Chattanooga
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#188
Expected Predictive Rating-2.4#206
Pace66.5#267
Improvement+2.1#37

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#132
First Shot+2.6#101
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#276
Layup/Dunks-3.2#290
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#166
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#54
Freethrows+1.4#104
Improvement-0.2#199

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#268
First Shot-1.0#205
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#298
Layups/Dunks+1.3#130
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#261
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#238
Freethrows+0.0#188
Improvement+2.3#16
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.3% 15.9% 11.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 68.9% 76.3% 53.4%
.500 or above in Conference 80.4% 83.3% 74.3%
Conference Champion 17.5% 19.8% 12.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.7% 1.9%
First Four1.4% 1.2% 1.6%
First Round13.6% 15.2% 10.5%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Home) - 67.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 53 - 9
Quad 414 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 30 @St. Mary's L 66-87 5%     0 - 1 -4.6 +5.1 -10.4
  Sat, Nov 8 129 @UNLV L 69-101 25%     0 - 2 -26.9 -0.8 -27.1
  Sat, Nov 15 164 @Florida Gulf Coast L 73-91 35%     0 - 3 -15.7 +0.5 -16.4
  Wed, Nov 19 347 @South Carolina St. W 78-66 74%     1 - 3 +3.4 +0.4 +2.6
  Sat, Nov 22 242 North Alabama W 71-57 71%     2 - 3 +6.4 +5.3 +3.3
  Sun, Nov 30 224 Tennessee St. W 79-74 68%    
  Sat, Dec 6 211 Southeast Missouri St. W 77-73 66%    
  Sat, Dec 13 23 Auburn L 68-85 6%    
  Wed, Dec 17 294 @Bellarmine W 77-74 60%    
  Sun, Dec 21 293 @Alabama A&M W 74-72 60%    
  Thu, Jan 1 287 @UNC Greensboro W 74-72 58%    
  Sat, Jan 3 342 @VMI W 78-72 71%    
  Wed, Jan 7 160 Furman W 73-71 56%    
  Sat, Jan 10 221 Samford W 77-72 67%    
  Wed, Jan 14 225 @Wofford L 75-76 47%    
  Sat, Jan 17 278 @Western Carolina W 76-74 55%    
  Wed, Jan 21 137 East Tennessee St. L 70-71 48%    
  Sat, Jan 24 221 @Samford L 74-75 46%    
  Thu, Jan 29 225 Wofford W 78-73 66%    
  Sun, Feb 1 160 @Furman L 70-74 35%    
  Thu, Feb 5 206 Mercer W 81-77 63%    
  Sat, Feb 7 358 The Citadel W 81-66 91%    
  Wed, Feb 11 137 @East Tennessee St. L 68-74 29%    
  Sat, Feb 14 278 Western Carolina W 79-71 74%    
  Thu, Feb 19 206 @Mercer L 78-80 44%    
  Sat, Feb 21 358 @The Citadel W 78-69 79%    
  Thu, Feb 26 287 UNC Greensboro W 77-69 75%    
  Sat, Feb 28 342 VMI W 81-69 86%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 4.7 4.8 2.6 1.1 0.2 17.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 5.5 6.4 3.4 0.9 0.1 18.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 5.6 6.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 15.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 5.8 5.0 1.5 0.1 14.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.7 4.2 0.9 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.8 3.5 0.8 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.8 3.3 5.3 8.0 10.8 12.7 13.2 14.0 11.6 8.3 5.8 2.7 1.1 0.2 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 96.6% 2.6    2.3 0.3
15-3 84.0% 4.8    3.7 1.1 0.0
14-4 56.4% 4.7    2.6 1.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 26.3% 3.0    0.9 1.4 0.7 0.1
12-6 6.6% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.5% 17.5 10.9 5.0 1.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 63.6% 63.6% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.1% 50.3% 50.3% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6
16-2 2.7% 38.4% 38.4% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.6
15-3 5.8% 32.4% 32.4% 14.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.0 3.9
14-4 8.3% 26.0% 26.0% 14.3 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.2 6.1
13-5 11.6% 22.1% 22.1% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.3 9.0
12-6 14.0% 16.6% 16.6% 14.9 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.5 11.7
11-7 13.2% 11.0% 11.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.5 11.8
10-8 12.7% 7.9% 7.9% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.6 11.7
9-9 10.8% 6.3% 6.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 10.1
8-10 8.0% 4.8% 4.8% 15.9 0.0 0.4 7.6
7-11 5.3% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.2 5.1
6-12 3.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.3
5-13 1.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.8
4-14 0.9% 0.9
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.5 1.7 3.9 5.1 3.2 85.7 0.0%