Chicago St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -13.0 #349
Expected Predictive Rating -17.1 #353
Pace 69.4 #180
Improvement -1.8 #276

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #324 F D+ C C- F
Defense #348 F F B- C- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #313 0.95 #357 -6.6 #349
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% #3 0.79 #130 +7.1 #3
Three Pointers 29% #361 0.94 #275 -7.2 #348
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #345 -6.7 #347
Freethrows 15.0 #295 78% #35 11.7 #238
Second Chance 30.1% #203 0.92 #321 0.28 #274
Turnovers 16.3% #157
Total Offense -6.0 #324

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #288 1.39 #362 -1.7 #245
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #364 0.69 #100 +3.8 #2
Three Pointers 54% #4 1.04 #224 -7.5 #359
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #331 -5.4 #331
Freethrows 18.2 #227 74% #252 13.5 #122
Second Chance 35.6% #335 1.14 #299 0.41 #339
Turnovers 18.2% #84
Total Defense -7.0 #348

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -5.1% #362 1.8% #331
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.4% #307 8.5% #321
Possession Length 19.4 #346 15.5 #7
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #223 0.24 #344
Improvement -1.9 #295 +0.1 #178

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 3.5% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 16.0% 26.7% 8.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 46.4% 32.5% 56.0%
First Four2.8% 3.5% 2.3%
First Round1.1% 1.3% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Le Moyne (Home) - 40.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 30 - 40 - 11
Quad 47 - 137 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 98 @DePaul L 62 - 92 4% -13  0 - 1 -22 -6 F C+ F -15 C- F B+
 Thu, Nov 6 32 @Saint Louis L 86 - 108 1% -13  0 - 2 -5 +6 C A- D+ -7 F A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 58 @Butler L 66 - 98 2% -24  0 - 3 -20 -4 B C F -14 F F A-
 Sat, Nov 15 160 Illinois-Chicago L 63 - 67 18% +2  0 - 4 -7 -3 C F B -4 B F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 76 @Minnesota L 54 - 66 2% -6  0 - 5 -1 -7 F C+ C +4 B+ A+ B-
 Thu, Nov 20 22 @Iowa L 54 - 93 1% -18  0 - 6 -20 -2 F D A+ -24 C F F
 Tue, Nov 25 237 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 90 14% -4  0 - 7 -14 +5 D- A+ F -20 F C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 209 @Youngstown St. L 64 - 87 11% -21  0 - 8 -23 -8 F D+ B -15 F B C-
 Sat, Dec 6 91 @Illinois St. L 53 - 95 3% -30  0 - 9 -33 -12 F B F -22 F F B
 Sun, Dec 14 259 @Loyola Chicago W 84 - 75 16% +6  1 - 9 +6 +6 C- D C- +0 A+ F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 131 @Bowling Green L 55 - 76 6% -11  1 - 10 -16 -13 F D A -5 F B C
 Sat, Dec 20 31 @Indiana L 58 - 78 1% -18  1 - 11 -3 -7 C- F A+ +4 D A- A+
 Fri, Jan 2 316 Wagner L 72 - 79 47% -4  1 - 12 0 - 1 -19 -1 F F A+ -19 D F F
 Sun, Jan 4 219 LIU Brooklyn L 55 - 74 26% -11  1 - 13 0 - 2 -25 -16 F F A+ -10 F C- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 351 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 63 - 70 39% -9  1 - 14 0 - 3 -17 -11 F F F -6 D+ D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 344 @Stonehill L 82 - 85 OT 33% -3  1 - 15 0 - 4 -12 +4 D+ B+ B+ -15 F F B
 Sat, Jan 17 295 Le Moyne L 75 - 77 41%
 Mon, Jan 19 340 New Haven W 68 - 67 54%
 Fri, Jan 23 360 @St. Francis (PA) L 74 - 75 46%
 Sun, Jan 25 308 @Mercyhurst L 66 - 73 25%
 Thu, Jan 29 360 St. Francis (PA) W 77 - 72 68%
 Sat, Jan 31 308 Mercyhurst L 69 - 70 45%
 Thu, Feb 5 260 @Central Connecticut St. L 67 - 77 17%
 Sat, Feb 7 340 @New Haven L 65 - 70 33%
 Thu, Feb 12 344 Stonehill W 71 - 69 56%
 Sat, Feb 14 295 @Le Moyne L 72 - 80 22%
 Thu, Feb 19 351 Fairleigh Dickinson W 76 - 73 61%
 Sat, Feb 21 260 Central Connecticut St. L 70 - 74 34%
 Thu, Feb 26 219 @LIU Brooklyn L 69 - 82 12%
 Sat, Feb 28 316 @Wagner L 70 - 77 28%
Totals 6 - 24 5 - 13 -13 -6 F D+ C -7 F F B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.7 0.1 3.3 4th
5th 0.6 3.0 1.7 0.1 5.4 5th
6th 0.4 3.7 3.7 0.4 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.3 3.7 6.2 1.2 0.0 11.4 7th
8th 0.5 4.0 8.4 2.9 0.2 15.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 5.4 9.5 4.7 0.4 0.0 21.2 9th
10th 0.3 1.7 5.1 9.8 10.0 4.6 0.6 0.0 32.1 10th
Total 0.3 1.7 5.2 10.9 15.9 18.5 17.8 13.7 8.8 4.4 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 16.7% 0.0    0.0
12-4 10.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-5 2.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.0% 0.0
12-4 0.1% 17.9% 17.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
11-5 0.7% 10.9% 10.9% 16.0 0.1 0.6
10-6 2.0% 8.6% 8.6% 16.0 0.2 1.8
9-7 4.4% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.3 4.1
8-8 8.8% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.4 8.3
7-9 13.7% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.5 13.2
6-10 17.8% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.5 17.3
5-11 18.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.4 18.2
4-12 15.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.3 15.7
3-13 10.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 10.8
2-14 5.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.1
1-15 1.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.7
0-16 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 16.0 97.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%