Chattanooga
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.0 #267
Expected Predictive Rating -9.4 #317
Pace 66.5 #247
Improvement +1.2 #118

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #231 C- F B C- C-
Defense #292 D F D+ D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #337 1.14 #209 -4.5 #325
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #202 0.80 #116 +0.0 #183
Three Pointers 49% #32 0.94 #267 +2.5 #100
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #231 -2.1 #232
Freethrows 15.9 #262 76% #79 12.1 #214
Second Chance 18.2% #364 1.09 #130 0.20 #359
Turnovers 14.9% #80
Total Offense -2.2 #231

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #257 1.30 #326 -0.9 #208
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #216 0.67 #73 +1.3 #94
Three Pointers 45% #63 1.07 #268 -3.5 #316
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #276 -3.1 #278
Freethrows 19.5 #286 72% #155 14.0 #86
Second Chance 33.0% #273 1.24 #345 0.41 #341
Turnovers 15.3% #261
Total Defense -3.8 #292

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #233 0.0% #166
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.4% #229 6.1% #295
Possession Length 17.6 #196 17.7 #250
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #284 0.19 #226
Improvement -1.0 #243 +2.2 #63

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 3.7% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 5.2% 10.9% 2.7%
.500 or above in Conference 30.2% 50.2% 21.5%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 5.5% 2.4% 6.8%
First Four2.0% 2.1% 1.9%
First Round2.1% 2.9% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wofford (Away) - 30.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 61 - 10
Quad 410 - 911 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 42 @St. Mary's L 66 - 87 4% -12  0 - 1 -6 +2 B+ F F -9 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 134 @UNLV L 69 - 101 16% -11  0 - 2 -28 +1 B+ F B- -30 F F F
 Sat, Nov 15 201 @Florida Gulf Coast L 73 - 91 26% -13  0 - 3 -17 -1 D- F B+ -17 C- F F
 Wed, Nov 19 361 @South Carolina St. W 78 - 66 73% +8  1 - 3 -0 -2 D- C- D+ +1 A+ F F
 Sat, Nov 22 279 North Alabama W 71 - 57 64% +6  2 - 3 +4 +5 C+ B F +2 D+ B- A-
 Sun, Nov 30 226 Tennessee St. L 64 - 70 52% -8  2 - 4 -13 -7 F D A+ -6 C+ F F
 Sat, Dec 6 224 Southeast Missouri St. L 70 - 74 52% +1  2 - 5 -10 -2 B- D- C -9 D- D- C+
 Sat, Dec 13 27 Auburn L 78 - 92 4% -7  2 - 6 +1 +9 C+ F A+ -8 D- F A+
 Wed, Dec 17 294 @Bellarmine L 64 - 79 45% +1  2 - 7 -20 -14 F F A+ -6 C C C
 Sun, Dec 21 300 @Alabama A&M W 73 - 66 46% +4  3 - 7 +2 +5 C+ D- A- -3 C C- F
 Thu, Jan 1 288 @UNC Greensboro L 72 - 77 43% -1  3 - 8 0 - 1 -9 -2 B- F C- -8 F F B-
 Sat, Jan 3 339 @VMI L 71 - 79 58% -8  3 - 9 0 - 2 -16 -6 F F C -10 F C- C+
 Wed, Jan 7 147 Furman L 67 - 78 36% -5  3 - 10 0 - 3 -13 -5 C+ F F -8 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 240 Samford W 88 - 79 56% +14  4 - 10 1 - 3 +1 +6 C F A+ -5 F B+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 228 @Wofford L 73 - 78 30%
 Sat, Jan 17 291 @Western Carolina L 75 - 77 44%
 Wed, Jan 21 119 East Tennessee St. L 69 - 75 30%
 Sat, Jan 24 240 @Samford L 73 - 77 35%
 Thu, Jan 29 228 Wofford W 76 - 75 52%
 Sun, Feb 1 147 @Furman L 66 - 76 19%
 Thu, Feb 5 153 Mercer L 76 - 79 38%
 Sat, Feb 7 358 The Citadel W 78 - 66 86%
 Wed, Feb 11 119 @East Tennessee St. L 66 - 78 14%
 Sat, Feb 14 291 Western Carolina W 78 - 74 66%
 Thu, Feb 19 153 @Mercer L 73 - 82 20%
 Sat, Feb 21 358 @The Citadel W 75 - 69 71%
 Thu, Feb 26 288 UNC Greensboro W 77 - 73 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 339 VMI W 78 - 70 77%
Totals 10 - 18 7 - 11 -6 -2 C- F B -4 D F D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 2.1 0.8 0.0 4.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.3 1.7 0.2 8.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.4 7.1 3.2 0.3 15.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 5.3 9.3 4.2 0.3 0.0 19.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 5.7 9.9 4.5 0.5 0.0 21.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 5.1 7.4 3.4 0.4 0.0 17.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.9 3.7 1.4 0.1 8.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.5 10th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.5 4.8 9.8 15.3 19.4 18.7 14.2 9.1 4.6 1.8 0.4 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 47.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 30.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.4% 13.2% 13.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 1.8% 10.8% 10.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6
11-7 4.6% 8.7% 8.7% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 4.2
10-8 9.1% 5.7% 5.7% 15.9 0.0 0.5 8.6
9-9 14.2% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.6 13.6
8-10 18.7% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.6 18.1
7-11 19.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.4 19.0
6-12 15.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 15.1
5-13 9.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.7
4-14 4.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.8
3-15 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.8 97.1 0.0%