Colgate
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.0 #215
Expected Predictive Rating -2.7 #213
Pace 66.5 #248
Improvement -2.9 #310

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #175 B F C+ D- D+
Defense #260 C C+ D- C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #211 1.19 #134 -0.1 #181
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #99 0.92 #24 +3.4 #40
Three Pointers 38% #236 1.11 #52 +0.7 #153
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #69 +4.0 #70
Freethrows 13.8 #333 72% #193 10.0 #321
Second Chance 25.3% #318 0.91 #326 0.23 #342
Turnovers 15.6% #122
Total Offense -0.2 #175

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #108 1.17 #187 -1.6 #240
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #201 0.67 #63 +1.1 #116
Three Pointers 39% #237 1.08 #278 -0.4 #201
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #212 -1.0 #214
Freethrows 16.5 #136 71% #107 11.6 #242
Second Chance 31.9% #234 0.92 #49 0.30 #125
Turnovers 14.0% #322
Total Defense -2.8 #260

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #264 0.6% #215
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.0% #53 1.3% #211
Possession Length 18.0 #245 17.4 #204
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #229 0.14 #62
Improvement -0.3 #202 -2.6 #320

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.5% 26.3% 20.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 83.6% 89.1% 71.7%
.500 or above in Conference 96.1% 98.1% 91.6%
Conference Champion 37.6% 44.0% 24.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four4.4% 3.9% 5.4%
First Round22.6% 24.6% 18.2%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Away) - 68.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 32 - 7
Quad 415 - 718 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 13 @Michigan St. L 69 - 80 2% -6  0 - 1 +11 +11 A+ D+ D+ -0 A+ D+ F
 Fri, Nov 7 236 Northeastern L 65 - 68 66% +1  0 - 2 -10 -11 F F B +1 A- A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 238 Drexel W 90 - 83 67% +7  1 - 2 -0 +16 A+ D F -16 F C- F
 Fri, Nov 14 8 @Illinois L 65 - 84 2% -11  1 - 3 +5 +5 A- D A+ -2 A+ D+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 177 @Siena W 72 - 69 33% +0  2 - 3 +5 +8 B+ C- B+ -3 C D- D
 Thu, Nov 20 193 @Cornell L 94 - 95 2OT 35% +0  2 - 4 -0 -7 F D C+ +7 B+ A+ B-
 Fri, Nov 28 309 Albany W 69 - 67 71% -2  3 - 4 -7 -3 B F C -3 F A+ C
 Sun, Nov 30 183 Fordham W 72 - 62 45% +9  4 - 4 +8 +6 A+ F D+ +3 B B- C+
 Wed, Dec 10 127 @St. Bonaventure L 77 - 85 23% +3  4 - 5 -3 +5 D+ B A+ -8 C B C+
 Sun, Dec 21 12 @Florida L 60 - 90 2% -17  4 - 6 -7 +4 A+ D F -13 D- F D
 Sun, Dec 28 162 Harvard L 69 - 78 51% -2  4 - 7 -12 -4 D+ D C- -9 F A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 326 @Lafayette W 85 - 77 66% +1  5 - 7 1 - 0 +1 +5 B+ F C -5 C- F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 330 @Army W 76 - 69 67% +3  6 - 7 2 - 0 -1 +9 B D- C+ -9 D+ F F
 Wed, Jan 7 239 American W 64 - 62 67% -5  7 - 7 3 - 0 -5 -0 D+ C- C+ -5 F A+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 313 Lehigh L 77 - 78 80% -2  7 - 8 3 - 1 -13 +5 B- F B- -18 F C F
 Wed, Jan 14 336 @Loyola Maryland W 77 - 72 68%
 Sat, Jan 17 318 Bucknell W 75 - 66 81%
 Wed, Jan 21 239 @American L 72 - 74 44%
 Sat, Jan 24 256 Boston University W 76 - 71 70%
 Wed, Jan 28 310 Holy Cross W 75 - 66 80%
 Sat, Jan 31 313 @Lehigh W 73 - 70 61%
 Wed, Feb 4 330 Army W 80 - 69 84%
 Sat, Feb 7 318 @Bucknell W 72 - 69 62%
 Wed, Feb 11 310 @Holy Cross W 72 - 69 60%
 Sat, Feb 14 200 Navy W 72 - 70 59%
 Mon, Feb 16 256 @Boston University L 73 - 74 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 336 Loyola Maryland W 80 - 69 85%
 Wed, Feb 25 326 Lafayette W 78 - 68 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 200 @Navy L 69 - 73 38%
Totals 16 - 13 12 - 6 -3 +0 B F C+ -3 C C+ D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.5 9.4 11.6 8.5 3.5 0.8 37.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.3 10.2 8.2 3.0 0.3 26.4 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.3 7.4 4.6 1.1 0.0 16.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 4.8 2.8 0.4 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.5 1.8 0.2 0.0 5.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.6 5.5 10.5 15.0 18.7 18.7 14.6 8.8 3.5 0.8 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8
16-2 100.0% 3.5    3.4 0.1
15-3 96.1% 8.5    7.4 1.1 0.0
14-4 79.5% 11.6    7.7 3.6 0.3
13-5 50.4% 9.4    4.3 4.0 1.0 0.1
12-6 18.6% 3.5    0.7 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 37.6% 37.6 24.3 10.4 2.5 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.8% 54.5% 54.5% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-2 3.5% 40.4% 40.4% 14.2 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.0 2.1
15-3 8.8% 37.9% 37.9% 14.8 0.1 0.9 2.1 0.3 5.5
14-4 14.6% 31.4% 31.4% 15.2 0.0 0.5 2.6 1.5 10.0
13-5 18.7% 27.5% 27.5% 15.5 0.2 2.4 2.6 13.6
12-6 18.7% 22.4% 22.4% 15.7 0.0 1.2 2.9 14.5
11-7 15.0% 19.4% 19.4% 15.8 0.5 2.4 12.1
10-8 10.5% 14.7% 14.7% 15.9 0.1 1.4 9.0
9-9 5.5% 12.9% 12.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7 4.8
8-10 2.6% 9.2% 9.2% 16.0 0.2 2.4
7-11 1.0% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9
6-12 0.3% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.5% 24.5% 0.0% 15.3 75.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 13.1 20.2 51.2 27.4 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%