Canisius
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.1 #337
Expected Predictive Rating -5.0 #245
Pace 62.5 #339
Improvement +1.7 #93

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #341 F C- D C- D-
Defense #289 D+ C F B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #281 0.80 #365 -8.4 #362
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #61 0.76 #167 +2.4 #64
Three Pointers 38% #241 0.96 #250 -2.4 #269
1st FG Attempt 0.85 #358 -8.4 #359
Freethrows 17.3 #195 69% #278 12.0 #220
Second Chance 25.8% #310 1.13 #84 0.29 #247
Turnovers 18.4% #288
Total Offense -7.4 #341

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #317 1.30 #328 +0.8 #144
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #290 0.84 #306 +0.6 #152
Three Pointers 50% #15 1.01 #175 -4.4 #341
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #275 -3.1 #276
Freethrows 15.5 #95 73% #181 11.3 #266
Second Chance 30.8% #183 1.08 #238 0.33 #219
Turnovers 13.3% #339
Total Defense -3.7 #289

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.2% #312 0.1% #173
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -14.5% #356 5.8% #288
Possession Length 19.3 #344 17.4 #203
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #287 0.18 #202
Improvement +0.6 #143 +1.1 #113

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 7.1% 9.2% 2.2%
.500 or above in Conference 21.1% 26.5% 8.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 1.8% 11.5%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Niagara (Home) - 69.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 30 - 70 - 11
Quad 412 - 812 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 70 @Dayton L 48 - 88 3% -21  0 - 1 -29 -12 F C F -21 F F F
 Sat, Nov 8 127 @St. Bonaventure L 70 - 89 8% -7  0 - 2 -14 +5 A+ F D -20 C- F F
 Wed, Nov 12 308 Mercyhurst W 58 - 55 52% +3  1 - 2 -9 -11 C F F +2 C A B+
 Mon, Nov 17 87 @High Point L 50 - 93 4% -25  1 - 3 -33 -18 F B- F -18 F D- F
 Fri, Nov 21 324 Maryland Eastern Shore W 60 - 57 57% +3  2 - 3 -10 -5 C+ C+ F -5 C+ D- D+
 Sun, Nov 23 359 Binghamton W 75 - 66 75% +3  3 - 3 -9 +4 D- A+ C -12 C F F
 Sat, Nov 29 199 Buffalo L 53 - 71 29% -8  3 - 4 -23 -21 F D D- -4 C+ C D+
 Fri, Dec 5 246 @St. Peter's L 57 - 69 19% -6  3 - 5 0 - 1 -14 -9 F B- C -6 B+ F C-
 Sun, Dec 7 177 @Siena L 52 - 74 12% -14  3 - 6 0 - 2 -20 -14 F D F -8 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 341 @Maine W 70 - 43 39% +16  4 - 6 +19 +4 B C F +17 A+ D- B+
 Tue, Dec 16 123 @Rhode Island L 45 - 62 7% -3  4 - 7 -12 -18 F F F +5 A- A+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 132 @Duquesne L 59 - 103 8% -22  4 - 8 -39 -15 F D+ F -23 F D+ F
 Fri, Jan 2 281 Fairfield W 85 - 81 45% +4  5 - 8 1 - 2 -6 +9 C A- A+ -15 D D- F
 Sun, Jan 4 285 Sacred Heart W 82 - 78 46% -4  6 - 8 2 - 2 -6 +4 F B+ C- -10 F C F
 Fri, Jan 9 312 @Manhattan W 70 - 64 31% -1  7 - 8 3 - 2 +0 -5 F F B+ +5 C A+ C
 Sun, Jan 11 198 @Iona L 48 - 74 14% -8  7 - 9 3 - 3 -25 -16 F C A+ -13 F F A
 Wed, Jan 14 355 Niagara W 67 - 62 69%
 Sat, Jan 17 297 Mount St. Mary's L 66 - 67 50%
 Thu, Jan 22 285 @Sacred Heart L 67 - 74 26%
 Sat, Jan 24 281 @Fairfield L 66 - 73 25%
 Fri, Jan 30 129 Marist L 57 - 67 19%
 Sun, Feb 1 177 Siena L 62 - 69 26%
 Tue, Feb 3 355 @Niagara L 64 - 65 48%
 Thu, Feb 5 156 @Quinnipiac L 63 - 77 9%
 Fri, Feb 13 198 Iona L 67 - 73 30%
 Sun, Feb 15 312 Manhattan W 72 - 71 53%
 Fri, Feb 20 348 @Rider L 63 - 64 45%
 Sun, Feb 22 297 @Mount St. Mary's L 64 - 70 28%
 Fri, Feb 27 241 Merrimack L 62 - 66 37%
 Sun, Mar 1 156 Quinnipiac L 66 - 74 23%
Totals 12 - 18 8 - 12 -11 -7 F C- D -4 D+ C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 3.4 2.9 0.4 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 5.3 5.0 1.1 0.0 12.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 5.9 6.7 1.6 0.1 15.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 6.2 8.2 2.4 0.1 17.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 4.9 8.1 3.1 0.2 16.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.7 7.5 2.9 0.3 14.9 11th
12th 0.1 1.7 3.1 1.5 0.1 6.5 12th
13th 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.7 13th
Total 0.5 3.0 7.9 14.7 18.5 18.8 15.5 10.8 6.2 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 38.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 0.1
14-6 0.3% 4.5% 4.5% 15.0 0.0 0.3
13-7 0.9% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.9
12-8 2.6% 1.3% 1.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 2.6
11-9 6.2% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 6.2
10-10 10.8% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.8
9-11 15.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.5
8-12 18.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.8
7-13 18.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.5
6-14 14.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.6
5-15 7.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.9
4-16 3.0% 3.0
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.8 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%