D- F+ B +4 C+ B D-
 Mon, Nov 10 67 @California L 65 - 93 10% -16  0% 0 - 2 F+ -16 F -11 C- F D+ C- -3 B+ C- F+
 Sat, Nov 15 118 Pacific L 73 - 85 40% -14  0% 0 - 3 D- -12 F+ -9 F D- A+ C -1 F A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 21 224 @Portland L 85 - 103 42% -13  2% 0 - 4 F -19 C +1 A F C+ F -18 F F F+
 Sat, Nov 22 115 St. Thomas W 88 - 80 29% -1  39% 1 - 4 B +11 B- +5 C+ D- A B+ +6 A+ D D-
 Sun, Nov 23 168 Northern Colorado L 93 - 97 43% -4  13% 1 - 5 C- -5 B- +4 C D- A+ D- -8 C D- F
 Sat, Nov 29 280 Pepperdine W 83 - 69 76% +5  72% 2 - 5 C+ +4 C+ +2 C B- B+ B- +2 B+ B C
 Thu, Dec 4 222 Cal Poly L 91 - 94 65% -5  6% 2 - 6 0 - 1 D -9 D -6 C C- F+ D+ -3 F A+ A
 Sat, Dec 6 116 @Hawaii L 59 - 69 21% -9  1% 2 - 7 0 - 2 C- -4 F -12 F F A- A- +8 B B- B-
 Sat, Dec 13 243 @Denver W 105 - 86 47% +19  96% 3 - 7 A- +17 A +14 A+ B- D+ B- +2 B+ F B-
 Sun, Dec 21 63 @Oklahoma St. L 89 - 94 10% -10  0% 3 - 8 B- +7 B +7 A B+ C+ C+ +0 F+ B A+
 Sun, Dec 28 31 @SMU L 63 - 110 4% -25  0% 3 - 9 F -29 F -12 F D+ F F -13 F D+ C
 Thu, Jan 1 142 UC Santa Barbara W 95 - 84 48% +13  97% 4 - 9 1 - 2 B +9 B+ +8 B+ C+ B+ C -0 F C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 123 UC Irvine L 64 - 86 41% -9  16% 4 - 10 1 - 3 F -22 D -6 D C- A- F -17 F F A-
 Thu, Jan 8 132 @UC San Diego W 88 - 71 25% +4  52% 5 - 10 2 - 3 A +22 A+ +18 A+ C A+ B +4 A- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 157 Cal St. Northridge W 86 - 79 52% -1  32% 6 - 10 3 - 3 C+ +4 C +1 B+ D B B- +2 C B C+
 Thu, Jan 15 175 @UC Davis L 69 - 74 33% -9  0% 6 - 11 3 - 4 C- -3 F+ -9 F C- D+ B+ +7 B- F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 281 @UC Riverside L 72 - 81 55% -9  0% 6 - 12 3 - 5 D- -13 F -10 F D- D- C- -2 F A- B+
 Thu, Jan 22 265 Long Beach St. W 71 - 61 73% +11  98% 7 - 12 4 - 5 C +1 D- -6 B+ F D A- +8 C+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 222 @Cal Poly W 93 - 78 42% +8  89% 8 - 12 5 - 5 B+ +15 A- +11 A F+ C+ B- +3 C- F+ A
 Sat, Jan 31 142 @UC Santa Barbara L 69 - 83 26% -13  0% 8 - 13 5 - 6 D -10 F -10 D D F C+ +1 D B+ A-
 Thu, Feb 5 281 UC Riverside W 78 - 72 76% -1  43% 9 - 13 6 - 6 C- -4 D -6 D- F B C+ +2 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 332 Cal St. Bakersfield W 82 - 66 86% +16  97% 10 - 13 7 - 6 C+ +2 D -5 B- F B B+ +6 B C+ B
 Thu, Feb 12 265 @Long Beach St. W 86 - 82 52% -4  20% 11 - 13 8 - 6 C +1 B- +5 C- B+ A- D+ -4 F A B+
 Sat, Feb 14 123 @UC Irvine L 65 - 86 21% -7  31% 11 - 14 8 - 7 F+ -15 D -5 D- B- B+ F+ -9 F C B
 Thu, Feb 19 175 UC Davis W 93 - 92 56% -8  1% 12 - 14 9 - 7 C- -3 A+ +20 A+ C- B F -23 F D+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 332 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 88 - 80 71% -2  32% 13 - 14 10 - 7 C -0 B- +5 A+ F B D -5 D C F
 Sat, Feb 28 116 Hawaii L 77 - 80 41%
 Thu, Mar 5 132 UC San Diego L 77 - 78 46%
 Sat, Mar 7 157 @Cal St. Northridge L 84 - 89 30%
Totals 14 - 16 11 - 9 -2 C- -1 F+ C+ C C- -1 B- C- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C C- B- C+ 37% 37% 42% C C+ D D+ D B- C+ C- C+ C- D- D C- D 35% 16% 49% C- D C+ C- C B- C C C
1.07 59% 37% 36% +1 0 1.04 25% 1.0 .24 16% .32 72% .23 1.11 65% 42% 35% +3 0 1.10 29% 1.0 .31 18% .31 72% .23
Nov
8		 Wyoming D B+ D F D+ 45% 24% 31% D+ D+ F+ D D- F+ A+ B- A+ B A- D- D- C+ 44% 11% 46% D+ C+ A+ F B D- F A+ F+
0.98 65% 33% 19% -5 0 0.92 18% 0.9 .16 20% .64 72% .46 1.10 48% 50% 38% 0 +2 1.05 25% 1.2 .30 13% .51 59% .30
Nov
10		 California F B C- F C- 38% 23% 39% C- C- C- F F D+ F F F C- B+ A+ D+ A- 36% 15% 49% D- B+ C- C- C- F+ F F F
0.84 61% 36% 21% -7 0 0.87 27% 0.6 .16 18% .17 45% .08 1.20 52% 22% 38% -2 0 1.00 29% 1.1 .31 10% .43 87% .38
Nov
15		 Pacific F+ F F F F 47% 21% 32% A F C- F D- A+ C- A C+ C F+ F F F 46% 26% 28% C+ F A+ A- A+ A- C- F+ D+
0.93 42% 29% 24% -14 +1 0.74 23% 0.8 .17 9% .31 77% .24 1.09 65% 54% 50% +14 0 1.30 25% 0.9 .21 24% .29 82% .24
Nov
21		 Portland C B B- A+ A+ 38% 14% 48% B- A D- F F C+ D+ F F F F+ F F F 46% 18% 36% D+ F B+ F F F+ B B B+
1.09 64% 38% 43% +8 +1 1.21 26% 0.6 .16 17% .28 50% .14 1.32 69% 50% 50% +16 +1 1.36 24% 2.5 .60 17% .26 71% .18
Nov
22		 St. Thomas B- B F C- C 39% 9% 52% B- C+ F A- D- A A+ A+ A+ B+ C C- A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% B- A+ D+ F+ D D- B F D
1.15 67% 20% 32% 0 +2 1.06 19% 1.3 .25 13% .38 92% .35 1.05 64% 38% 21% -6 +1 0.92 23% 1.1 .26 12% .25 94% .24
Nov
23		 Northern Colorado B- C F C- C 55% 16% 30% B C D D- D- A+ A F+ B+ D- D- C+ B- C+ 35% 15% 51% C- C B F D- F F F F
1.15 57% 30% 32% -3 +2 1.00 21% 1.0 .21 5% .43 70% .30 1.20 68% 38% 32% +2 +1 1.07 24% 1.5 .36 11% .56 85% .47
Nov
29		 Pepperdine C+ A- C+ D- C 37% 17% 46% D+ C C+ B+ B- B+ F D F B- D- A A+ A 36% 15% 49% D- B+ A+ F B C F F F
1.18 68% 40% 30% +1 0 1.05 33% 1.2 .41 13% .15 67% .10 0.98 65% 29% 22% -8 +1 0.87 18% 1.2 .21 18% .45 88% .40
Dec
4		 Cal Poly D F+ A- A C+ 41% 22% 37% C- C C- C C- F+ A+ D A+ D+ C F F F 27% 4% 69% C+ F A+ A+ A+ A F B+ F
1.06 50% 46% 41% +2 0 1.07 30% 1.1 .33 20% .42 69% .29 1.10 57% 50% 50% +17 +1 1.38 17% 0.0 .00 26% .47 73% .35
Dec
6		 Hawaii F F+ C- F F 54% 14% 32% A- F F+ F F A- D+ D+ D+ A- D+ A+ B B 30% 8% 62% C B D+ A B- B- B+ A A
0.81 45% 38% 17% -15 +2 0.75 18% 0.5 .09 12% .28 67% .19 0.95 63% 0% 30% -5 +1 0.94 33% 0.9 .28 21% .29 65% .19
Dec
13		 Denver A B- A+ A+ A+ 39% 11% 50% B- A+ D+ A+ B- D+ B- B B B- C- A+ A A 42% 16% 42% F B+ D+ F F B- D A+ C+
1.37 64% 50% 50% +15 +1 1.36 31% 1.4 .44 14% .35 74% .26 1.12 58% 22% 29% -5 +1 0.93 32% 1.6 .51 16% .34 64% .22
Dec
21		 Oklahoma St. B B- D A+ A+ 42% 11% 47% B A B- A- B+ C+ A+ F A C+ C+ D- F F 40% 12% 47% B F+ C+ A- B A+ C+ A B
1.12 59% 33% 44% +7 +1 1.19 31% 1.3 .40 18% .52 50% .26 1.18 57% 43% 48% +10 +1 1.25 31% 0.8 .26 21% .34 67% .22
Dec
28		 SMU F F A+ F F 25% 27% 47% D F B+ F D+ F A+ D+ A F F A+ F F 31% 26% 43% B- F F A D+ C C C+ C+
0.83 31% 50% 25% -10 -2 0.78 36% 0.7 .24 25% .38 68% .26 1.44 84% 31% 54% +19 -1 1.38 50% 0.9 .43 14% .29 74% .21
Jan
1		 UC Santa Barbara B+ A+ A+ F B+ 43% 25% 31% C- B+ F A+ C+ B+ A+ A A+ C F D F F 27% 14% 59% C+ F D- A C+ A+ A+ F A-
1.25 77% 54% 25% +8 0 1.18 17% 1.8 .31 13% .56 81% .45 1.10 85% 43% 45% +17 0 1.37 37% 0.8 .30 32% .19 100% .19
Jan
3		 UC Irvine D F F A+ D+ 28% 31% 41% F+ D D+ C C- A- D- B D F F A+ F F 40% 10% 50% F F F F F A- D- A+ C
0.92 27% 24% 41% -9 -2 0.80 30% 0.9 .28 14% .20 75% .15 1.24 68% 20% 46% +11 +1 1.27 39% 1.5 .61 22% .35 58% .20
Jan
8		 UC San Diego A+ A+ F A+ A+ 29% 21% 50% D+ A+ F A+ C A+ A+ F B+ B C- B- A A 27% 6% 67% C A- F F F A+ F F F
1.27 73% 9% 50% +10 -1 1.21 18% 1.7 .30 9% .38 63% .24 1.02 62% 33% 27% -6 +1 0.92 35% 1.3 .44 24% .38 90% .34
Jan
10		 Cal St. Northridge C C+ F A+ B 41% 15% 44% B B+ D C- D B A+ F A- B- D+ A+ C C 47% 15% 38% C- C A- C B C+ B+ A+ A+
1.10 59% 25% 42% +4 +1 1.11 23% 1.1 .26 14% .42 68% .28 1.01 61% 22% 35% -1 +1 1.03 26% 1.0 .26 18% .25 38% .09
Jan
15		 UC Davis F+ F F B- F 40% 17% 42% C- F D+ C+ C- D+ A+ F A+ B+ D+ D+ A+ B+ 47% 11% 42% F B- F C F A+ F A F
0.93 48% 11% 36% -7 +1 0.88 28% 1.0 .28 20% .54 59% .32 0.99 62% 40% 26% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.0 .38 27% .57 68% .39
Jan
17		 UC Riverside F B- D- F F 39% 21% 39% C- F D- D+ D- D- A+ C+ A+ C- F F C- F 34% 26% 40% B+ F B+ A A- B+ F+ F F
0.93 64% 33% 14% -11 0 0.80 24% 0.9 .21 18% .49 71% .35 1.04 71% 54% 35% +9 -1 1.18 21% 0.7 .14 22% .36 82% .30
Jan
22		 Long Beach St. D- A+ A+ F A 34% 27% 39% D- B+ F F F D C B C+ A- D- B- B+ B- 27% 20% 53% D C+ C A+ A+ A+ F+ D+ F+
1.04 73% 75% 24% +9 -1 1.18 19% 0.8 .15 19% .35 79% .27 0.90 67% 33% 29% -3 -1 0.96 26% 0.6 .14 25% .33 76% .25
Jan
24		 Cal Poly A- B A+ A A 38% 10% 52% B A B- F F+ C+ A+ A A+ B- B- F C+ D+ 28% 6% 67% B- C- F B- F+ A B B+ B+
1.26 65% 60% 41% +10 +1 1.25 34% 0.7 .24 15% .41 81% .33 1.06 53% 100% 33% +1 +1 1.07 43% 0.9 .40 26% .27 73% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 UC Santa Barbara F A- F B- D 31% 25% 43% D D F A+ D F D F+ D- C+ F F B D 38% 9% 53% F+ D D+ A+ B+ A- C+ F+ C
0.94 69% 15% 36% -1 -1 0.98 15% 1.6 .24 20% .31 67% .21 1.13 75% 60% 32% +7 +1 1.19 34% 0.7 .25 22% .30 82% .24
Feb
5		 UC Riverside D F+ F C F 62% 10% 29% A+ D- F C+ F B A+ A+ A+ C+ B- C- C+ C+ 34% 21% 45% B- C+ A+ A A+ F A- A+ A+
1.03 50% 20% 33% -7 +3 0.94 17% 1.0 .17 13% .49 84% .41 0.95 52% 38% 32% -3 0 0.95 14% 0.7 .09 12% .24 56% .14
Feb
7		 Cal St. Bakersfield D F A+ A+ B- 35% 15% 50% C B- D- F F B C C+ C B+ C+ B- A+ A- 42% 17% 40% F B C- B C+ B D- A+ B+
1.11 44% 63% 42% +5 0 1.13 31% 0.5 .15 15% .36 74% .27 0.89 55% 33% 19% -11 +1 0.81 33% 0.9 .28 22% .41 54% .22
Feb
12		 Long Beach St. B- C F B+ C- 45% 18% 38% B- C- B- A B+ A- C A- B- D+ F F C F 33% 24% 43% D F A+ F A B+ F C F
1.16 60% 20% 38% 0 +1 1.04 31% 1.5 .46 13% .34 82% .28 1.11 81% 58% 33% +12 -1 1.24 12% 1.3 .15 20% .39 74% .29
Feb
14		 UC Irvine D F A+ F D 22% 31% 47% F D- F A+ B- B+ F F F F+ F+ F F F 31% 27% 42% B F B- D- C B A+ A A+
0.88 15% 56% 26% -10 -2 0.78 20% 1.7 .34 15% .14 56% .08 1.17 65% 73% 43% +18 -1 1.35 28% 1.1 .32 20% .17 60% .10
Feb
19		 UC Davis A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 32% 21% 47% D- A+ C+ D- C- B B- A+ A F F C- F F 33% 16% 51% C- F D C D+ F F C F
1.40 87% 70% 45% +24 -1 1.49 32% 0.9 .27 17% .34 89% .31 1.38 71% 38% 42% +10 0 1.24 30% 1.0 .30 9% .53 75% .40
Feb
21		 Cal St. Bakersfield B- A+ B- A+ A+ 15% 29% 56% F A+ F B F B D+ F+ D- D F B A D- 25% 39% 36% A- D B D- C F C- F D
1.20 75% 44% 48% +16 -3 1.29 19% 1.2 .22 15% .34 67% .22 1.09 86% 32% 25% 0 -3 0.95 28% 1.1 .30 14% .36 83% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 2.1 2.2 2nd
3rd 5.9 3.8 9.8 3rd
4th 1.0 17.1 18.1 4th
5th 21.1 4.5 25.6 5th
6th 5.4 17.6 23.0 6th
7th 13.2 2.7 15.9 7th
8th 5.0 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 23.7 42.4 27.7 6.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 4.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 6.2% 7.3% 7.3% 13.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 5.8
12-8 27.7% 3.5% 3.5% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 26.7
11-9 42.4% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.1 0.6 0.0 41.8
10-10 23.7% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.1 0.2 23.4
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 14.7 97.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 13.9 17.6 71.4 11.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.1%
Lose Out 14.4%