Canisius
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.6#348
Expected Predictive Rating-2.5#208
Pace62.2#347
Improvement+1.4#73

Offense
Total Offense-6.1#331
First Shot-5.3#328
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#218
Layup/Dunks-5.4#340
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#60
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#183
Freethrows-2.3#314
Improvement+0.7#108

Defense
Total Defense-5.5#342
First Shot-3.8#303
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#290
Layups/Dunks-0.7#205
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#224
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#285
Freethrows-0.3#210
Improvement+0.7#118
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 6.0% 11.0% 3.5%
.500 or above in Conference 12.0% 15.8% 10.2%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 32.6% 25.9% 35.9%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Home) - 32.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 61 - 10
Quad 49 - 1110 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 78 @Dayton L 48-88 3%     0 - 1 -29.5 -13.8 -19.9
  Sat, Nov 8 119 @St. Bonaventure L 70-89 6%     0 - 2 -13.0 +7.7 -22.5
  Wed, Nov 12 320 Mercyhurst W 58-55 49%     1 - 2 -8.5 -11.0 +3.0
  Mon, Nov 17 86 @High Point L 50-93 4%     1 - 3 -33.6 -18.2 -17.8
  Fri, Nov 21 339 Maryland Eastern Shore W 60-57 59%     2 - 3 -10.9 -4.3 -6.0
  Sun, Nov 23 352 Binghamton W 75-66 65%     3 - 3 -6.4 +4.7 -9.9
  Sat, Nov 29 228 Buffalo L 68-73 33%    
  Fri, Dec 5 295 @St. Peter's L 62-69 25%    
  Sun, Dec 7 177 @Siena L 61-74 11%    
  Sat, Dec 13 321 @Maine L 60-66 29%    
  Tue, Dec 16 106 @Rhode Island L 60-79 4%    
  Mon, Dec 22 126 @Duquesne L 66-83 6%    
  Fri, Jan 2 288 Fairfield L 70-72 43%    
  Sun, Jan 4 261 Sacred Heart L 73-76 38%    
  Fri, Jan 9 318 @Manhattan L 71-77 28%    
  Sun, Jan 11 167 @Iona L 67-81 11%    
  Wed, Jan 14 333 Niagara W 66-64 55%    
  Sat, Jan 17 297 Mount St. Mary's L 68-69 45%    
  Thu, Jan 22 261 @Sacred Heart L 70-79 21%    
  Sat, Jan 24 288 @Fairfield L 67-75 24%    
  Fri, Jan 30 154 Marist L 58-66 23%    
  Sun, Feb 1 177 Siena L 64-71 26%    
  Tue, Feb 3 333 @Niagara L 63-67 35%    
  Thu, Feb 5 193 @Quinnipiac L 65-78 13%    
  Fri, Feb 13 167 Iona L 70-78 25%    
  Sun, Feb 15 318 Manhattan L 73-74 49%    
  Fri, Feb 20 343 @Rider L 66-69 38%    
  Sun, Feb 22 297 @Mount St. Mary's L 65-72 26%    
  Fri, Feb 27 255 Merrimack L 64-67 38%    
  Sun, Mar 1 193 Quinnipiac L 68-75 28%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.1 0.1 3.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.6 1.8 0.3 5.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 2.8 2.7 0.7 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.6 3.9 1.3 0.0 9.7 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 3.7 4.7 1.8 0.1 11.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.0 5.6 2.4 0.4 15.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 2.9 5.8 5.8 2.7 0.3 0.0 18.5 12th
13th 0.8 2.9 5.6 6.5 4.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 22.7 13th
Total 0.8 2.9 6.4 9.6 12.2 13.7 13.2 11.9 9.7 7.5 5.1 3.3 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 33.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.2% 5.6% 5.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 0.5% 3.1% 3.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-7 1.1% 5.3% 5.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.0
12-8 1.8% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.7
11-9 3.3% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 3.3
10-10 5.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.0
9-11 7.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 7.4
8-12 9.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.7
7-13 11.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.9
6-14 13.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.2
5-15 13.7% 13.7
4-16 12.2% 12.2
3-17 9.6% 9.6
2-18 6.4% 6.4
1-19 2.9% 2.9
0-20 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%