Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.7 #231
Expected Predictive Rating -2.4 #207
Pace 81.9 #5
Improvement +4.3 #21

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #210 C+ D- B+ C+ C
Defense #244 D C B- C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #146 1.18 #148 +1.0 #137
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #175 0.71 #239 -0.4 #198
Three Pointers 40% #202 1.08 #99 +0.8 #148
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #146 +1.3 #144
Freethrows 18.9 #107 70% #258 13.3 #142
Second Chance 26.6% #294 0.95 #288 0.25 #307
Turnovers 14.5% #61
Total Offense -1.5 #210

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #289 1.25 #288 +0.7 #149
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #307 0.69 #99 +2.1 #45
Three Pointers 49% #17 1.11 #303 -6.5 #353
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #295 -3.7 #294
Freethrows 16.8 #163 74% #232 12.4 #189
Second Chance 29.2% #121 1.12 #281 0.33 #202
Turnovers 17.8% #100
Total Defense -2.2 #244

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #182 0.5% #212
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.5% #144 6.8% #300
Possession Length 14.6 #9 17.0 #137
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #15 0.18 #197
Improvement +2.6 #41 +1.6 #88

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.6% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 13.8% 24.5% 8.7%
.500 or above in Conference 49.0% 67.7% 40.2%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.5% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 5.2% 1.9% 6.8%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round1.7% 2.6% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Davis (Away) - 32.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 33 - 85 - 14
Quad 48 - 513 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 96 @Wyoming L 82 - 92 13% -3  0 - 1 -2 -2 D F D- +2 C+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 81 @California L 65 - 93 11% -16  0 - 2 -18 -9 D+ F D+ -6 B+ C F
 Sat, Nov 15 144 Pacific L 73 - 85 44% -14  0 - 3 -14 -9 F F A+ -4 F A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 233 @Portland L 85 - 103 39% -13  0 - 4 -19 +3 A+ F C -20 F F F
 Sat, Nov 22 128 St. Thomas W 88 - 80 29% -1  1 - 4 +10 +7 C F A+ +2 A+ D- D-
 Sun, Nov 23 174 Northern Colorado L 93 - 97 40% -4  1 - 5 -5 +6 C F A+ -10 C D F
 Sat, Nov 29 286 Pepperdine W 83 - 69 73% +5  2 - 5 +4 +7 C B+ A+ -3 B B- C-
 Thu, Dec 4 249 Cal Poly L 91 - 94 66% -5  2 - 6 0 - 1 -11 -2 B- C F -9 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 104 @Hawaii L 59 - 69 14% -9  2 - 7 0 - 2 -2 -8 D- F A +6 B A- B+
 Sat, Dec 13 280 @Denver W 105 - 86 50% +19  3 - 7 +15 +16 A+ C D+ -2 A- F C
 Sun, Dec 21 62 @Oklahoma St. L 89 - 94 8% -10  3 - 8 +7 +10 A+ A+ C- -2 F A- A+
 Sun, Dec 28 30 @SMU L 63 - 110 3% -25  3 - 9 -29 -9 F C- F -17 F C- D+
 Thu, Jan 1 181 UC Santa Barbara W 95 - 84 53% +13  4 - 9 1 - 2 +6 +9 B C A+ -4 F C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 122 UC Irvine L 64 - 86 38% -9  4 - 10 1 - 3 -23 -4 D- C- B+ -18 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 109 @UC San Diego W 88 - 71 16% +4  5 - 10 2 - 3 +24 +19 A+ D+ A+ +5 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 216 Cal St. Northridge W 86 - 79 59% -1  6 - 10 3 - 3 +1 +1 B F C+ -1 D+ B- C+
 Thu, Jan 15 188 @UC Davis L 80 - 85 32%
 Sat, Jan 17 287 @UC Riverside W 80 - 79 52%
 Thu, Jan 22 264 Long Beach St. W 83 - 78 68%
 Sat, Jan 24 249 @Cal Poly L 88 - 90 43%
 Sat, Jan 31 181 @UC Santa Barbara L 78 - 83 31%
 Thu, Feb 5 287 UC Riverside W 83 - 76 73%
 Sat, Feb 7 293 Cal St. Bakersfield W 85 - 78 74%
 Thu, Feb 12 264 @Long Beach St. L 80 - 81 47%
 Sat, Feb 14 122 @UC Irvine L 73 - 82 20%
 Thu, Feb 19 188 UC Davis W 83 - 82 53%
 Sat, Feb 21 293 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 82 - 81 53%
 Sat, Feb 28 104 Hawaii L 75 - 81 31%
 Thu, Mar 5 109 UC San Diego L 78 - 83 33%
 Sat, Mar 7 216 @Cal St. Northridge L 85 - 89 37%
Totals 12 - 18 9 - 11 -4 -2 C+ D- B+ -2 D C B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 3.2 2.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.5 7.5 5.0 1.4 0.1 17.9 4th
5th 0.2 3.5 8.2 4.5 0.8 0.0 17.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 7.7 4.9 0.7 0.0 15.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 6.4 5.4 0.9 0.0 13.7 7th
8th 0.3 3.9 5.0 1.0 0.0 10.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 3.9 1.1 0.1 7.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.0 0.0 4.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.0 2.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.6 2.1 5.2 9.9 15.1 18.1 17.6 14.0 9.3 5.3 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 61.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 45.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 11.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 15.4% 15.4% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.6% 19.2% 19.2% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-6 2.0% 8.8% 8.8% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.8
13-7 5.3% 6.8% 6.8% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 4.9
12-8 9.3% 4.8% 4.8% 14.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 8.9
11-9 14.0% 2.3% 2.3% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 13.7
10-10 17.6% 1.3% 1.3% 15.7 0.1 0.2 17.4
9-11 18.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 18.0
8-12 15.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.1
7-13 9.9% 9.9
6-14 5.2% 5.2
5-15 2.1% 2.1
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 14.9 98.2 0.0%